--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- log: /Users/erikgartzke/Documents/RESEARCH/Papers - End/2levelliberalism/ > replication_beckley/capitalistpeace_012007.log log type: text opened on: 29 Jan 2007, 18:35:10 . set matsize 160; . use jpr128; (all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98) . compress; . describe; Contains data from jpr128.dta obs: 386,556 all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98 vars: 16 17 Dec 1998 14:56 size: 15,848,796 (94.0% of memory free) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- storage display value variable name type format label variable label ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- statea int %4.0f COW Code for State A stateb int %4.0f COW Code for State B year int %4.0f Calendar Year depa float %9.0g bilateral X+M/GDP for State A depb float %9.0g bilateral X+M/GDP for State B demauta byte %9.0g DEMOC-AUTOC: Polity III, 5-96 demautb byte %9.0g DEMOC-AUTOC: Polity III, 5-96 conttype byte %9.0g type of contig: 1=by land alliesr byte %9.0g states a&b formally allied=1 onset1 byte %9.0g onset of dispute in year+1 yrspeace byte %8.0g Time since last onset1 logdstab float %9.0g ln of capital to capital distan lncaprt float %9.0g ln of COW capability ratio imputed byte %9.0g =1 if missing trade set to 0 depa_np float %9.0g X+M/GDP, in national prices depb_np float %9.0g X+M/GDP, in national prices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sorted by: statea stateb year . summarize; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- statea | 386556 302.4356 209.1978 2 987 stateb | 386556 596.4104 206.1538 20 990 year | 386556 1976.221 10.99428 1950 1992 depa | 371857 .001133 .0100117 0 1.823015 depb | 367532 .0024756 .0159238 0 1.503916 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- demauta | 340352 .1338555 7.890643 -10 10 demautb | 346764 -1.976526 7.483284 -10 10 conttype | 386556 .1257075 .6776591 0 5 alliesr | 386556 .1203189 .3253345 0 1 onset1 | 368493 .0038264 .0617395 0 1 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- yrspeace | 368493 14.85574 10.59822 0 41 logdstab | 382786 8.243676 .7826219 1.871744 9.422935 lncaprt | 385330 2.185363 1.731572 0 12.45231 imputed | 219457 1 0 1 1 depa_np | 370483 .0009218 .0089927 0 1.167194 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- depb_np | 366090 .0019629 .0138997 0 1.215465 . *comment: unique identifier for dyad year; . gen long dyadidyr=((statea*1000000)+(stateb*1000)+(year-1000)); . la var dyadidyr "ID - unique dyad year identifier"; . *comment: unique identifier for dyad; . gen long dyadid=((statea*1000)+stateb); . la var dyadid "ID - unique dyad identifier"; . *comment: unique identifier for country year A; . gen long cntryera=((statea*10000)+year); . la var cntryera "ID - country year A"; . *comment: unique identifier for country year B; . gen long cntryerb=((stateb*10000)+year); . la var cntryerb "ID - country year B"; . la var statea "ID - COW code for state A"; . la var stateb "ID - COW code for state B"; . la var year "ID - current year"; . sort dyadidyr; . *comment: identifying Oneal and Russett's data; . la var onset1 "O&R - onset of dispute in year + 1"; . la var demauta "O&R - DEMOC-AUTOC: Polity III, 5-96"; . la var demautb "O&R - DEMOC-AUTOC: Polity III, 5-96"; . la var depa "O&R - bilateral X+M/GDP for State A"; . la var depb "O&R - bilateral X+M/GDP for State B"; . la var imputed "O&R - =1 if missing trade set to 0"; . la var depa_np "O&R - X+M/GDP, in national prices"; . la var depb_np "O&R - X+M/GDP, in national prices"; . la var alliesr "O&R - states a&b formally allied=1"; . la var conttype "O&R - type of contig: 1=by land"; . la var logdstab "O&R - ln of capital to capital distan"; . la var lncaprt "O&R - ln of COW capability ratio"; . la var yrspeace "O&R - Time since last onset1"; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING DEMOCRACY; . *comment: generating Oneal and Russett variables, Table 1 & 2; . *comment: normalize dem values on 0 to 10 scale; . *replace demauta=((demauta+10)/2); . *replace demautb=((demautb+10)/2); . *comment: lower of dyadic democracy scores, Table 1 & 2; . gen demlo=demauta if demauta<=demautb & demauta~=. & demautb~=.; (236320 missing values generated) . replace demlo=demautb if demauta>demautb & demauta~=. & demautb~=.; (155946 real changes made) . la var demlo "DEM - Lower of dyadic scores"; . *comment: higher of dyadic democracy scores, Table 1 & 2; . gen demhi=demauta if demauta>demautb & demauta~=. & demautb~=.; (230610 missing values generated) . replace demhi=demautb if demauta<=demautb & demauta~=. & demautb~=.; (150236 real changes made) . la var demhi "DEM - Higher of dyadic scores"; . *comment: joint dyadic democracy - Appendix; . gen jntdem=(demauta*demautb); (80374 missing values generated) . la var jntdem "DEM - Product of dyadic scores"; . *comment: dichotomous democracy vars - Appendix; . gen demdumya=1 if demauta>7 & demauta~=.; (268829 missing values generated) . replace demdumya=0 if demauta<=7 & demauta~=.; (222625 real changes made) . gen demdumyb=1 if demautb>7 & demautb~=.; (303789 missing values generated) . replace demdumyb=0 if demautb<=7 & demautb~=.; (263997 real changes made) . gen demdumy2=1 if demdumya==1 & demdumyb==1; (360733 missing values generated) . replace demdumy2=0 if demdumya==0; (222625 real changes made) . replace demdumy2=0 if demdumyb==0; (109472 real changes made) . la var demdumy2 "DEM - dummy both demaut>7"; . gen demdumy1=1 if demdumya==1; (268829 missing values generated) . replace demdumy1=1 if demdumyb==1; (56944 real changes made) . replace demdumy1=0 if demdumya==0 & demdumyb==0; (154525 real changes made) . la var demdumy1 "DEM - dummy either demaut>7"; . drop demdumya demdumyb; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING MARKETS; . *comment: lower of dyadic trade dependence scores, Table 1 & 2; . gen deplo=depa if depa<=depb & depa~=. & depb~=.; (81568 missing values generated) . replace deplo=depb if depa>depb & depa~=. & depb~=.; (52004 real changes made) . la var deplo "IDEP - Lower of dyadic scores"; . *comment: higher of dyadic dependence scores; . gen dephi=depa if depa>depb & depa~=. & depb~=.; (334552 missing values generated) . replace dephi=depb if depa<=depb & depa~=. & depb~=.; (304988 real changes made) . la var dephi "IDEP - Higher of dyadic scores"; . *comment: joint dependence; . gen jntdep=depa*depb; (29564 missing values generated) . la var jntdep "IDEP - Product of dyadic scores"; . *comment: lower of dyadic national price dependence scores, Gleditsch - Append > ix; . gen deplo_np=depa_np if depa_np<=depb_np & depa_np~=. & depb_np~=.; (84661 missing values generated) . replace deplo_np=depb_np if depa_np>depb_np & depa_np~=. & depb_np~=.; (52665 real changes made) . la var deplo_np "IDEP - Lower dyadic np score"; . *comment: higher of dyadic national price dependence scores; . gen dephi_np=depa_np if depa_np>depb_np & depa_np~=. & depb_np~=.; (333891 missing values generated) . replace dephi_np=depb_np if depa_np<=depb_np & depa_np~=. & depb_np~=.; (301895 real changes made) . la var dephi_np "IDEP - Higher dyadic np score"; . *comment: interdependence national prices; . gen jtdep_np=depa_np*depb_np; (31996 missing values generated) . la var jtdep_np "IDEP - Product dyadic np score"; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING CONTIGUITY; . *comment: calculate contiguity for states separated by less than 150 mi of > water, Table 1 & 2; . gen contig=1 if conttype<=4 & conttype>0 & conttype~=.; (372345 missing values generated) . replace contig=0 if contig==.; (372345 real changes made) . la var contig "DISTANCE - contiguity dummy"; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING MAJOR POWER; . *comment: identify major power dyads, Table 1 & 2 ; . gen majpdyds=1 if (statea==2 | statea==200 | statea==220 | statea==365 | > statea==710 | stateb==2 | stateb==200 | stateb==220 | stateb==365 | > stateb==710); (359056 missing values generated) . replace majpdyds=0 if majpdyds==.; (359056 real changes made) . la var majpdyds "CAP - Major power in dyad"; . *comment: constructing the Oneal and Russett version of the temporal spline, s > ee Beck, Katz, and Tucker 1998; . replace onset1=0 if onset1==.; (18063 real changes made) . *btscs onset1 year statea stateb, g(orypeace) nspline(4); . *ren _spline1 peaceyr1; . *ren _spline2 peaceyr2; . *ren _spline3 peaceyr3; . *ren _spline4 peaceyr4; . sort dyadidyr; . mkspline peaceyr 4 = yrspeace, marginal; . iis dyadid; . tis year; . drop demauta demautb depa depb imputed conttype depa_np depb_np dephi_np deplo_ > np jtdep_np yrspeace peaceyr1 peaceyr2 peaceyr3 peaceyr4; . compress; demlo was float now byte demhi was float now byte jntdem was float now byte demdumy2 was float now byte demdumy1 was float now byte contig was float now byte majpdyds was float now byte . sort dyadidyr; . order dyadidyr dyadid cntryera cntryerb statea stateb year demlo demhi jntdem d > emdumy2 demdumy1 deplo dephi > jntdep alliesr contig logdstab lncaprt majpdyds; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE; . *comment: add Maoz dyadic MID variables; . *comment: first prepare the Maoz MID data; . use dyadmid60.dta; . keep STATEA STATEB YEAR FATLEV HIHOST RECIP; . gen maoznew=1; . ren STATEA statea; . ren STATEB stateb; . ren YEAR year; . ren FATLEV fatlev; . ren HIHOST hihost; . ren RECIP recip; . gen long dyadidyr=((statea*1000000)+(stateb*1000)+(year-1000)); . replace fatlev=. if fatlev==-9; (407 real changes made, 407 to missing) . replace recip=1 if recip==-1; (2965 real changes made) . sort dyadidyr; . compress; statea was float now int stateb was float now int year was float now int fatlev was float now byte hihost was float now byte recip was float now byte maoznew was float now byte . order dyadidyr statea stateb year maoznew fatlev hihost recip; . save maozmid.dta, replace; (note: file maozmid.dta not found) file maozmid.dta saved . *comment: must first remove duplicate MID dyadyears; . use maozmid.dta; . egen highhost=max(hihost), by(dyadidyr); . drop hihost; . ren highhost hihost; . sort dyadidyr; . egen reciproc=max(recip), by(dyadidyr); . drop recip; . ren reciproc recip; . sort dyadidyr; . egen fatlevl=max(fatlev), by(dyadidyr); (297 missing values generated) . drop fatlev; . ren fatlevl fatlev; . sort dyadidyr; . drop if dyadidyr==dyadidyr[_n-1]; (547 observations deleted) . sort dyadidyr; . save temp.dta, replace; (note: file temp.dta not found) file temp.dta saved . erase maozmid.dta; . *comment: must add maoz data to dyad pop. and calculate leading dep. variable; . use dyadsamp.dta; . dyadtscs id year if year>1948 & year<1994, data(tempdyad); DYADTSCS: A Program to Generate Dyadic Time-Series--Cross-Section Data Please be patient. . . You will be informed when the program is finished! DYADTSCS started at 18:35:27 on 29 Jan 2007 DYADTSCS completed at 18:35:54 on 29 Jan 2007 Contains data from tempdyad.dta obs: 407,618 Undirected dyad years,1949-1993 vars: 3 29 Jan 2007 18:35 size: 4,076,180 (98.4% of memory free) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- storage display value variable name type format label variable label ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ida int %9.0g Cross-Section Unit 1 (id1) idb int %9.0g Cross-Section Unit 2 (id2) year int %9.0g Time-Series Unit (year) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sorted by: ida idb year . ren ida statea; . ren idb stateb; . gen long dyadidyr=((statea*1000000)+(stateb*1000)+(year-1000)); . sort dyadidyr; . merge dyadidyr using temp.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 405,702 99.08 99.08 2 | 1,852 0.45 99.53 3 | 1,916 0.47 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 409,470 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (1852 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . sort dyadidyr; . *comment: generating leading dep variable; . gen maoznewl=maoznew[_n+1] if statea==statea[_n+1] & stateb==stateb[_n+1]; (405746 missing values generated) . drop maoznew; . replace maoznewl=0 if maoznewl==.; (405746 real changes made) . gen fatlevl=fatlev[_n+1] if statea==statea[_n+1] & stateb==stateb[_n+1]; (405887 missing values generated) . replace fatlevl=0 if fatlevl==.; (405887 real changes made) . drop fatlev; . gen hihostl=hihost[_n+1] if statea==statea[_n+1] & stateb==stateb[_n+1]; (405746 missing values generated) . replace hihostl=0 if hihostl==.; (405746 real changes made) . drop hihost; . gen recipl=recip[_n+1] if statea==statea[_n+1] & stateb==stateb[_n+1]; (405746 missing values generated) . replace recipl=0 if recipl==.; (405746 real changes made) . drop recip; . gen warl=0 if hihostl~=.; . replace warl=1 if hihostl==5; (238 real changes made) . gen deadlyl=0 if fatlevl~=.; . replace deadlyl=1 if fatlevl>=1; (401 real changes made) . save tempdyad.dta, replace; file tempdyad.dta saved . *comment: now add Maoz dyad data to Oneal and Russett data; . use capitalistpeace_012007.dta; (all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98) . merge dyadidyr using tempdyad.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 2 | 21,062 5.17 5.17 3 | 386,556 94.83 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 407,618 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (21062 observations deleted) . rename _merge sample; . la var sample "MERGE - 1= O&R,2=MAOZ,3=both"; . la var maoznew "MID - Maoz dyadic onset"; . la var maoznewl "MID - lead Maoz dyadic onset"; . la var fatlevl "MID - lead Maoz fatality level"; . la var hihostl "MID - lead Maoz hi hostility"; . la var recipl "MID - lead Maoz recip dummy?"; . la var warl "MID - lead Maoz wars"; . la var deadlyl "MID - lead Maoz deadly MID"; . *comment: discrepancies between the Maoz and O&R dep. variable; . tab onset1 maoznewl; O&R - | onset of | MID - lead Maoz dispute in | dyadic onset year + 1 | 0 1 | Total -----------+----------------------+---------- 0 | 384,568 578 | 385,146 1 | 156 1,254 | 1,410 -----------+----------------------+---------- Total | 384,724 1,832 | 386,556 . drop onset1; . *comment: MIDs in Maoz that are selected out of the O&R sample; . tab maoznewl sample; MID - lead | MERGE - 1= Maoz | O&R,2=MAOZ dyadic | ,3=both onset | 3 | Total -----------+-----------+---------- 0 | 384,724 | 384,724 1 | 1,832 | 1,832 -----------+-----------+---------- Total | 386,556 | 386,556 . btscs warl year statea stateb, g(waryrs) nspline(3); . sort dyadidyr; . ren _spline1 waryear1; . ren _spline2 waryear2; . ren _spline3 waryear3; . btscs deadlyl year statea stateb, g(deadyrs) nspline(3); . sort dyadidyr; . ren _spline1 deadyer1; . ren _spline2 deadyer2; . ren _spline3 deadyer3; . btscs maoznewl year statea stateb, g(maozyrs) nspline(3); . sort dyadidyr; . drop fatlevl hihostl recipl; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . erase temp.dta; . erase tempdyad.dta; . *comment: adding capability data; . merge dyadidyr using capabil.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 2 | 163,837 29.77 29.77 3 | 386,556 70.23 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 550,393 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (163837 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . sort dyadidyr; . gen cinclo=cinca if cinca<=cincb & cinca~=. & cincb~=.; (185148 missing values generated) . replace cinclo=cincb if cinca>cincb & cinca~=. & cincb~=.; (184691 real changes made) . la var cinclo "CINC - Lower of dyadic scores"; . gen cinchi=cincb if cincb>=cinca & cinca~=. & cincb~=.; (185148 missing values generated) . replace cinchi=cinca if cinca>cincb & cinca~=. & cincb~=.; (184691 real changes made) . la var cinchi "CINC - Higher of dyadic scores"; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING REGIONAL DUMMIES; . gen region=0; . replace region=rega if rega==regb; (76403 real changes made, 1 to missing) . drop rega regb; . gen namerica=0; . replace namerica=1 if region==1 & statea<100 & stateb<100; (6061 real changes made) . gen samerica=0; . replace samerica=1 if region==1 & statea>99 & stateb>99; (2403 real changes made) . gen europe=0; . replace europe=1 if region==2; (17169 real changes made) . gen africa=0; . replace africa=1 if region==3; (25842 real changes made) . gen nafmeast=0; . replace nafmeast=1 if region==4; (6509 real changes made) . gen asia=0; . replace asia=1 if region==5; (9928 real changes made) . gen pacific=0; . replace pacific=1 if region==6; (388 real changes made) . drop region; . compress; maoznewl was float now byte warl was float now byte deadlyl was float now byte namerica was float now byte samerica was float now byte europe was float now byte africa was float now byte nafmeast was float now byte asia was float now byte pacific was float now byte . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING ALLIANCE; . *comment: adding third party alliance ties - Appendix; . *comment: preparing the raw data; . use 3rdpartyallymod.dta; . sort dyadidyr; . drop midno all11 all22 sum2type; . ren side1 statea; . ren side2 stateb; . ren midstart year; . egen linktype=min(ltype), by(dyadidyr); . drop ltype; . sort dyadidyr; . egen thirdeth=max(midc), by(dyadidyr); . drop midc; . sort dyadidyr; . egen statalya=min(type11), by(dyadidyr); (4766 missing values generated) . drop type11; . sort dyadidyr; . egen statalyb=min(type22), by(dyadidyr); (8376 missing values generated) . drop type22; . sort dyadidyr; . egen bondbond=min(str2bond), by(dyadidyr); (13401 missing values generated) . drop str2bond; . sort dyadidyr; . drop if dyadidyr==dyadidyr[_n-1]; (219482 observations deleted) . save temp.dta; file temp.dta saved . *comment: adding the set of second year dyads; . gen mark=1 if midend>year & midend~=. & year~=.; (73123 missing values generated) . drop if mark==.; (73123 observations deleted) . gen yer=year+1; . drop dyadidyr year mark; . ren yer year; . move year thirdeth; . gen long dyadidyr = ((statea*1000000)+(stateb*1000)+(year-1000)); . move dyadidyr linktype; . sort dyadidyr; . des; Contains data from temp.dta obs: 16,640 vars: 10 29 Jan 2007 18:37 size: 632,320 (99.8% of memory free) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- storage display value variable name type format label variable label ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- statea int %8.0g smaller COW ID stateb int %8.0g larger COW ID midend int %8.0g end year of dispute dyadidyr long %12.0g linktype float %9.0g year float %9.0g thirdeth float %9.0g statalya float %9.0g statalyb float %9.0g bondbond float %9.0g ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sorted by: dyadidyr Note: dataset has changed since last saved . append using temp.dta; . gen thirdpty=1 if linktype==2; (31974 missing values generated) . gen fourprty=1 if linktype==1; (74429 missing values generated) . replace thirdpty=0 if thirdpty==.; (31974 real changes made) . replace fourprty=0 if fourprty==.; (74429 real changes made) . sort dyadidyr thirdpty fourprty; . drop if dyadidyr==dyadidyr[_n+1]; (10585 observations deleted) . sort dyadidyr; . drop linktype midend; . move fourprty thirdeth; . move thirdpty fourprty; . save tempdyad.dta; file tempdyad.dta saved . *comment: now add third party data; . use capitalistpeace_012007.dta; (all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98) . merge dyadidyr using tempdyad.dta; year was int now float . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 303,834 76.02 76.02 2 | 13,096 3.28 79.30 3 | 82,722 20.70 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 399,652 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (13096 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . drop statalya statalyb; . replace thirdpty=0 if thirdpty==.; (303834 real changes made) . replace fourprty=0 if fourprty==.; (303834 real changes made) . replace thirdeth=0 if thirdeth==.; (303834 real changes made) . la var thirdpty "ALLY - initial vs. enemy ally A-C/B-D"; . la var fourprty "ALLY - ally vs. ally link C-D/D-C"; . la var thirdeth "ALLY - is initial dispute deadly?"; . *la var statalya "alliance type for A"; . *la var statalyb "alliance type for B"; . la var bondbond "ALLY - 1=2defpacs,2=defpacentent,3=2entents, etc."; . drop cinca cincb bondbond thirdeth; . sort dyadidyr; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . erase temp.dta; . erase tempdyad.dta; . *comment: merging GDP (development) and trade data; . *comment: each dataset must be merged twice (once for each actor in the dyad); . *comment: GDP data; . sort cntryera; . rename cntryera cntryer; . merge cntryer using pwtmod.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 6,994 1.81 1.81 2 | 459 0.12 1.93 3 | 379,562 98.07 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 387,015 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (459 observations deleted) . drop _merge state origin; . rename cntryer cntryera; . rename pop popa; . rename rgdp85pc rgdp85pa; . rename gdppc gdppca; . *replace rgdp85pa=ln(rgdp85pa); . la var popa "PWT - population (1000's) A"; . la var rgdp85pa "PWT - ln. real percap GDP A"; . la var gdppca "PWT - GDP percap A"; . sort cntryerb; . rename cntryerb cntryer; . merge cntryer using pwtmod.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 3,067 0.79 0.79 2 | 459 0.12 0.91 3 | 383,489 99.09 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 387,015 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (459 observations deleted) . drop _merge state origin; . rename cntryer cntryerb; . rename pop popb; . rename rgdp85pc rgdp85pb; . rename gdppc gdppcb; . *replace rgdp85pb=ln(rgdp85pb); . la var popb "PWT - population (1000's) B"; . la var rgdp85pb "PWT - ln. real percap GDP B"; . la var gdppcb "PWT - GDP percap B"; . compress; year was float now int thirdpty was float now byte fourprty was float now byte . sort dyadidyr; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: bringing in data for markets; . use gleditschtrade.dta; . gen long cntryer=((statea*10000)+year); . sort cntryer; . gen exptimpt=(export+import); . egen open=sum(exptimpt), by(cntryer); . drop exptimpt cntryer; . sort dyadidyr; . save temp.dta, replace; (note: file temp.dta not found) file temp.dta saved . *comment: merging the trade data; . use capitalistpeace_012007.dta; (all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98) . sort dyadidyr; . merge dyadidyr using temp.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 10,018 0.97 0.97 2 | 649,014 62.67 63.64 3 | 376,538 36.36 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 1,035,570 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (649014 observations deleted) . drop _merge export_t import_t; . gen tradea=(((import+export)*1000)/(gdppca*popa)); (10018 missing values generated) . gen opena=(open*1000/(gdppca*popa)); (10018 missing values generated) . drop gdppca open import export; . ren dyadidyr dyadtemp; . gen long dyadidyr=((stateb*1000000)+(statea*1000)+(year-1000)); . sort dyadidyr; . merge dyadidyr using temp.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 10,018 0.97 0.97 2 | 649,014 62.67 63.64 3 | 376,538 36.36 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 1,035,570 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (649014 observations deleted) . drop _merge export_t import_t; . gen tradeb=(((import+export)*1000)/(gdppcb*popb)); (10018 missing values generated) . gen openb=(open*1000/(gdppcb*popb)); (10018 missing values generated) . drop gdppcb open import export dyadidyr; . ren dyadtemp dyadidyr; . sort dyadidyr; . la var tradea "PWT - imports+exports/GDP"; . la var tradeb "PWT - imports+exports/GDP"; . la var opena "PWT - sum(import+export)/GDP"; . la var openb "PWT - sum(import+export)/GDP"; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING DEVELOPMENT; . *comment: constructing dyadic measures of GDPPC, Table 1 & 2; . gen rgdppclo = rgdp85pa if rgdp85pa<= rgdp85pb & rgdp85pa~=. & rgdp85pb~=.; (230634 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo = rgdp85pb if rgdp85pa> rgdp85pb & rgdp85pa~=. & rgdp85pb~=.; (220616 real changes made) . la var rgdppclo "PWT - Lower of dyadic GDP scores"; . gen rgdppchi = rgdp85pb if rgdp85pb>= rgdp85pa & rgdp85pa~=. & rgdp85pb~=.; (230634 missing values generated) . replace rgdppchi = rgdp85pa if rgdp85pa> rgdp85pb & rgdp85pa~=. & rgdp85pb~=.; (220616 real changes made) . la var rgdppchi "PWT - Higher of dyadic GDP scores"; . gen rgdppcl2=rgdppclo*rgdppclo; (10018 missing values generated) . la var rgdppcl2 "PWT - Lower dyadic GDP score^2"; . gen rgdpdist=rgdppclo/logdstab; (13716 missing values generated) . la var rgdpdist "PWT - inter, rgdppclo/dist"; . gen rgdppcln = ln(rgdppclo); (10018 missing values generated) . la var rgdppclo "PWT - ln of lower GDP scores"; . gen rgdppchn = ln(rgdppchi); (10018 missing values generated) . la var rgdppchi "PWT - ln of higher GDP scores"; . gen rgdpcln2=rgdppcln*rgdppcln; (10018 missing values generated) . la var rgdpcln2 "PWT - ln of lower GDP score^2"; . gen gdpdisln=((ln(rgdppclo))/logdstab); (13716 missing values generated) . la var gdpdisln "PWT - ln of rgdppclo/dist"; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING MARKETS; . *comment: Trade Dependence, Table 1 & 2; . gen tradelo=tradea if tradea<=tradeb & tradea~=. & tradeb~=.; (104173 missing values generated) . replace tradelo=tradeb if tradea>tradeb & tradea~=. & tradeb~=.; (94155 real changes made) . la var tradelo "TRADE - Lower of dyadic scores"; . gen tradehi=tradea if tradea>tradeb & tradea~=. & tradeb~=.; (292401 missing values generated) . replace tradehi=tradeb if tradea<=tradeb & tradea~=. & tradeb~=.; (282383 real changes made) . la var tradehi "TRADE - Higher of dyadic scores"; . gen jnttrade=tradea*tradeb; (10018 missing values generated) . la var jnttrade "TRADE - tradea*tradeb"; . *comment: IMF financial openness - Appendix; . gen openlo=opena if opena<=openb & opena~=. & openb~=.; (218436 missing values generated) . replace openlo=openb if opena>openb & opena~=. & openb~=.; (208418 real changes made) . la var openlo "TRADE - Lower of openness"; . *comment: generate interaction term, demlo and rgdppclo - Appendix; . gen demgdplo = demlo*rgdppclo; (84732 missing values generated) . la var demgdplo "Mousseau - dev*dem interaction term"; . gen demgdpln = demlo*(ln(rgdppclo)); (84732 missing values generated) . la var demgdpln "Mousseau - ln(dev)*dem interaction term"; . *comment: generate interaction term, lnrgdppc and contig, Table 1 & 2; . gen gdpcontg = rgdppclo*contig; (10018 missing values generated) . la var gdpcontg "GDP - wealth discourages conquest"; . gen gdplnctg = (ln(rgdppclo))*contig; (10018 missing values generated) . la var gdplnctg "GDP - wealth discourages conquest"; . compress; rgdppclo was float now int gdpcontg was float now int . sort dyadidyr; . drop popa rgdp85pa popb rgdp85pb tradea opena tradeb openb; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . erase temp.dta; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING INTERESTS, Table 1 & 2; . *comment: add the measure of national interest similarity; . merge dyadidyr using affinity.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 8,135 0.86 0.86 2 | 556,715 59.02 59.88 3 | 378,421 40.12 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 943,271 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (556715 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . sort dyadidyr; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: calculating residuals of affinity; . regress sun2cati demlo demhi; Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 269234 -------------+------------------------------ F( 2,269231) = 9480.46 Model | 2515.3805 2 1257.69025 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 35716.5463269231 .132661344 R-squared = 0.0658 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.0658 Total | 38231.9268269233 .142003123 Root MSE = .36423 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ sun2cati | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0063235 .0001378 45.88 0.000 .0060534 .0065937 demhi | -.0146121 .0001068 -136.77 0.000 -.0148215 -.0144027 _cons | .7898536 .0011475 688.31 0.000 .7876045 .7921028 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . predict temppred; (option xb assumed; fitted values) (80374 missing values generated) . gen residsun=sun2cati-temppred; (117322 missing values generated) . drop temppred; . la var residsun "AFFINITY - sun2cati unexplained by demlo, demhi"; . *comment: adding igo similarity - Appendix; . merge dyadidyr using similarigo.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 155 0.03 0.03 2 | 129,894 25.15 25.18 3 | 386,401 74.82 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 516,450 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (129894 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . compress; . sort dyadidyr; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING MARKETS - Appendix; . *comment: merging IMF capital variables; . merge dyadidyr using IMFcapdata.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 2 | 1,095 0.28 0.28 3 | 386,556 99.72 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 387,651 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (1095 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . gen capdumy=0; . replace capdumy=1 if capitall>=5 & capitall~=.; (15866 real changes made) . la var capopenl "IMF - govt financial openness, low"; . la var capopenh "IMF - govt financial openness, high"; . la var fdi_gdpl "IMF - gross fdi over gdp ppp, low"; . la var fdi_gdph "IMF - gross fdi over gdp ppp, high"; . la var ceq_gdpl "IMF - cum. equity invest/gdpppp, low"; . la var ceq_gdph "IMF - cum. equity invest/gdpppp, high"; . la var portfl "IMF - portfolio invest, % of gdp-ppp, low"; . la var portfh "IMF - portfolio invest, % of gdp-ppp, high"; . la var capitall "IMF - gross priv cap flows, % of gdp-ppp, low"; . la var capitalh "IMF - gross priv cap flows, % of gdp-ppp, high"; . la var capdumy "IMF - dummy, 1 if capitall>=5"; . compress; capdumy was float now byte . sort dyadidyr; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: constructing, merging and assessing the economic liberalism data; . *comment: constructing sample; . use esplccod; . cross using esplyear; . gen long cntryer=((ccode*10000)+year); . sort cntryer; . order cntryer ccode year; . merge cntryer using econlib.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 2,604 75.00 75.00 3 | 868 25.00 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 3,472 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (0 observations deleted) . sort cntryer; . drop _merge; . *comment: substituting values for missing; . gen econfree=econfre; (2761 missing values generated) . replace econfree=econfree[_n-1] if econfree==. & econfree[_n-1]~=. & > ccode==ccode[_n-1]; (2016 real changes made) . *comment: interpolating data; . ipolate econfre year, g(ieconfre) by(ccode); (764 missing values generated) . sort cntryer; . ipolate govsize year, g(igovsize) by(ccode); (329 missing values generated) . sort cntryer; . ipolate econstru year, g(ieconstr) by(ccode); (1395 missing values generated) . sort cntryer; . ipolate monpolcy year, g(imonplcy) by(ccode); (311 missing values generated) . sort cntryer; . ipolate altmoney year, g(ialtmony) by(ccode); (224 missing values generated) . sort cntryer; . ipolate proprite year, g(iproprit) by(ccode); (1039 missing values generated) . sort cntryer; . ipolate freetrad year, g(ifretrad) by(ccode); (736 missing values generated) . sort cntryer; . ipolate freecapm year, g(ifrecapm) by(ccode); (901 missing values generated) . sort cntryer; . compress; ccode was float now int year was float now int . save elibdata.dta, replace; (note: file elibdata.dta not found) file elibdata.dta saved . *comment: now merging economic liberalism data; . use capitalistpeace_012007.dta; (all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98) . keep dyadidyr cntryera cntryerb year; . drop if year < 1970; (108651 observations deleted) . rename cntryera cntryer; . sort cntryer; . merge cntryer using elibdata.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 62,304 22.35 22.35 2 | 868 0.31 22.66 3 | 215,601 77.34 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 278,773 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (868 observations deleted) . drop _merge govsize econstru monpolcy altmoney proprite freetrad freecapm; . ren cntryer cntryera; . ren cntryerb cntryer; . ren econfre econfrea; . ren econfree ecofreea; . ren ieconfre iecofrea; . sort cntryer; . merge cntryer using elibdata.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 89,346 32.05 32.05 2 | 885 0.32 32.37 3 | 188,559 67.63 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 278,790 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (885 observations deleted) . drop _merge govsize econstru monpolcy altmoney proprite freetrad freecapm; . rename cntryer cntryerb; . ren econfre econfreb; . ren econfree ecofreeb; . ren ieconfre iecofreb; . sort dyadidyr; . *comment: lower of economic liberalism indicators; . gen econfrel=econfrea if econfrea<=econfreb & econfrea~=. & econfreb~=.; (268000 missing values generated) . replace econfrel=econfreb if econfrea>econfreb & econfrea~=. & econfreb~=.; (12503 real changes made) . la var econfrel "ECONLIB - Lower econ lib 5 year"; . gen iecofrel=iecofrea if iecofrea<=iecofreb & iecofrea~=. & iecofreb~=.; (233714 missing values generated) . replace iecofrel=iecofreb if iecofrea>iecofreb & iecofrea~=. & iecofreb~=.; (55606 real changes made) . la var iecofrel "ECONLIB - ipolate lower econ lib all years"; . drop cntryera cntryerb ccode econfrea ecofreea iecofrea econfreb ecofreeb > iecofreb; . drop igovsize ieconstr imonplcy ialtmony iproprit ifretrad ifrecapm; . gen elibdumy=1 if iecofrel~=.; (178108 missing values generated) . la var elibdumy "ECONLIB - dummy for sample"; . order dyadidyr year elibdumy; . compress; elibdumy was float now byte . save temp2.dta, replace; (note: file temp2.dta not found) file temp2.dta saved . erase elibdata.dta; . *comment: merge the economic liberalism data with the larger dataset; . use capitalistpeace_012007.dta; (all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98) . merge dyadidyr using temp2.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 108,651 28.11 28.11 3 | 277,905 71.89 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 386,556 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (0 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . replace elibdumy=0 if elibdumy==.; (286759 real changes made) . sort dyadidyr; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . erase temp2.dta; . *comment: merging the Quinn openness variable; . use dqamt5099_mod2.dta, replace; . gen long cntryer=((state*10000)+year); . move cntryer state; . keep cntryer capital; . sort cntryer; . compress; . save tempfile.dta, replace; (note: file tempfile.dta not found) file tempfile.dta saved . *comment: the data must be merged twice (once for each actor in the dyad); . use capitalistpeace_012007.dta; (all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98) . sort cntryera; . rename cntryera cntryer; . merge cntryer using tempfile.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 285,317 73.69 73.69 2 | 626 0.16 73.85 3 | 101,239 26.15 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 387,182 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (626 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . ren cntryer cntryera; . ren capital capitala; . la var capitala "QUINN - Quinn capital account openness A"; . sort cntryerb; . rename cntryerb cntryer; . merge cntryer using tempfile.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 312,899 80.81 80.81 2 | 648 0.17 80.98 3 | 73,657 19.02 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 387,204 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (648 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . ren cntryer cntryerb; . ren capital capitalb; . la var capitalb "QUINN - Quinn capital account openness B"; . *comment: generating dyadic variables; . gen capitalo=capitala if capitalacapitala & capitala~=. & capitalb~=.; (379948 missing values generated) . replace capitlhi=capitala if capitala>=capitalb & capitala~=. & capitalb~=.; (15515 real changes made) . la var capitlhi "QUINN - higher of dyadic scores"; . gen jtcapitl=capitala*capitalb; (364433 missing values generated) . la var jtcapitl "QUINN - capitala*capitalb"; . *comment: interpolating data; . sort cntryera; . ipolate capitala year, g(icapitla) by(statea); (190431 missing values generated) . sort cntryerb; . ipolate capitalb year, g(icapitlb) by(stateb); (222206 missing values generated) . gen icapitlo=icapitla if icapitlakaopena & kaopena~=. & kaopenb~=.; (353586 missing values generated) . replace kaopenhi=kaopena if kaopena>=kaopenb & kaopena~=. & kaopenb~=.; (48896 real changes made) . la var kaopenhi "KAOPEN - higher of dyadic scores"; . gen jtkaopen=kaopena*kaopenb; (304690 missing values generated) . la var jtkaopen "KAOPEN - kaopena*kaopenb"; . compress; . sort dyadidyr; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . erase tempfile.dta; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING ALLIANCE - Appendix; . *comment: merging and assessing the EU dummy data; . *comment: the data must be merged twice (once for each actor in the dyad); . sort statea; . rename statea state; . merge state using natowarsaw.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 297,780 77.03 77.03 2 | 1 0.00 77.03 3 | 88,776 22.97 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 386,557 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (1 observation deleted) . drop _merge; . ren state statea; . gen natoa=0; . gen warsawa=0; . replace natoa=1 if nstrtyer~=. & nstrtyer<=year & nendyear>=year; (57191 real changes made) . replace warsawa=1 if wpstrtyer~=. & wpstrtyer<=year & wpendyer>=year; (20995 real changes made) . drop nstrtyer nendyear wpstrtyer wpendyer; . sort stateb; . rename stateb state; . merge state using natowarsaw.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 347,236 89.83 89.83 2 | 2 0.00 89.83 3 | 39,320 10.17 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 386,558 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (2 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . ren state stateb; . gen natob=0; . gen warsawb=0; . replace natob=1 if nstrtyer~=. & nstrtyer<=year & nendyear>=year; (23766 real changes made) . replace warsawb=1 if wpstrtyer~=. & wpstrtyer<=year & wpendyer>=year; (10665 real changes made) . drop nstrtyer nendyear wpstrtyer wpendyer; . gen bothnato=0; . replace bothnato=1 if natoa==1 & natob==1; (4185 real changes made) . la var bothnato "NATO dummy"; . gen bothwarsaw=0; . replace bothwarsaw=1 if warsawa==1 & warsawb==1; (639 real changes made) . la var bothwarsaw "WARSAW dummy"; . drop natoa natob warsawa warsawb; . gen bothboth=bothnato; . replace bothboth=1 if bothwarsaw==1; (639 real changes made) . la var bothboth "NATO & WARSAW dummy"; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING NUCLEAR POWER STATUS - Appendix; . gen nucleara=0; . replace nucleara=1 if statea==2 & year>=1945; (5586 real changes made) . replace nucleara=1 if statea==365 & year>=1949; (3434 real changes made) . replace nucleara=1 if statea==200 & year>=1952; (4287 real changes made) . replace nucleara=1 if statea==220 & year>=1960; (3630 real changes made) . replace nucleara=1 if statea==710 & year>=1964; (760 real changes made) . replace nucleara=1 if stateb==666 & year>=1966; (2994 real changes made) . replace nucleara=1 if statea==560 & year>=1979 & year<=1991; (754 real changes made) . replace nucleara=1 if statea==750 & year>=1988; (119 real changes made) . replace nucleara=1 if statea==770 & year>=1987; (130 real changes made) . gen nuclearb=0; . replace nuclearb=1 if stateb==2 & year>=1945; (0 real changes made) . replace nuclearb=1 if stateb==365 & year>=1949; (2152 real changes made) . replace nuclearb=1 if stateb==200 & year>=1952; (1151 real changes made) . replace nuclearb=1 if stateb==220 & year>=1960; (1140 real changes made) . replace nuclearb=1 if stateb==710 & year>=1964; (3560 real changes made) . replace nuclearb=1 if statea==666 & year>=1966; (947 real changes made) . replace nuclearb=1 if stateb==560 & year>=1979 & year<=1991; (1313 real changes made) . replace nuclearb=1 if stateb==750 & year>=1988; (712 real changes made) . replace nuclearb=1 if stateb==770 & year>=1987; (860 real changes made) . gen nuclear1=0; . replace nuclear1=1 if nucleara==1; (21694 real changes made) . replace nuclear1=1 if nuclearb==1; (11361 real changes made) . la var nuclear1 "NUKE - either state has nukes"; . gen nuclear2=0; . replace nuclear2=1 if nucleara==1 & nuclearb==1; (474 real changes made) . drop nucleara nuclearb; . la var nuclear2 "NUKE - both states have nukes"; . *comment: OPERATIONALIZING DEMOCRACY - Appendix; . *comment: merging and assessing the Polity IV democracy data; . *comment: the data must be merged twice (once for each actor in the dyad); . sort cntryera; . rename cntryera cntryer; . merge cntryer using polity98mod.dta; cntryer was long now double . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 33,466 8.45 8.45 2 | 9,394 2.37 10.82 3 | 353,090 89.18 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 395,950 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (9394 observations deleted) . drop _merge state; . ren cntryer cntryera; . replace democ=. if democ<0; (10508 real changes made, 10508 to missing) . replace autoc=. if autoc<0; (10508 real changes made, 10508 to missing) . ren democ democa; . ren autoc autoca; . ren durable durablea; . gen ceddema=0; . replace ceddema=1 if democa>=6; (184868 real changes made) . gen demautaa=((democa-autoca+10)/2); (43974 missing values generated) . drop democa autoca; . la var demautaa "POLITY - (democa-autoca+10)/2"; . la var durablea "POLITY - years of regime duration"; . sort cntryerb; . rename cntryerb cntryer; . merge cntryer using polity98mod.dta; cntryer was long now double . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 22,518 5.69 5.69 2 | 9,411 2.38 8.06 3 | 364,038 91.94 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 395,967 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (9411 observations deleted) . drop _merge state; . ren cntryer cntryerb; . replace democ=. if democ<0; (13024 real changes made, 13024 to missing) . replace autoc=. if autoc<0; (13024 real changes made, 13024 to missing) . ren democ democb; . ren autoc autocb; . ren durable durableb; . gen ceddemb=0; . replace ceddemb=1 if democb>=6; (137174 real changes made) . gen demautbb=((democb-autocb+10)/2); (35542 missing values generated) . drop democb autocb; . la var demautbb "POLITY - (democa-autoca+10)/2"; . la var durableb "POLITY - years of regime duration"; . sort dyadidyr; . *comment: constructing dyadic measures; . gen politylo=demautaa if demautaademautaa & demautaa~=. & demautbb~=.; (275613 missing values generated) . replace polityhi=demautaa if demautaa>=demautbb & demautaa~=. & demautbb~=.; (200971 real changes made) . la var polityhi "POLITY - Higher of dyadic scores"; . gen jtpolity=(demautaa*demautbb); (74642 missing values generated) . la var jtpolity "POLITY - Product of dyadic scores"; . gen durabllo=durablea if durablea=6"; . la var ceddem2 "CEDERMAN - both democ>=6"; . *comment: generating Cederman learning variables; . gen demyear1=ceddem1*year; . gen demyear2=ceddem2*year; . gen autyear1=(1-ceddem1)*year; . gen autyear2=(1-ceddem2)*year; . la var demyear1 "CEDERMAN - ceddem1*year"; . la var demyear2 "CEDERMAN - ceddem2*year"; . la var autyear1 "CEDERMAN - (1-ceddem1)*year"; . la var autyear2 "CEDERMAN - (1-ceddem2)*year"; . compress; bothnato was float now byte bothwarsaw was float now byte bothboth was float now byte nuclear1 was float now byte nuclear2 was float now byte durabllo was float now byte ceddem1 was float now byte ceddem2 was float now byte demyear1 was float now int demyear2 was float now int autyear1 was float now int autyear2 was float now int cntryera was double now long cntryerb was double now long . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: discrepancies between Polity IV data and Oneal & Russett democracy; . corr demlo politylo; (obs=302869) | demlo politylo -------------+------------------ demlo | 1.0000 politylo | 0.9889 1.0000 . corr demhi polityhi; (obs=302869) | demhi polityhi -------------+------------------ demhi | 1.0000 polityhi | 0.9922 1.0000 . tab demlo; DEM - Lower | of dyadic | scores | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- -10 | 23,548 7.69 7.69 -9 | 65,421 21.37 29.06 -8 | 27,121 8.86 37.92 -7 | 97,354 31.80 69.71 -6 | 15,042 4.91 74.62 -5 | 10,472 3.42 78.04 -4 | 2,912 0.95 79.00 -3 | 5,898 1.93 80.92 -2 | 3,178 1.04 81.96 -1 | 3,830 1.25 83.21 0 | 1,924 0.63 83.84 1 | 2,953 0.96 84.80 2 | 3,347 1.09 85.90 3 | 2,041 0.67 86.56 4 | 4,906 1.60 88.17 5 | 3,589 1.17 89.34 6 | 2,256 0.74 90.07 7 | 4,567 1.49 91.57 8 | 7,450 2.43 94.00 9 | 5,524 1.80 95.80 10 | 12,849 4.20 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 306,182 100.00 . tab politylo; POLITY - | Lower of | dyadic | scores | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 0 | 23,830 7.64 7.64 .5 | 63,457 20.34 27.98 1 | 29,452 9.44 37.43 1.5 | 103,514 33.19 70.61 2 | 13,557 4.35 74.96 2.5 | 9,694 3.11 78.07 3 | 3,050 0.98 79.05 3.5 | 5,786 1.85 80.90 4 | 3,188 1.02 81.92 4.5 | 4,070 1.30 83.23 5 | 2,545 0.82 84.04 5.5 | 3,065 0.98 85.03 6 | 3,533 1.13 86.16 6.5 | 1,583 0.51 86.67 7 | 4,313 1.38 88.05 7.5 | 4,646 1.49 89.54 8 | 3,342 1.07 90.61 8.5 | 3,925 1.26 91.87 9 | 8,265 2.65 94.52 9.5 | 5,755 1.85 96.36 10 | 11,344 3.64 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 311,914 100.00 . tab demhi; DEM - | Higher of | dyadic | scores | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- -10 | 434 0.14 0.14 -9 | 7,295 2.38 2.52 -8 | 6,042 1.97 4.50 -7 | 51,628 16.86 21.36 -6 | 13,357 4.36 25.72 -5 | 11,038 3.61 29.33 -4 | 3,425 1.12 30.45 -3 | 7,087 2.31 32.76 -2 | 4,559 1.49 34.25 -1 | 4,869 1.59 35.84 0 | 2,850 0.93 36.77 1 | 4,041 1.32 38.09 2 | 4,716 1.54 39.63 3 | 3,492 1.14 40.77 4 | 8,352 2.73 43.50 5 | 6,783 2.22 45.71 6 | 4,258 1.39 47.10 7 | 10,299 3.36 50.47 8 | 19,252 6.29 56.76 9 | 19,147 6.25 63.01 10 | 113,258 36.99 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 306,182 100.00 . tab polityhi; POLITY - | Higher of | dyadic | scores | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 0 | 434 0.14 0.14 .5 | 6,749 2.16 2.30 1 | 6,413 2.06 4.36 1.5 | 55,555 17.81 22.17 2 | 12,459 3.99 26.16 2.5 | 9,768 3.13 29.30 3 | 3,680 1.18 30.48 3.5 | 6,832 2.19 32.67 4 | 4,433 1.42 34.09 4.5 | 5,484 1.76 35.85 5 | 3,486 1.12 36.96 5.5 | 4,811 1.54 38.51 6 | 5,073 1.63 40.13 6.5 | 2,713 0.87 41.00 7 | 7,490 2.40 43.40 7.5 | 8,593 2.75 46.16 8 | 6,493 2.08 48.24 8.5 | 9,261 2.97 51.21 9 | 22,173 7.11 58.32 9.5 | 21,847 7.00 65.32 10 | 108,167 34.68 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 311,914 100.00 . gen marker=1111111 if demlo>politylo & demlo~=. & politylo~=.; (383841 missing values generated) . tab marker; marker | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1111111 | 2,715 100.00 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 2,715 100.00 . gen marker2=1111111 if demloidb & ida~=. & idb~=.; (183928 real changes made) . la var idlo "VANDEM - Lower of dyadic scores"; . gen idhi=ida if ida>idb & ida~=. & idb~=.; (202628 missing values generated) . replace idhi=idb if ida<=idb & ida~=. & idb~=.; (194829 real changes made) . la var idhi "VANDEM - Higher of dyadic scores"; . gen jntid=(ida*idb); (7799 missing values generated) . la var jntid "VANDEM - Product of dyadic scores"; . compress; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: merging and assessing the freedomhouse (Gastil) democracy data; . *comment: the data must be merged twice (once for each actor in the dyad); . sort cntryera; . rename cntryera cntryer; . merge cntryer using freedomhouse.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 127,153 32.71 32.71 2 | 2,120 0.55 33.26 3 | 259,403 66.74 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 388,676 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (2120 observations deleted) . drop _merge ccode; . ren cntryer cntryera; . ren freeindx freeinda; . gen gastdema=(14-(polright+civlib)); (127407 missing values generated) . drop polright civlib; . la var gastdema "GASTIL - 14-(polritea+civliba) (0 - 12)"; . la var freeinda "GASTIL - for A: 0=NF,1=PF,2=F"; . sort cntryerb; . rename cntryerb cntryer; . merge cntryer using freedomhouse.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 127,153 32.71 32.71 2 | 2,120 0.55 33.26 3 | 259,403 66.74 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 388,676 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (2120 observations deleted) . drop _merge ccode; . ren cntryer cntryerb; . ren freeindx freeindb; . gen gastdemb=(14-(polright+civlib)); (127235 missing values generated) . drop polright civlib; . la var gastdemb "GASTIL - 14-(polriteb+civlibb) (0 - 12)"; . la var freeindb "GASTIL - for B: 0=NF,1=PF,2=F"; . sort dyadidyr; . *comment: constructing dyadic measures; . gen gasdemlo=gastdema if gastdemagastdema & gastdema~=. & gastdemb~=.; (292792 missing values generated) . replace gasdemhi=gastdema if gastdema>=gastdemb & gastdema~=. & gastdemb~=.; (165303 real changes made) . la var gasdemhi "GASTIL - Higher of dyadic scores"; . gen jtgasdem=(gastdema*gastdemb); (127489 missing values generated) . la var jtgasdem "GASTIL - Product of dyadic scores"; . compress; gastdema was float now byte gastdemb was float now byte gasdemlo was float now byte gasdemhi was float now byte jtgasdem was float now int . drop freeinda gastdema freeindb gastdemb; . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: adding contiguity distance variables; . merge dyadidyr using distance.dta; . tab _merge; _merge | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 2 | 1,082 0.28 0.28 3 | 386,556 99.72 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 387,638 100.00 . drop if _merge==2; (1082 observations deleted) . drop _merge; . *comment: CONSTRUCTING CONTIGUITY, Table 1 & 2; . gen cntigdum=1 if cntig<=4 & cntig~=.; (374837 missing values generated) . replace cntigdum=0 if cntig>4 & cntig~=.; (374837 real changes made) . la var cntigdum "CONTIG - 1 if cntig<=4"; . drop cntig; . sort dyadidyr; . compress; cntigdum was float now byte . *comment: CONSTRUCTING DISTANCE, Table 1 & 2; . gen tempdist=distance; (5206 missing values generated) . replace tempdist=1 if distance==0; (123 real changes made) . gen logdist=ln(tempdist); (5206 missing values generated) . drop tempdist pol_rel; . la var distance "DISTANCE - km's cap to cap"; . la var logdist "DISTANCE - ln(km's) cap to cap"; . *comment: CONSTRUCTING GDPPC X CONTIGUITY INTERACTION TERM, Table 1 & 2; . gen gdpcntig=rgdppclo*cntigdum; (10018 missing values generated) . la var gdpcntig "CONTIG - rgdppclo x cntigdum"; . sort dyadidyr; . compress; gdpcntig was float now int . save capitalistpeace_012007.dta, replace; file capitalistpeace_012007.dta saved . *comment: descriptive stats on the whole dataset; . describe; Contains data from capitalistpeace_012007.dta obs: 386,556 all dyads 1950-92: 12-18-98 vars: 121 29 Jan 2007 18:41 size: 134,908,044 (48.5% of memory free) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- storage display value variable name type format label variable label ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- dyadidyr long %12.0g ID - unique dyad year identifier dyadid long %12.0g ID - unique dyad identifier cntryera long %12.0g ID - country year A cntryerb long %12.0g ID - country year B statea int %4.0f ID - COW code for state A stateb int %4.0f ID - COW code for state B year int %4.0f ID - current year demlo byte %9.0g DEM - Lower of dyadic scores demhi byte %9.0g DEM - Higher of dyadic scores jntdem byte %9.0g DEM - Product of dyadic scores demdumy2 byte %9.0g DEM - dummy both demaut>7 demdumy1 byte %9.0g DEM - dummy either demaut>7 deplo float %9.0g IDEP - Lower of dyadic scores dephi float %9.0g IDEP - Higher of dyadic scores jntdep float %9.0g IDEP - Product of dyadic scores alliesr byte %9.0g O&R - states a&b formally allied=1 contig byte %9.0g DISTANCE - contiguity dummy logdstab float %9.0g O&R - ln of capital to capital distan lncaprt float %9.0g O&R - ln of COW capability ratio majpdyds byte %9.0g CAP - Major power in dyad maoznewl byte %9.0g MID - lead Maoz dyadic onset warl byte %9.0g MID - lead Maoz wars deadlyl byte %9.0g MID - lead Maoz deadly MID sample byte %8.0g MERGE - 1= O&R,2=MAOZ,3=both waryrs byte %8.0g Time since last warl waryear1 float %9.0g (waryrs-k1) cubed waryear2 float %9.0g (waryrs-k2) cubed waryear3 float %9.0g (waryrs-k3) cubed deadyrs byte %8.0g Time since last deadlyl deadyer1 float %9.0g (deadyrs-k1) cubed deadyer2 float %9.0g (deadyrs-k2) cubed deadyer3 float %9.0g (deadyrs-k3) cubed maozyrs byte %8.0g Time since last maoznewl _spline1 float %9.0g (maozyrs-k1) cubed _spline2 float %9.0g (maozyrs-k2) cubed _spline3 float %9.0g (maozyrs-k3) cubed cinclo float %9.0g CINC - Lower of dyadic scores cinchi float %9.0g CINC - Higher of dyadic scores namerica byte %9.0g samerica byte %9.0g europe byte %9.0g africa byte %9.0g nafmeast byte %9.0g asia byte %9.0g pacific byte %9.0g thirdpty byte %9.0g ALLY - initial vs. enemy ally A-C/B-D fourprty byte %9.0g ALLY - ally vs. ally link C-D/D-C rgdppclo int %9.0g PWT - ln of lower GDP scores rgdppchi float %9.0g PWT - ln of higher GDP scores rgdppcl2 float %9.0g PWT - Lower dyadic GDP score^2 rgdpdist float %9.0g PWT - inter, rgdppclo/dist rgdppcln float %9.0g rgdppchn float %9.0g rgdpcln2 float %9.0g PWT - ln of lower GDP score^2 gdpdisln float %9.0g PWT - ln of rgdppclo/dist tradelo float %9.0g TRADE - Lower of dyadic scores tradehi float %9.0g TRADE - Higher of dyadic scores jnttrade float %9.0g TRADE - tradea*tradeb openlo float %9.0g TRADE - Lower of openness demgdplo float %9.0g Mousseau - dev*dem interaction term demgdpln float %9.0g Mousseau - ln(dev)*dem interaction term gdpcontg int %9.0g GDP - wealth discourages conquest gdplnctg float %9.0g GDP - wealth discourages conquest sun2cat float %9.0g AFFINITY - 2 cat UN sun3cat float %9.0g AFFINITY - 3 cat UN sun2cati float %9.0g AFFINITY - interpolated sun3cati float %9.0g AFFINITY - interpolated residsun float %9.0g AFFINITY - sun2cati unexplained by demlo, demhi s_igocount_uw float %9.0g unweighted S score for joint IGO membership portfolios capopenh byte %9.0g IMF - govt financial openness, high capopenl byte %9.0g IMF - govt financial openness, low fdi_gdph float %9.0g IMF - gross fdi over gdp ppp, high fdi_gdpl float %9.0g IMF - gross fdi over gdp ppp, low ceq_gdph float %9.0g IMF - cum. equity invest/gdpppp, high ceq_gdpl float %9.0g IMF - cum. equity invest/gdpppp, low portfh float %9.0g IMF - portfolio invest, % of gdp-ppp, high portfl float %9.0g IMF - portfolio invest, % of gdp-ppp, low capitalh float %9.0g IMF - gross priv cap flows, % of gdp-ppp, high capitall float %9.0g IMF - gross priv cap flows, % of gdp-ppp, low capdumy byte %9.0g IMF - dummy, 1 if capitall>=5 elibdumy byte %9.0g ECONLIB - dummy for sample econfrel float %9.0g ECONLIB - Lower econ lib 5 year iecofrel float %9.0g ECONLIB - ipolate lower econ lib all years capitala float %9.0g QUINN - Quinn capital account openness A capitalb float %9.0g QUINN - Quinn capital account openness B capitalo float %9.0g QUINN - lower of dyadic scores capitlhi float %9.0g QUINN - higher of dyadic scores jtcapitl float %9.0g QUINN - capitala*capitalb icapitlo float %9.0g QUINN - interpolated capitalo kaopena float %9.0g KAOPEN - Chinn Ito capital openness kaopenb float %9.0g KAOPEN - Chinn Ito capital openness kaopenlo float %9.0g KAOPEN - lower of dyadic scores kaopenhi float %9.0g KAOPEN - higher of dyadic scores jtkaopen float %9.0g KAOPEN - kaopena*kaopenb bothnato byte %9.0g NATO dummy bothwarsaw byte %9.0g WARSAW dummy bothboth byte %9.0g NATO & WARSAW dummy nuclear1 byte %9.0g NUKE - either state has nukes nuclear2 byte %9.0g NUKE - both states have nukes politylo float %9.0g POLITY - Lower of dyadic scores polityhi float %9.0g POLITY - Higher of dyadic scores jtpolity float %9.0g POLITY - Product of dyadic scores durabllo byte %9.0g POLITY - Lower of dyadic regime durability scores ceddem1 byte %9.0g CEDERMAN - either democ>=6 ceddem2 byte %9.0g CEDERMAN - both democ>=6 demyear1 int %9.0g CEDERMAN - ceddem1*year demyear2 int %9.0g CEDERMAN - ceddem2*year autyear1 int %9.0g CEDERMAN - (1-ceddem1)*year autyear2 int %9.0g CEDERMAN - (1-ceddem2)*year ida float %9.0g VANDEM - Vanhanen dem A idb float %9.0g VANDEM - Vanhanen dem B idlo float %9.0g VANDEM - Lower of dyadic scores idhi float %9.0g VANDEM - Higher of dyadic scores jntid float %9.0g VANDEM - Product of dyadic scores gasdemlo byte %9.0g GASTIL - Lower of dyadic scores gasdemhi byte %9.0g GASTIL - Higher of dyadic scores jtgasdem int %9.0g GASTIL - Product of dyadic scores distance float %9.0g DISTANCE - km's cap to cap cntigdum byte %9.0g CONTIG - 1 if cntig<=4 logdist float %9.0g DISTANCE - ln(km's) cap to cap gdpcntig int %9.0g CONTIG - rgdppclo x cntigdum ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sorted by: dyadidyr . summarize; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- dyadidyr | 386556 3.03e+08 2.09e+08 2020950 9.88e+08 dyadid | 386556 303032.1 209299.6 2020 987990 cntryera | 386556 3026333 2091979 21950 9871992 cntryerb | 386556 5966081 2061539 201950 9901992 statea | 386556 302.4356 209.1978 2 987 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- stateb | 386556 596.4104 206.1538 20 990 year | 386556 1976.221 10.99428 1950 1992 demlo | 306182 -5.121807 5.64725 -10 10 demhi | 306182 3.213203 7.321431 -10 10 jntdem | 306182 1.758771 60.9741 -100 100 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- demdumy2 | 357920 .0721474 .2587322 0 1 demdumy1 | 329196 .5305988 .4990636 0 1 deplo | 356992 .0003635 .002708 0 .1719316 dephi | 356992 .0032817 .0187494 0 1.823015 jntdep | 356992 .0000219 .0004637 0 .0426433 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- alliesr | 386556 .1203189 .3253345 0 1 contig | 386556 .0367631 .1881799 0 1 logdstab | 382786 8.243676 .7826219 1.871744 9.422935 lncaprt | 385330 2.185363 1.731572 0 12.45231 majpdyds | 386556 .0711411 .2570606 0 1 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- maoznewl | 386556 .0047393 .0686792 0 1 warl | 386556 .0005743 .0239578 0 1 deadlyl | 386556 .0010167 .0318691 0 1 sample | 386556 3 0 3 3 waryrs | 386556 15.48272 10.95843 0 42 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- waryear1 | 386556 -3584.514 4219.677 -16848 0 waryear2 | 386556 -5019.611 6658.25 -27440 0 waryear3 | 386556 -4191.499 6117.875 -26657 0 deadyrs | 386556 15.38632 10.93781 0 42 deadyer1 | 386556 -3549.721 4200.882 -16848 0 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- deadyer2 | 386556 -4966.344 6624.09 -27440 0 deadyer3 | 386556 -4143.992 6082.232 -26657 0 maozyrs | 386556 15.14686 10.90403 0 42 _spline1 | 386556 -3468.242 4157.84 -16848 0 _spline2 | 386556 -4842.528 6545.376 -27440 0 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- _spline3 | 386556 -4033.924 6000.317 -26657 0 cinclo | 386099 .0012403 .0036489 9.37e-06 .1788673 cinchi | 386099 .0132058 .0326967 .0000354 .3062891 namerica | 386556 .0156795 .1242324 0 1 samerica | 386556 .0062164 .078599 0 1 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- europe | 386556 .0444153 .2060162 0 1 africa | 386556 .0668519 .2497656 0 1 nafmeast | 386556 .0168384 .128666 0 1 asia | 386556 .0256832 .1581887 0 1 pacific | 386556 .0010037 .0316659 0 1 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- thirdpty | 386556 .1574002 .3641782 0 1 fourprty | 386556 .0565972 .2310717 0 1 rgdppclo | 376538 1760.643 1958.456 221 31969 rgdppchi | 376538 5771.533 5064.802 228 33946 rgdppcl2 | 376538 6935403 2.09e+07 48841 1.02e+09 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- rgdpdist | 372840 219.0749 261.7787 24.28802 6127.489 rgdppcln | 376538 7.096674 .8119377 5.398163 10.37252 rgdppchn | 376538 8.288104 .9024202 5.429346 10.43253 rgdpcln2 | 376538 51.02202 11.95575 29.14016 107.5892 gdpdisln | 372840 .8708714 .1541764 .5787458 3.494618 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- tradelo | 376538 .0004111 .00244 -1.74e-06 .2143973 tradehi | 376538 .004554 .0300137 -2.01e-07 3.488247 jnttrade | 376538 .0000226 .0005474 0 .1261679 openlo | 376538 .175105 .1637382 0 4.144051 demgdplo | 301824 -4659.452 22551.82 -200180 175240 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- demgdpln | 301824 -34.33126 42.65635 -99.04387 97.71326 gdpcontg | 376538 97.88176 769.4142 0 31969 gdplnctg | 376538 .270206 1.399355 0 10.37252 sun2cat | 332593 .7449208 .35802 -1 1 sun3cat | 333575 .6071661 .3134803 -1 1 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- sun2cati | 343209 .7390797 .363546 -1 1 sun3cati | 343550 .6018556 .317913 -1 1 residsun | 269234 -5.51e-10 .3642257 -1.864451 .4195029 s_igocount~w | 386401 .7844738 .1130097 .2117172 .9853692 capopenh | 240600 5.337851 1.830518 0 8 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- capopenl | 240600 3.005964 1.627334 0 8 fdi_gdph | 107703 2.184159 2.687646 0 21.94661 fdi_gdpl | 107703 .4112036 .7566671 0 17.38827 ceq_gdph | 135958 .0205995 .1178463 0 1.607674 ceq_gdpl | 135958 .0003922 .0118162 0 1.048658 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- portfh | 107703 11.53776 36.84746 0 632.7358 portfl | 107703 1.991322 2.638628 0 149.9782 capitalh | 108309 13.53817 37.05496 .0454133 633.8746 capitall | 108309 2.693165 3.316286 .0021917 152.5665 capdumy | 386556 .0410445 .1983934 0 1 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- elibdumy | 386556 .2581696 .4376283 0 1 econfrel | 22408 4.528639 1.296381 1.264785 9.137212 iecofrel | 99797 4.590815 1.268847 1.264785 9.137212 capitala | 91572 63.19221 26.97574 0 100 capitalb | 61074 51.8846 24.81231 0 100 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- capitalo | 22123 39.25101 22.2826 0 100 capitlhi | 22123 67.75132 23.76354 0 100 jtcapitl | 22123 2939.63 2304.64 0 10000 icapitlo | 94352 35.3176 19.49778 0 100 kaopena | 135691 -.2668773 1.368401 -1.792686 2.656628 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- kaopenb | 125074 -.186496 1.447048 -1.792686 2.656628 kaopenlo | 81866 -.9768367 .8468477 -1.792686 2.656628 kaopenhi | 81866 .5159293 1.458142 -1.792686 2.656628 jtkaopen | 81866 .0400005 2.026026 -4.7625 7.057672 bothnato | 386556 .0108264 .1034852 0 1 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- bothwarsaw | 386556 .0016531 .0406243 0 1 bothboth | 386556 .0124794 .1110123 0 1 nuclear1 | 386556 .0855115 .2796418 0 1 nuclear2 | 386556 .0012262 .0349959 0 1 politylo | 311914 2.426856 2.792056 0 10 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- polityhi | 311914 6.566222 3.644913 0 10 jtpolity | 311914 20.42596 28.75319 0 100 durabllo | 318380 10.12149 12.31028 0 92 ceddem1 | 386556 .6553281 .4752618 0 1 ceddem2 | 386556 .1777776 .3823259 0 1 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- demyear1 | 386556 1295.55 939.6127 0 1992 demyear2 | 386556 351.7597 756.5053 0 1992 autyear1 | 386556 680.6709 938.5838 0 1992 autyear2 | 386556 1624.461 755.4226 0 1992 ida | 383235 11.08278 12.94046 0 67.8 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- idb | 382043 7.452251 11.4147 0 67.8 idlo | 378757 3.05592 6.735821 0 57.9 idhi | 378757 15.48343 13.48364 0 67.8 jntid | 378757 87.98485 225.0815 0 3468.21 gasdemlo | 259067 3.200882 3.09457 0 12 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- gasdemhi | 259067 7.866598 3.686281 0 12 jtgasdem | 259067 30.74912 36.57963 0 144 distance | 381350 7848.925 4471.738 0 30324.24 cntigdum | 386556 .0303164 .1714568 0 1 logdist | 381350 8.739379 .791926 0 10.3197 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- gdpcntig | 376538 78.19373 691.0059 0 31969 . corr demlo demhi deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig logdstab majp > dyds allies lncaprt; (obs=166140) | demlo demhi deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg -------------+--------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | 1.0000 demhi | 0.4431 1.0000 deplo | 0.1573 0.0729 1.0000 sun2cati | -0.1055 -0.2926 0.0019 1.0000 capopenl | 0.1502 0.1556 0.1512 -0.0491 1.0000 rgdppclo | 0.4311 0.3059 0.3270 -0.1015 0.3244 1.0000 gdpcontg | 0.1448 0.0400 0.5190 -0.0023 0.1022 0.2905 1.0000 contig | 0.0466 -0.0399 0.2705 0.0030 0.0164 0.1029 0.6641 logdstab | 0.0286 0.1553 -0.2592 -0.0399 0.0353 -0.0863 -0.3095 majpdyds | 0.1372 0.1604 0.0978 -0.3845 0.1005 0.1748 0.1393 alliesr | -0.0301 -0.2449 0.0780 0.1648 -0.0211 -0.0117 0.1413 lncaprt | 0.0972 0.1337 -0.0804 -0.1683 0.0170 0.0108 -0.0246 | contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr lncaprt -------------+--------------------------------------------- contig | 1.0000 logdstab | -0.4470 1.0000 majpdyds | 0.0942 -0.0121 1.0000 alliesr | 0.2166 -0.4857 0.0079 1.0000 lncaprt | -0.0276 0.0891 0.2874 -0.0798 1.0000 . corr politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig logds > tab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt; (obs=179420) | politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg -------------+--------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | 1.0000 polityhi | 0.4381 1.0000 tradelo | 0.1552 0.0752 1.0000 sun2cati | -0.1039 -0.3060 0.0033 1.0000 capopenl | 0.1261 0.1467 0.1508 -0.0529 1.0000 rgdppclo | 0.3820 0.2948 0.3238 -0.1071 0.3466 1.0000 gdpcontg | 0.1250 0.0221 0.4792 0.0048 0.1072 0.2996 1.0000 contig | 0.0405 -0.0515 0.2673 0.0107 0.0143 0.0981 0.6416 logdstab | 0.0361 0.1667 -0.2656 -0.0491 0.0312 -0.0884 -0.3089 majpdyds | 0.1308 0.1609 0.0880 -0.3963 0.0982 0.1659 0.1201 alliesr | -0.0336 -0.2627 0.0822 0.1715 -0.0294 -0.0219 0.1347 thirdpty | 0.0602 0.0830 0.0642 -0.0579 -0.0405 0.1931 0.0743 fourprty | 0.0012 -0.0023 0.0440 -0.0754 -0.0461 0.1044 0.0849 cinclo | 0.1562 0.1236 0.2081 -0.1421 -0.0406 0.1970 0.1479 lncaprt | 0.0856 0.1276 -0.0872 -0.1777 0.0214 0.0120 -0.0272 | contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo -------------+--------------------------------------------------------------- contig | 1.0000 logdstab | -0.4506 1.0000 majpdyds | 0.0866 -0.0036 1.0000 alliesr | 0.2190 -0.4809 -0.0017 1.0000 thirdpty | 0.0551 -0.0259 0.0642 0.0660 1.0000 fourprty | 0.1033 -0.1655 0.1066 0.1435 -0.1080 1.0000 cinclo | 0.0958 -0.0206 0.2364 -0.0181 0.0943 0.1016 1.0000 lncaprt | -0.0278 0.0911 0.2954 -0.0842 -0.0692 -0.0263 -0.2082 | lncaprt -------------+--------- lncaprt | 1.0000 . *_______________________ RESULTS __________________________; . *comment: TABLE 1; . *Table 1, Model 1: replication of Oneal and Russett standard model; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr lncaprt namer > ica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -8830.8566 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -7489.6135 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -5571.4911 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -5194.8033 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -5125.7356 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -5121.0426 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -5120.9988 Logit estimates Number of obs = 282287 Wald chi2(17) = 1868.46 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -5120.9988 Pseudo R2 = 0.4201 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.064083 .0138524 -4.63 0.000 -.0912332 -.0369327 demhi | .0355572 .0100476 3.54 0.000 .0158642 .0552502 deplo | -37.83426 15.87434 -2.38 0.017 -68.94739 -6.721117 contig | 2.002833 .2111868 9.48 0.000 1.588915 2.416752 logdstab | -.6107716 .0834681 -7.32 0.000 -.7743661 -.4471772 majpdyds | 2.515228 .256669 9.80 0.000 2.012166 3.01829 alliesr | -.4298568 .2029635 -2.12 0.034 -.827658 -.0320556 lncaprt | -.3040321 .0547958 -5.55 0.000 -.4114298 -.1966344 namerica | .1424504 .3378561 0.42 0.673 -.5197354 .8046361 samerica | 1.319061 .4394916 3.00 0.003 .4576735 2.180449 europe | -.9230515 .2948104 -3.13 0.002 -1.500869 -.3452338 africa | .4437249 .3202103 1.39 0.166 -.1838757 1.071325 nafmeast | 1.329593 .2667745 4.98 0.000 .8067242 1.852461 asia | 1.317226 .2462235 5.35 0.000 .8346371 1.799815 _spline1 | .0050789 .000478 10.63 0.000 .0041421 .0060158 _spline2 | -.0049269 .000568 -8.67 0.000 -.0060402 -.0038136 _spline3 | .0019854 .0003099 6.41 0.000 .0013781 .0025928 _cons | -.4676661 .7075987 -0.66 0.509 -1.854534 .9192019 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *Table 1, Model 2: adding Fin.Open(Low); . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl contig logdstab majpdyds allies lncap > rt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3866.2247 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2662.1586 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2274.4224 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2181.6338 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2170.5742 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2170.2699 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2170.2696 Logit estimates Number of obs = 174548 Wald chi2(18) = 1717.58 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2170.2696 Pseudo R2 = 0.4387 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0103302 .0137399 -0.75 0.452 -.0372599 .0165995 demhi | .0076733 .0121515 0.63 0.528 -.0161433 .0314898 deplo | -16.91773 10.0734 -1.68 0.093 -36.66124 2.825775 capopenl | -.1876758 .0528593 -3.55 0.000 -.2912781 -.0840736 contig | 2.759508 .3022431 9.13 0.000 2.167122 3.351893 logdstab | -.4741632 .0971999 -4.88 0.000 -.6646715 -.283655 majpdyds | 2.030091 .3737902 5.43 0.000 1.297475 2.762706 alliesr | -.2380895 .2403615 -0.99 0.322 -.7091894 .2330103 lncaprt | -.1286325 .0597605 -2.15 0.031 -.245761 -.0115041 namerica | .702069 .4746279 1.48 0.139 -.2281845 1.632323 samerica | .8872407 .4023514 2.21 0.027 .0986466 1.675835 europe | -.9167208 .5069616 -1.81 0.071 -1.910347 .0769056 africa | .1725733 .3626146 0.48 0.634 -.5381383 .8832849 nafmeast | 1.008627 .3140281 3.21 0.001 .3931429 1.624111 asia | .7063799 .360866 1.96 0.050 -.0009045 1.413664 _spline1 | .0044839 .0006103 7.35 0.000 .0032877 .00568 _spline2 | -.0041404 .0006945 -5.96 0.000 -.0055016 -.0027791 _spline3 | .0015322 .0003537 4.33 0.000 .000839 .0022254 _cons | -1.135784 .8398733 -1.35 0.176 -2.781905 .5103379 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *Table 1, Model 3: adding GDPPC(Low); . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo contig logdstab majpdyds all > ies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dya > did); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3844.7016 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2633.6847 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2249.1361 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2157.9441 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2146.8762 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2146.5645 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2146.5641 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171509 Wald chi2(19) = 1719.86 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2146.5641 Pseudo R2 = 0.4417 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.015174 .0139671 -1.09 0.277 -.0425489 .012201 demhi | .00736 .011995 0.61 0.539 -.0161496 .0308697 deplo | -24.33123 14.04473 -1.73 0.083 -51.8584 3.195944 capopenl | -.2115813 .0604193 -3.50 0.000 -.3300009 -.0931617 rgdppclo | .0000688 .0000371 1.85 0.064 -3.92e-06 .0001415 contig | 2.758124 .3059651 9.01 0.000 2.158443 3.357805 logdstab | -.4642648 .0966976 -4.80 0.000 -.6537886 -.274741 majpdyds | 1.948112 .3680399 5.29 0.000 1.226767 2.669457 alliesr | -.2341821 .2356399 -0.99 0.320 -.6960279 .2276637 lncaprt | -.1272629 .0596413 -2.13 0.033 -.2441578 -.0103681 namerica | .7250023 .4748017 1.53 0.127 -.2055919 1.655596 samerica | .8315336 .4009041 2.07 0.038 .045776 1.617291 europe | -.9871318 .5044451 -1.96 0.050 -1.975826 .0015625 africa | .2841188 .3632596 0.78 0.434 -.4278569 .9960944 nafmeast | .8818392 .3198303 2.76 0.006 .2549833 1.508695 asia | .7719632 .3576881 2.16 0.031 .0709074 1.473019 _spline1 | .0043965 .0006038 7.28 0.000 .003213 .00558 _spline2 | -.004033 .0006879 -5.86 0.000 -.0053812 -.0026848 _spline3 | .0014788 .0003515 4.21 0.000 .00079 .0021677 _cons | -1.287971 .8301664 -1.55 0.121 -2.915068 .3391248 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *Table 1, Model 4: adding GDPPC x Contig.; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig logdstab maj > pdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cl > uster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3844.7016 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2617.9121 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2229.1599 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2134.2552 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2121.6007 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2121.191 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2121.1904 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171509 Wald chi2(20) = 1698.78 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2121.1904 Pseudo R2 = 0.4483 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0106982 .0128008 -0.84 0.403 -.0357874 .014391 demhi | .0079644 .0122357 0.65 0.515 -.0160172 .0319459 deplo | -5.206258 8.472934 -0.61 0.539 -21.8129 11.40039 capopenl | -.21431 .0588146 -3.64 0.000 -.3295846 -.0990355 rgdppclo | .0002237 .0000387 5.78 0.000 .0001478 .0002995 gdpcontg | -.0002853 .0000491 -5.81 0.000 -.0003816 -.000189 contig | 3.428528 .306316 11.19 0.000 2.828159 4.028896 logdstab | -.4327168 .0928004 -4.66 0.000 -.6146023 -.2508313 majpdyds | 1.973367 .3556581 5.55 0.000 1.27629 2.670444 alliesr | -.2171982 .2317824 -0.94 0.349 -.6714834 .237087 lncaprt | -.1294715 .0577738 -2.24 0.025 -.242706 -.016237 namerica | .7516684 .4771371 1.58 0.115 -.1835032 1.68684 samerica | .8811208 .3937111 2.24 0.025 .1094613 1.65278 europe | -.8978271 .4634935 -1.94 0.053 -1.806258 .0106035 africa | .1780304 .364379 0.49 0.625 -.5361393 .8922002 nafmeast | .9784537 .3087728 3.17 0.002 .3732702 1.583637 asia | .6313896 .3644309 1.73 0.083 -.0828818 1.345661 _spline1 | .0044075 .0006012 7.33 0.000 .0032292 .0055858 _spline2 | -.0040564 .0006868 -5.91 0.000 -.0054024 -.0027103 _spline3 | .0015033 .0003518 4.27 0.000 .0008138 .0021929 _cons | -1.860572 .8088776 -2.30 0.021 -3.445943 -.2752015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *Table 1, Model 5: adding Interests; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg sun2cati contig log > dstab majpdyds allies lncaprt _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2631.0992 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2214.9975 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2095.2016 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2078.7179 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2078.0599 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2078.0583 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -2078.0583 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(15) = 1607.35 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2078.0583 Pseudo R2 = 0.4487 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.017071 .0118821 -1.44 0.151 -.0403595 .0062175 demhi | -.0021662 .0125426 -0.17 0.863 -.0267492 .0224168 deplo | -5.4023 9.035829 -0.60 0.550 -23.1122 12.3076 capopenl | -.2468004 .0581342 -4.25 0.000 -.3607414 -.1328594 rgdppclo | .0002481 .0000325 7.63 0.000 .0001843 .0003118 gdpcontg | -.0002776 .0000492 -5.64 0.000 -.0003741 -.0001811 sun2cati | -.9823773 .2004776 -4.90 0.000 -1.375306 -.5894485 contig | 3.740427 .2733584 13.68 0.000 3.204655 4.2762 logdstab | -.4164068 .0852833 -4.88 0.000 -.583559 -.2492547 majpdyds | 1.403501 .2733438 5.13 0.000 .8677573 1.939245 alliesr | -.0072743 .2334317 -0.03 0.975 -.464792 .4502435 lncaprt | -.150566 .0554963 -2.71 0.007 -.2593367 -.0417953 _spline1 | .0047446 .00059 8.04 0.000 .0035883 .005901 _spline2 | -.0043918 .0006835 -6.43 0.000 -.0057313 -.0030522 _spline3 | .0016421 .0003553 4.62 0.000 .0009457 .0023384 _cons | -1.087785 .7615027 -1.43 0.153 -2.580303 .404733 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *comment: Figure 1; . *comment: TABLE 2; . *Table 2, Model 6: replication of Model 1 for wars; . logit warl demlo demhi deplo contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr lncaprt namerica > samerica europe africa nafmeast asia waryear*, cluster(dyadid); note: samerica != 0 predicts failure perfectly samerica dropped and 2092 obs not used Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1421.8039 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -1158.8218 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -987.48442 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -916.01318 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -894.44986 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -891.06523 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -890.86237 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -890.85915 Iteration 8: log pseudolikelihood = -890.85914 Logit estimates Number of obs = 280195 Wald chi2(16) = 519.42 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -890.85914 Pseudo R2 = 0.3734 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust warl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.1260444 .0284219 -4.43 0.000 -.1817504 -.0703385 demhi | .0232332 .0241284 0.96 0.336 -.0240576 .070524 deplo | -213.2004 334.1007 -0.64 0.523 -868.0258 441.6249 contig | .4951474 .4462807 1.11 0.267 -.3795467 1.369841 logdstab | -.6505334 .1327416 -4.90 0.000 -.9107021 -.3903646 majpdyds | 3.980568 .479259 8.31 0.000 3.041237 4.919898 alliesr | -1.2019 .4551198 -2.64 0.008 -2.093919 -.3098819 lncaprt | -.8649718 .1229895 -7.03 0.000 -1.106027 -.6239168 namerica | -.4935926 .9559031 -0.52 0.606 -2.367128 1.379943 europe | -2.554542 1.114035 -2.29 0.022 -4.738011 -.3710737 africa | -.4738773 .6722327 -0.70 0.481 -1.791429 .8436745 nafmeast | 1.784424 .4950067 3.60 0.000 .8142292 2.75462 asia | 1.80444 .4528823 3.98 0.000 .916807 2.692073 waryear1 | .0079891 .0014793 5.40 0.000 .0050898 .0108885 waryear2 | -.0076621 .0017405 -4.40 0.000 -.0110733 -.0042508 waryear3 | .0030154 .0009585 3.15 0.002 .0011369 .004894 _cons | -1.074526 1.087591 -0.99 0.323 -3.206166 1.057113 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 902 failures and 0 successes completely determined. . *Table 2, Model 7: adding Fin.Open.(Low), GDPPC(Low) and GDPPC x Contig.; . logit warl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig logdstab majpdyd > s allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia waryear*, cluste > r(dyadid); note: samerica != 0 predicts failure perfectly samerica dropped and 1434 obs not used note: europe != 0 predicts failure perfectly europe dropped and 4881 obs not used Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -381.34837 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -259.22011 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -208.87217 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -188.18579 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -181.85943 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -180.7777 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -180.72566 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -180.72548 Logit estimates Number of obs = 165194 Wald chi2(18) = 312.07 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -180.72548 Pseudo R2 = 0.5261 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust warl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0369207 .0660957 0.56 0.576 -.0926245 .166466 demhi | -.0078571 .0510839 -0.15 0.878 -.1079796 .0922654 deplo | -48.75675 125.1016 -0.39 0.697 -293.9513 196.4378 capopenl | -.4642266 .1605818 -2.89 0.004 -.7789612 -.149492 rgdppclo | .0002663 .0000713 3.73 0.000 .0001265 .0004061 gdpcontg | -.0004188 .0001918 -2.18 0.029 -.0007948 -.0000428 contig | 4.655373 .7190994 6.47 0.000 3.245964 6.064782 logdstab | -.2937007 .1913222 -1.54 0.125 -.6686853 .0812839 majpdyds | 1.550236 1.257079 1.23 0.217 -.9135938 4.014067 alliesr | -1.052513 .6435958 -1.64 0.102 -2.313937 .2089121 lncaprt | -.6950039 .2290588 -3.03 0.002 -1.143951 -.2460569 namerica | 1.087461 .9509818 1.14 0.253 -.7764289 2.951351 africa | .6289773 .9516054 0.66 0.509 -1.236135 2.49409 nafmeast | 2.364471 .633786 3.73 0.000 1.122273 3.606668 asia | -.234232 .8431559 -0.28 0.781 -1.886787 1.418323 waryear1 | .0034264 .0015949 2.15 0.032 .0003005 .0065523 waryear2 | -.0028122 .0018266 -1.54 0.124 -.0063923 .0007678 waryear3 | .0008086 .0009465 0.85 0.393 -.0010464 .0026637 _cons | -4.760347 1.777263 -2.68 0.007 -8.243719 -1.276975 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *Table 2, Model 8: replication of Model 1 for fatal MIDS; . logit deadlyl demlo demhi deplo contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr lncaprt nameri > ca samerica europe africa nafmeast asia deadyer*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -2381.2664 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -1841.6852 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -1676.765 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -1612.0452 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -1606.9581 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -1606.8486 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -1606.8485 Logit estimates Number of obs = 282287 Wald chi2(17) = 1796.80 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -1606.8485 Pseudo R2 = 0.3252 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust deadlyl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0468845 .027844 -1.68 0.092 -.1014576 .0076887 demhi | .0337434 .0155469 2.17 0.030 .003272 .0642147 deplo | -165.601 76.73776 -2.16 0.031 -316.0042 -15.19775 contig | 2.28265 .3132167 7.29 0.000 1.668756 2.896543 logdstab | -.5897679 .095462 -6.18 0.000 -.77687 -.4026659 majpdyds | 2.180638 .4276859 5.10 0.000 1.342389 3.018887 alliesr | -.2428628 .3016112 -0.81 0.421 -.8340098 .3482842 lncaprt | -.342263 .0657644 -5.20 0.000 -.4711588 -.2133672 namerica | -.171935 .4573022 -0.38 0.707 -1.068231 .7243608 samerica | .7952062 .7130699 1.12 0.265 -.6023852 2.192798 europe | -.904665 .4306193 -2.10 0.036 -1.748663 -.0606668 africa | .4002166 .3953294 1.01 0.311 -.3746147 1.175048 nafmeast | 1.448097 .3171566 4.57 0.000 .8264813 2.069712 asia | 1.247878 .3753424 3.32 0.001 .5122202 1.983536 deadyer1 | .0014235 .0006017 2.37 0.018 .0002442 .0026028 deadyer2 | -.0008815 .0007158 -1.23 0.218 -.0022843 .0005214 deadyer3 | .0000595 .000394 0.15 0.880 -.0007128 .0008317 _cons | -2.384337 .8106232 -2.94 0.003 -3.97313 -.7955451 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 84 failures and 0 successes completely determined. . *Table 2, Model 9: adding Fin.Open.(Low), GDPPC(Low) and GDPPC x Contig.; . logit deadlyl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig logdstab majp > dyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia deadyer*, clu > ster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1049.5984 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -772.53407 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -705.32325 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -690.99832 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -689.60793 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -689.58638 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -689.58637 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171509 Wald chi2(20) = 1170.63 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -689.58637 Pseudo R2 = 0.3430 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust deadlyl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0271042 .0277339 -0.98 0.328 -.0814618 .0272533 demhi | .0281801 .0226366 1.24 0.213 -.0161868 .0725471 deplo | -85.25077 65.48827 -1.30 0.193 -213.6054 43.10389 capopenl | -.164747 .0750805 -2.19 0.028 -.3119021 -.0175918 rgdppclo | .0001817 .0000482 3.77 0.000 .0000873 .0002761 gdpcontg | -.00023 .0000843 -2.73 0.006 -.0003952 -.0000649 contig | 3.358525 .3884049 8.65 0.000 2.597265 4.119784 logdstab | -.4190784 .1184741 -3.54 0.000 -.6512834 -.1868734 majpdyds | 1.417607 .4745283 2.99 0.003 .4875489 2.347665 alliesr | .157341 .4469746 0.35 0.725 -.7187131 1.033395 lncaprt | -.1789726 .0850429 -2.10 0.035 -.3456536 -.0122917 namerica | .6320821 .5606694 1.13 0.260 -.4668096 1.730974 samerica | .2432073 1.015588 0.24 0.811 -1.747308 2.233723 europe | -1.385948 1.070748 -1.29 0.196 -3.484574 .7126791 africa | .5325241 .5282955 1.01 0.313 -.5029161 1.567964 nafmeast | 1.550098 .3849073 4.03 0.000 .7956935 2.304502 asia | 1.531672 .5046045 3.04 0.002 .5426653 2.520679 deadyer1 | .0012959 .0008973 1.44 0.149 -.0004629 .0030546 deadyer2 | -.0006494 .0010189 -0.64 0.524 -.0026463 .0013476 deadyer3 | -.000113 .0005216 -0.22 0.828 -.0011353 .0009092 _cons | -4.231955 1.013003 -4.18 0.000 -6.217405 -2.246506 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 14 failures and 0 successes completely determined. . *Appendix - Table 3; . *comment: different measures of democracy; . *Polity IV; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg co > ntig distance majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt _spline*, clust > er(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -4385.0123 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -3157.718 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2673.2909 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2499.9506 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2471.4861 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2469.125 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2469.0991 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -2469.0991 Logit estimates Number of obs = 179091 Wald chi2(18) = 1968.02 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2469.0991 Pseudo R2 = 0.4369 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0231446 .0244637 -0.95 0.344 -.0710925 .0248033 polityhi | -.0005504 .0220432 -0.02 0.980 -.0437542 .0426534 tradelo | 2.663595 6.726213 0.40 0.692 -10.51954 15.84673 sun2cati | -1.02562 .1673219 -6.13 0.000 -1.353565 -.6976753 capopenl | -.1450912 .0446339 -3.25 0.001 -.2325721 -.0576104 rgdppclo | .0001295 .0000273 4.75 0.000 .000076 .0001829 gdpcontg | -.0002689 .0000449 -5.99 0.000 -.0003569 -.0001809 contig | 3.270745 .211527 15.46 0.000 2.856159 3.68533 distance | -.0002101 .0000386 -5.44 0.000 -.0002858 -.0001344 majpdyds | 1.296125 .2451424 5.29 0.000 .8156551 1.776596 alliesr | -.1479463 .1774675 -0.83 0.404 -.4957762 .1998835 thirdpty | .4744496 .1523182 3.11 0.002 .1759115 .7729877 fourprty | 1.137064 .141312 8.05 0.000 .8600978 1.414031 cinclo | 9.920201 8.814032 1.13 0.260 -7.354984 27.19539 lncaprt | -.1345578 .0523115 -2.57 0.010 -.2370864 -.0320291 _spline1 | .0043038 .0005125 8.40 0.000 .0032993 .0053084 _spline2 | -.0036914 .0005916 -6.24 0.000 -.0048508 -.0025319 _spline3 | .0011546 .0003054 3.78 0.000 .0005561 .0017532 _cons | -3.174801 .2901881 -10.94 0.000 -3.743559 -2.606043 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *Polity IV: adding capitall; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati capitall rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt _spline*, clust > er(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1523.0204 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -950.52297 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -803.72654 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -761.5826 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -752.89697 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -752.13737 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -752.12684 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -752.12684 Logit estimates Number of obs = 78007 Wald chi2(18) = 1133.45 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -752.12684 Pseudo R2 = 0.5062 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0559215 .0352675 -1.59 0.113 -.1250446 .0132015 polityhi | .0074477 .0409315 0.18 0.856 -.0727766 .087672 tradelo | -5.301121 35.43489 -0.15 0.881 -74.75222 64.14998 sun2cati | -.9848341 .2508148 -3.93 0.000 -1.476422 -.4932461 capitall | -.2033827 .0659059 -3.09 0.002 -.3325559 -.0742096 rgdppcln | 1.08046 .2185247 4.94 0.000 .6521596 1.508761 gdplnctg | -1.062199 .2604527 -4.08 0.000 -1.572677 -.5517211 contig | 10.61164 2.090332 5.08 0.000 6.51466 14.70861 logdstab | -.3620679 .134628 -2.69 0.007 -.6259339 -.0982019 majpdyds | .7840276 .3593746 2.18 0.029 .0796663 1.488389 alliesr | .3087949 .284749 1.08 0.278 -.2493029 .8668927 thirdpty | .5429463 .2398717 2.26 0.024 .0728064 1.013086 fourprty | .8504847 .2206868 3.85 0.000 .4179466 1.283023 cinclo | 15.19939 8.97966 1.69 0.091 -2.400421 32.7992 lncaprt | .0290997 .0786703 0.37 0.711 -.1250912 .1832906 _spline1 | .0053028 .0008858 5.99 0.000 .0035667 .0070389 _spline2 | -.0048159 .0010091 -4.77 0.000 -.0067936 -.0028382 _spline3 | .0017474 .0005071 3.45 0.001 .0007536 .0027413 _cons | -9.191209 2.105694 -4.36 0.000 -13.31829 -5.064124 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 1 failure and 0 successes completely determined. . *Polity IV: adding fdi_gdpl; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati fdi_gdpl rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt _spline*, clust > er(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1523.0204 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -951.08605 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -804.99169 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -762.0718 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -752.57899 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -751.69814 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -751.68541 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -751.6854 Logit estimates Number of obs = 78007 Wald chi2(18) = 1122.93 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -751.6854 Pseudo R2 = 0.5065 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0310687 .0352359 -0.88 0.378 -.1001299 .0379924 polityhi | .007294 .0398537 0.18 0.855 -.0708178 .0854058 tradelo | 6.869458 32.11797 0.21 0.831 -56.08061 69.81953 sun2cati | -.9514643 .2575938 -3.69 0.000 -1.456339 -.4465897 fdi_gdpl | -1.126686 .3964769 -2.84 0.004 -1.903766 -.3496055 rgdppcln | .9530759 .2018075 4.72 0.000 .5575405 1.348611 gdplnctg | -1.039348 .2546314 -4.08 0.000 -1.538416 -.5402797 contig | 10.48023 2.026449 5.17 0.000 6.508465 14.452 logdstab | -.3533998 .130109 -2.72 0.007 -.6084088 -.0983907 majpdyds | .9046907 .3625301 2.50 0.013 .1941448 1.615237 alliesr | .3429459 .2968627 1.16 0.248 -.2388944 .9247862 thirdpty | .5112865 .2388264 2.14 0.032 .0431953 .9793777 fourprty | .8108608 .2245542 3.61 0.000 .3707427 1.250979 cinclo | 18.21655 9.27036 1.97 0.049 .0469747 36.38612 lncaprt | .0550725 .0795422 0.69 0.489 -.1008274 .2109723 _spline1 | .0052876 .000899 5.88 0.000 .0035257 .0070496 _spline2 | -.0047883 .0010265 -4.66 0.000 -.0068001 -.0027765 _spline3 | .0017273 .0005165 3.34 0.001 .000715 .0027396 _cons | -8.679971 2.041208 -4.25 0.000 -12.68067 -4.679276 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 14 failures and 0 successes completely determined. . *Polity IV: adding portfl; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati portfl rgdppcln gdplnctg cont > ig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt _spline*, cluster > (dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1523.0204 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -951.31627 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -807.0399 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -767.11331 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -759.27698 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -758.62933 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -758.62148 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -758.62148 Logit estimates Number of obs = 78007 Wald chi2(18) = 1158.04 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -758.62148 Pseudo R2 = 0.5019 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0524983 .0356019 -1.47 0.140 -.1222768 .0172802 polityhi | .0078128 .0414547 0.19 0.851 -.0734369 .0890625 tradelo | -11.87426 34.67045 -0.34 0.732 -79.8271 56.07858 sun2cati | -.9723761 .2589888 -3.75 0.000 -1.479985 -.4647674 portfl | -.1502979 .0651391 -2.31 0.021 -.2779683 -.0226276 rgdppcln | .9285612 .2070273 4.49 0.000 .5227951 1.334327 gdplnctg | -1.021812 .2500836 -4.09 0.000 -1.511966 -.5316568 contig | 10.32162 2.019379 5.11 0.000 6.363708 14.27953 logdstab | -.3550312 .1400972 -2.53 0.011 -.6296167 -.0804458 majpdyds | .7651725 .364725 2.10 0.036 .0503247 1.48002 alliesr | .2707294 .2905996 0.93 0.352 -.2988352 .8402941 thirdpty | .6138213 .2352904 2.61 0.009 .1526606 1.074982 fourprty | .9192586 .2184873 4.21 0.000 .4910313 1.347486 cinclo | 16.96713 8.971804 1.89 0.059 -.61728 34.55155 lncaprt | .0224716 .079724 0.28 0.778 -.1337845 .1787278 _spline1 | .0054153 .0009006 6.01 0.000 .0036501 .0071805 _spline2 | -.0049409 .0010231 -4.83 0.000 -.0069463 -.0029356 _spline3 | .0018059 .0005119 3.53 0.000 .0008027 .0028091 _cons | -8.281876 2.07891 -3.98 0.000 -12.35646 -4.207288 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *Polity IV: adding openlo and mousseau; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi demgdpln tradelo openlo sun2cati capopenl rgdp > pcln gdplnctg contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt > _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -4308.3258 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -3087.2998 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2605.5981 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2426.0741 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2403.8545 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2402.6512 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2402.6451 Logit estimates Number of obs = 172067 Wald chi2(20) = 2010.95 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2402.6451 Pseudo R2 = 0.4423 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.1508343 .1430252 -1.05 0.292 -.4311585 .1294899 polityhi | -.0097397 .0241019 -0.40 0.686 -.0569786 .0374992 demgdpln | .0060096 .0083315 0.72 0.471 -.0103199 .0223391 tradelo | -1.54902 8.031472 -0.19 0.847 -17.29042 14.19237 openlo | -.7932006 .6075522 -1.31 0.192 -1.983981 .3975798 sun2cati | -.9003903 .1706999 -5.27 0.000 -1.234956 -.5658246 capopenl | -.1616109 .0429181 -3.77 0.000 -.2457288 -.0774929 rgdppcln | .9321211 .1264625 7.37 0.000 .6842591 1.179983 gdplnctg | -1.100952 .1384212 -7.95 0.000 -1.372253 -.8296514 contig | 10.8854 1.082954 10.05 0.000 8.762853 13.00796 logdstab | -.4149443 .0806477 -5.15 0.000 -.5730108 -.2568777 majpdyds | 1.093388 .2354836 4.64 0.000 .6318487 1.554928 alliesr | -.1332385 .1982974 -0.67 0.502 -.5218943 .2554173 thirdpty | .4605537 .1437715 3.20 0.001 .1787667 .7423406 fourprty | 1.103195 .1342464 8.22 0.000 .8400768 1.366313 cinclo | 8.069428 7.797717 1.03 0.301 -7.213817 23.35267 lncaprt | -.1098197 .0514159 -2.14 0.033 -.210593 -.0090464 _spline1 | .0041928 .0005131 8.17 0.000 .0031871 .0051986 _spline2 | -.003562 .0005972 -5.96 0.000 -.0047326 -.0023915 _spline3 | .0010981 .0003096 3.55 0.000 .0004912 .001705 _cons | -6.913113 1.140842 -6.06 0.000 -9.149121 -4.677104 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *demdummy; . logit maoznewl demdumy2 deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppcln gdplnctg contig logdst > ab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europe a > frica nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -4035.2328 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2699.1589 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2266.0228 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2149.3179 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2128.4704 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2127.1572 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2127.148 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -2127.148 Logit estimates Number of obs = 195189 Wald chi2(23) = 1894.03 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2127.148 Pseudo R2 = 0.4729 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demdumy2 | -.1272544 .2218407 -0.57 0.566 -.5620543 .3075454 deplo | -5.205534 7.752276 -0.67 0.502 -20.39972 9.988647 sun2cati | -1.094938 .1903649 -5.75 0.000 -1.468046 -.7218295 capopenl | -.1685831 .0472397 -3.57 0.000 -.2611712 -.075995 rgdppcln | .9097268 .1393985 6.53 0.000 .6365108 1.182943 gdplnctg | -1.156175 .1715714 -6.74 0.000 -1.492449 -.8199014 contig | 11.5034 1.321761 8.70 0.000 8.9128 14.09401 logdstab | -.3676234 .0796753 -4.61 0.000 -.5237841 -.2114628 majpdyds | 1.265917 .282099 4.49 0.000 .7130128 1.818821 alliesr | .1517688 .2030292 0.75 0.455 -.246161 .5496987 thirdpty | .2840716 .1677218 1.69 0.090 -.0446571 .6128004 fourprty | .9853377 .1522201 6.47 0.000 .6869917 1.283684 cinclo | -1.146425 14.49313 -0.08 0.937 -29.55244 27.25959 lncaprt | -.1490708 .0534199 -2.79 0.005 -.253772 -.0443696 namerica | .2963859 .4069774 0.73 0.466 -.5012752 1.094047 samerica | .8409568 .3808864 2.21 0.027 .0944332 1.58748 europe | -.3711871 .4336703 -0.86 0.392 -1.221165 .4787911 africa | .0855162 .3393437 0.25 0.801 -.5795852 .7506176 nafmeast | .559579 .3114809 1.80 0.072 -.0509123 1.17007 asia | 1.374104 .3447222 3.99 0.000 .6984608 2.049747 _spline1 | .0041452 .0005291 7.83 0.000 .0031082 .0051821 _spline2 | -.003861 .000624 -6.19 0.000 -.005084 -.0026381 _spline3 | .0014786 .000336 4.40 0.000 .0008201 .0021372 _cons | -8.263908 1.280058 -6.46 0.000 -10.77278 -5.75504 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *idlo idhi Vanhanen data; . logit maoznewl idlo idhi tradelo sun2cati iecofrel rgdppcln gdplnctg contig log > dstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europ > e africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -2132.1889 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -1408.1111 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -1155.5165 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -1082.4371 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -1070.5527 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -1069.7025 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -1069.6946 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -1069.6946 Logit estimates Number of obs = 89149 Wald chi2(24) = 1560.43 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -1069.6946 Pseudo R2 = 0.4983 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- idlo | .0019378 .0125531 0.15 0.877 -.0226659 .0265414 idhi | -.0137143 .0112308 -1.22 0.222 -.0357263 .0082978 tradelo | 3.278897 7.325336 0.45 0.654 -11.0785 17.63629 sun2cati | -1.315896 .2055751 -6.40 0.000 -1.718816 -.9129764 iecofrel | -.3087601 .0845489 -3.65 0.000 -.4744728 -.1430473 rgdppcln | .7022228 .1764891 3.98 0.000 .3563104 1.048135 gdplnctg | -.5824653 .2456609 -2.37 0.018 -1.063952 -.1009787 contig | 6.937583 1.944796 3.57 0.000 3.125852 10.74931 logdstab | -.2841512 .1345914 -2.11 0.035 -.5479456 -.0203568 majpdyds | .7911217 .278031 2.85 0.004 .2461911 1.336052 alliesr | .2129033 .2585039 0.82 0.410 -.293755 .7195617 thirdpty | .6149607 .2373546 2.59 0.010 .1497543 1.080167 fourprty | .7952177 .2412375 3.30 0.001 .3224009 1.268034 cinclo | -11.13757 5.292379 -2.10 0.035 -21.51044 -.7646949 lncaprt | -.0661376 .0827666 -0.80 0.424 -.2283572 .096082 namerica | .1548799 .4472441 0.35 0.729 -.7217024 1.031462 samerica | .1717583 .4958648 0.35 0.729 -.8001188 1.143635 europe | -.4536827 .4361015 -1.04 0.298 -1.308426 .4010605 africa | -.1679953 .6057949 -0.28 0.782 -1.355332 1.019341 nafmeast | .143674 .4684538 0.31 0.759 -.7744785 1.061826 asia | 1.588216 .414032 3.84 0.000 .7767283 2.399704 _spline1 | .0054113 .0007452 7.26 0.000 .0039507 .0068718 _spline2 | -.0052021 .0008698 -5.98 0.000 -.0069068 -.0034974 _spline3 | .0020854 .0004552 4.58 0.000 .0011932 .0029776 _cons | -5.526979 1.739951 -3.18 0.001 -8.937221 -2.116737 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *jntid Vanhanen data and KAOPEN data; . logit maoznewl jntid tradelo sun2cati kaopenlo rgdppcln gdplnctg contig logdsta > b majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europe af > rica nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1542.171 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -976.41175 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -818.73192 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -774.14639 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -765.40882 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -764.62884 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -764.61822 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -764.61822 Logit estimates Number of obs = 76556 Wald chi2(23) = 1215.28 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -764.61822 Pseudo R2 = 0.5042 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- jntid | -.0004368 .0004407 -0.99 0.322 -.0013006 .000427 tradelo | 4.731886 14.76818 0.32 0.749 -24.21322 33.67699 sun2cati | -.9034563 .284324 -3.18 0.001 -1.460721 -.3461914 kaopenlo | -.2762551 .1080555 -2.56 0.011 -.48804 -.0644701 rgdppcln | .6831202 .189245 3.61 0.000 .3122068 1.054034 gdplnctg | -1.086929 .2502812 -4.34 0.000 -1.577471 -.5963863 contig | 10.58523 2.034124 5.20 0.000 6.598419 14.57204 logdstab | -.4994289 .1524495 -3.28 0.001 -.7982244 -.2006335 majpdyds | 1.077433 .3723135 2.89 0.004 .3477119 1.807154 alliesr | .1524706 .2685707 0.57 0.570 -.3739182 .6788595 thirdpty | .5833357 .2364282 2.47 0.014 .119945 1.046726 fourprty | 1.033814 .2260369 4.57 0.000 .5907902 1.476839 cinclo | 65.10425 18.47918 3.52 0.000 28.88572 101.3228 lncaprt | .0695978 .0744728 0.93 0.350 -.0763662 .2155619 namerica | -.1018903 .5121579 -0.20 0.842 -1.105701 .9019207 samerica | .4491855 .5672223 0.79 0.428 -.6625498 1.560921 europe | -.611693 .8203223 -0.75 0.456 -2.219495 .9961092 africa | -.5730832 .5577352 -1.03 0.304 -1.666224 .5200576 nafmeast | -.007591 .5299743 -0.01 0.989 -1.046322 1.03114 asia | 1.456357 .4624656 3.15 0.002 .549941 2.362773 _spline1 | .0050563 .0008984 5.63 0.000 .0032953 .0068172 _spline2 | -.0046399 .0010236 -4.53 0.000 -.0066461 -.0026337 _spline3 | .0017254 .0005166 3.34 0.001 .0007129 .002738 _cons | -6.256743 2.034582 -3.08 0.002 -10.24445 -2.269036 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *gasdemlo gasdemhi Gastil Freedom House data; . logit maoznewl gasdemlo gasdemhi tradelo sun2cati fdi_gdpl rgdppcln gdplnctg cn > tigdum logdist majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samer > ica europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1676.7725 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -1093.2002 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -902.79912 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -848.80121 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -838.76942 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -838.0622 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -838.05611 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -838.05611 Logit estimates Number of obs = 98073 Wald chi2(24) = 1334.18 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -838.05611 Pseudo R2 = 0.5002 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- gasdemlo | -.0622148 .0429857 -1.45 0.148 -.1464653 .0220356 gasdemhi | -.0153981 .0476959 -0.32 0.747 -.1088804 .0780843 tradelo | -10.11367 34.463 -0.29 0.769 -77.65992 57.43257 sun2cati | -1.292314 .3078575 -4.20 0.000 -1.895703 -.6889241 fdi_gdpl | -1.007472 .3904564 -2.58 0.010 -1.772752 -.2421913 rgdppcln | .4095437 .2121867 1.93 0.054 -.0063347 .825422 gdplnctg | .0719897 .1070208 0.67 0.501 -.1377673 .2817466 cntigdum | 2.061749 .8742772 2.36 0.018 .3481972 3.775301 logdist | -.3629987 .1246036 -2.91 0.004 -.6072172 -.1187802 majpdyds | 1.710138 .3899977 4.38 0.000 .945757 2.47452 alliesr | .4947598 .2945606 1.68 0.093 -.0825683 1.072088 thirdpty | .6909682 .2512996 2.75 0.006 .1984302 1.183506 fourprty | .8597341 .2570012 3.35 0.001 .356021 1.363447 cinclo | -23.0992 12.95011 -1.78 0.074 -48.48094 2.282542 lncaprt | -.1614782 .0717428 -2.25 0.024 -.3020915 -.0208649 namerica | .1413091 .4971303 0.28 0.776 -.8330485 1.115667 samerica | .3704362 .5443267 0.68 0.496 -.6964246 1.437297 europe | -1.162125 .8527476 -1.36 0.173 -2.833479 .5092297 africa | .1792294 .5157049 0.35 0.728 -.8315336 1.189992 nafmeast | -.1823971 .4978839 -0.37 0.714 -1.158232 .7934373 asia | 1.790129 .4661746 3.84 0.000 .8764434 2.703814 _spline1 | .0052875 .0008787 6.02 0.000 .0035653 .0070098 _spline2 | -.0050176 .0010231 -4.90 0.000 -.0070227 -.0030124 _spline3 | .001959 .0005284 3.71 0.000 .0009233 .0029946 _cons | -3.810875 2.021618 -1.89 0.059 -7.773174 .151424 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 23 failures and 0 successes completely determined. . *jtgasdem Gastil Freedom House data; . logit maoznewl jtgasdem tradelo sun2cati fdi_gdpl rgdppcln gdplnctg cntigdum lo > gdist majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europ > e africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1676.7725 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -1092.8527 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -901.78524 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -847.46627 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -837.37527 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -836.67202 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -836.66613 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -836.66613 Logit estimates Number of obs = 98073 Wald chi2(23) = 1315.85 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -836.66613 Pseudo R2 = 0.5010 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- jtgasdem | -.0076167 .0039722 -1.92 0.055 -.0154022 .0001687 tradelo | -8.601839 32.92271 -0.26 0.794 -73.12916 55.92548 sun2cati | -1.284887 .308735 -4.16 0.000 -1.889996 -.6797772 fdi_gdpl | -.9683784 .3804234 -2.55 0.011 -1.713995 -.2227622 rgdppcln | .4329543 .2100654 2.06 0.039 .0212337 .8446748 gdplnctg | .0779068 .1076672 0.72 0.469 -.1331171 .2889306 cntigdum | 2.032249 .8726301 2.33 0.020 .3219259 3.742573 logdist | -.3622465 .1250815 -2.90 0.004 -.6074017 -.1170912 majpdyds | 1.753282 .3874827 4.52 0.000 .9938295 2.512734 alliesr | .5382547 .2899508 1.86 0.063 -.0300385 1.106548 thirdpty | .6686824 .2504787 2.67 0.008 .1777531 1.159612 fourprty | .8326299 .2526541 3.30 0.001 .337437 1.327823 cinclo | -23.23493 12.75504 -1.82 0.069 -48.23434 1.764486 lncaprt | -.1559469 .0721077 -2.16 0.031 -.2972754 -.0146185 namerica | .1242853 .4918125 0.25 0.800 -.8396495 1.08822 samerica | .3303335 .5506194 0.60 0.549 -.7488606 1.409528 europe | -1.134399 .8365841 -1.36 0.175 -2.774073 .505276 africa | .1451798 .5110001 0.28 0.776 -.8563619 1.146721 nafmeast | -.2198948 .4969812 -0.44 0.658 -1.19396 .7541704 asia | 1.753445 .4674773 3.75 0.000 .837206 2.669683 _spline1 | .0052989 .0008711 6.08 0.000 .0035917 .0070061 _spline2 | -.0050218 .001016 -4.94 0.000 -.0070132 -.0030304 _spline3 | .0019553 .0005259 3.72 0.000 .0009245 .0029861 _cons | -4.108968 1.955979 -2.10 0.036 -7.942617 -.2753186 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ note: 20 failures and 0 successes completely determined. . *comment: other measures for markets; . *Chinn and Ito; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati kaopenlo rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1446.7201 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -883.86381 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -746.69334 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -706.68517 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -698.00413 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -697.18504 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -697.17281 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -697.17281 Logit estimates Number of obs = 68045 Wald chi2(24) = 1214.89 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -697.17281 Pseudo R2 = 0.5181 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.050265 .0336834 -1.49 0.136 -.1162833 .0157533 polityhi | -.0638674 .0440976 -1.45 0.148 -.150297 .0225623 tradelo | -4.010023 22.88436 -0.18 0.861 -48.86254 40.84249 sun2cati | -1.003645 .2607798 -3.85 0.000 -1.514764 -.4925255 kaopenlo | -.2997445 .0966762 -3.10 0.002 -.4892264 -.1102625 rgdppcln | .7494842 .1767015 4.24 0.000 .4031556 1.095813 gdplnctg | -.9710022 .2542723 -3.82 0.000 -1.469367 -.4726376 contig | 9.7242 2.034892 4.78 0.000 5.735886 13.71251 logdstab | -.5063199 .1513287 -3.35 0.001 -.8029187 -.2097212 majpdyds | .9092443 .3875325 2.35 0.019 .1496947 1.668794 alliesr | -.0686209 .3189087 -0.22 0.830 -.6936706 .5564287 thirdpty | .4734074 .2601188 1.82 0.069 -.0364161 .9832309 fourprty | .8755048 .2222204 3.94 0.000 .4399609 1.311049 cinclo | 71.97769 20.98692 3.43 0.001 30.84409 113.1113 lncaprt | .1401051 .0801612 1.75 0.081 -.017008 .2972181 namerica | .5145703 .5582966 0.92 0.357 -.5796709 1.608812 samerica | .5816157 .6347516 0.92 0.360 -.6624746 1.825706 europe | -.4384196 .747614 -0.59 0.558 -1.903716 1.026877 africa | -.7131218 .5435662 -1.31 0.190 -1.778492 .3522485 nafmeast | -.4492572 .5163018 -0.87 0.384 -1.46119 .5626757 asia | 1.439498 .4427491 3.25 0.001 .5717256 2.30727 _spline1 | .0046287 .0009427 4.91 0.000 .0027811 .0064763 _spline2 | -.0039475 .0010712 -3.69 0.000 -.006047 -.0018481 _spline3 | .0012725 .0005352 2.38 0.017 .0002236 .0023214 _cons | -5.947238 1.917647 -3.10 0.002 -9.705757 -2.188719 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *jtkaopen; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati jtkaopen rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -1446.7201 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -884.22404 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -746.21999 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -706.43557 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -698.01879 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -697.23362 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -697.22189 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -697.22188 Logit estimates Number of obs = 68045 Wald chi2(24) = 1143.41 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -697.22188 Pseudo R2 = 0.5181 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0481853 .0329333 -1.46 0.143 -.1127334 .0163629 polityhi | -.0464603 .042696 -1.09 0.277 -.1301429 .0372223 tradelo | -5.372586 23.48815 -0.23 0.819 -51.40851 40.66334 sun2cati | -1.009245 .2509434 -4.02 0.000 -1.501085 -.5174051 jtkaopen | -.1053785 .0322854 -3.26 0.001 -.1686566 -.0421004 rgdppcln | .6312345 .1741794 3.62 0.000 .2898492 .9726198 gdplnctg | -1.00959 .2610308 -3.87 0.000 -1.521201 -.4979794 contig | 10.06265 2.097383 4.80 0.000 5.951856 14.17345 logdstab | -.5580788 .1676022 -3.33 0.001 -.8865731 -.2295844 majpdyds | .6831922 .3853147 1.77 0.076 -.0720107 1.438395 alliesr | -.0032109 .3202478 -0.01 0.992 -.6308851 .6244633 thirdpty | .4669342 .2652071 1.76 0.078 -.0528621 .9867304 fourprty | .8250849 .2274593 3.63 0.000 .3792728 1.270897 cinclo | 73.89306 20.35023 3.63 0.000 34.00735 113.7788 lncaprt | .1220831 .0804802 1.52 0.129 -.0356553 .2798215 namerica | .3866645 .546645 0.71 0.479 -.6847399 1.458069 samerica | .5383306 .6411972 0.84 0.401 -.7183927 1.795054 europe | -.5203205 .7313241 -0.71 0.477 -1.953689 .9130483 africa | -.8654596 .5698541 -1.52 0.129 -1.982353 .2514338 nafmeast | -.4864778 .5182291 -0.94 0.348 -1.502188 .5292326 asia | .9827389 .459294 2.14 0.032 .0825392 1.882939 _spline1 | .0046727 .0009534 4.90 0.000 .0028042 .0065413 _spline2 | -.0039807 .0010848 -3.67 0.000 -.0061069 -.0018545 _spline3 | .0012801 .0005421 2.36 0.018 .0002175 .0023426 _cons | -4.365582 1.973693 -2.21 0.027 -8.233949 -.4972162 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *econfrel; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati econfrel rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -446.77322 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -299.81133 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -246.06902 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -229.06331 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -224.59237 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -223.35571 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -223.07066 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -223.05156 Iteration 8: log pseudolikelihood = -223.05146 Logit estimates Number of obs = 17883 Wald chi2(24) = 863.17 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -223.05146 Pseudo R2 = 0.5008 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | .0855039 .0524846 1.63 0.103 -.017364 .1883718 polityhi | .0478275 .0665609 0.72 0.472 -.0826295 .1782846 tradelo | -3.159115 25.52923 -0.12 0.902 -53.19548 46.87725 sun2cati | -.9200944 .341787 -2.69 0.007 -1.589985 -.2502041 econfrel | -.3098669 .1215839 -2.55 0.011 -.5481668 -.0715669 rgdppcln | .4206596 .3567509 1.18 0.238 -.2785593 1.119879 gdplnctg | -.4994094 .3761823 -1.33 0.184 -1.236713 .2378943 contig | 5.828082 2.955901 1.97 0.049 .0346232 11.62154 logdstab | -.4230411 .1827763 -2.31 0.021 -.7812762 -.0648061 majpdyds | 1.242731 .4676488 2.66 0.008 .3261563 2.159306 alliesr | .6235847 .4089378 1.52 0.127 -.1779186 1.425088 thirdpty | .2733925 .3786872 0.72 0.470 -.4688208 1.015606 fourprty | .5415517 .4165587 1.30 0.194 -.2748884 1.357992 cinclo | -2.572827 5.89787 -0.44 0.663 -14.13244 8.986785 lncaprt | -.0697352 .129601 -0.54 0.591 -.3237485 .1842782 namerica | .244834 .6419398 0.38 0.703 -1.013345 1.503013 samerica | .6920659 .6393731 1.08 0.279 -.5610824 1.945214 europe | -1.027571 .624803 -1.64 0.100 -2.252162 .1970206 africa | .1039152 .7605406 0.14 0.891 -1.386717 1.594547 nafmeast | .9317866 .7409107 1.26 0.209 -.5203718 2.383945 asia | 1.511423 .5924269 2.55 0.011 .3502879 2.672559 _spline1 | .0067393 .0018342 3.67 0.000 .0031442 .0103343 _spline2 | -.0083444 .002403 -3.47 0.001 -.0130542 -.0036346 _spline3 | .0047687 .0014771 3.23 0.001 .0018737 .0076638 _cons | -3.60312 3.130438 -1.15 0.250 -9.738665 2.532426 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *iecofrel; . logit maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati iecofrel rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -2034.9973 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -1304.8198 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -1072.8423 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -1010.5431 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -999.94348 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -999.20446 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -999.19803 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -999.19802 Logit estimates Number of obs = 81064 Wald chi2(24) = 1470.79 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -999.19802 Pseudo R2 = 0.5090 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.022439 .0297473 -0.75 0.451 -.0807426 .0358647 polityhi | -.027959 .0405078 -0.69 0.490 -.1073528 .0514348 tradelo | -1.779024 8.545973 -0.21 0.835 -18.52882 14.97078 sun2cati | -1.16987 .2042501 -5.73 0.000 -1.570193 -.7695475 iecofrel | -.2452054 .0778751 -3.15 0.002 -.3978377 -.092573 rgdppcln | .704186 .1699275 4.14 0.000 .3711342 1.037238 gdplnctg | -.5518008 .2418939 -2.28 0.023 -1.025904 -.0776975 contig | 6.609508 1.910922 3.46 0.001 2.864171 10.35485 logdstab | -.3034158 .1378389 -2.20 0.028 -.5735751 -.0332566 majpdyds | .5773456 .2786383 2.07 0.038 .0312245 1.123467 alliesr | .0792636 .2616196 0.30 0.762 -.4335014 .5920286 thirdpty | .5345232 .2512622 2.13 0.033 .0420584 1.026988 fourprty | .73927 .2377067 3.11 0.002 .2733734 1.205167 cinclo | -5.262142 4.952949 -1.06 0.288 -14.96974 4.44546 lncaprt | .0595902 .0865503 0.69 0.491 -.1100453 .2292256 namerica | .7113717 .4661436 1.53 0.127 -.2022529 1.624996 samerica | .4177586 .5319874 0.79 0.432 -.6249175 1.460435 europe | -.546809 .4346066 -1.26 0.208 -1.398622 .3050042 africa | .0059808 .5956171 0.01 0.992 -1.161407 1.173369 nafmeast | .0376356 .4748569 0.08 0.937 -.8930667 .968338 asia | 1.587038 .4022595 3.95 0.000 .7986238 2.375452 _spline1 | .0050682 .0007498 6.76 0.000 .0035986 .0065378 _spline2 | -.0046629 .0008662 -5.38 0.000 -.0063607 -.0029651 _spline3 | .0017418 .0004481 3.89 0.000 .0008636 .00262 _cons | -5.748264 1.756929 -3.27 0.001 -9.191781 -2.304746 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *icapitlo; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati icapitlo rgdppcln gdplnctg contig log > dstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europ > e africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -2587.249 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2218.5583 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -1469.0438 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -1359.5529 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -1340.2799 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -1339.0949 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -1339.0875 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -1339.0875 Logit estimates Number of obs = 80062 Wald chi2(24) = 1165.38 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -1339.0875 Pseudo R2 = 0.4824 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0031072 .0124585 0.25 0.803 -.0213111 .0275254 demhi | -.0021718 .0198382 -0.11 0.913 -.041054 .0367104 deplo | -25.93259 18.76568 -1.38 0.167 -62.71264 10.84746 sun2cati | -.800089 .2563915 -3.12 0.002 -1.302607 -.2975709 icapitlo | -.0137631 .0052026 -2.65 0.008 -.02396 -.0035662 rgdppcln | .6777804 .2058929 3.29 0.001 .2742378 1.081323 gdplnctg | -.7546878 .2414874 -3.13 0.002 -1.227994 -.2813813 contig | 7.447814 1.842509 4.04 0.000 3.836563 11.05907 logdstab | -.6156073 .1404275 -4.38 0.000 -.8908402 -.3403744 majpdyds | 1.377091 .3219527 4.28 0.000 .7460753 2.008107 alliesr | -.0690148 .3460428 -0.20 0.842 -.7472462 .6092167 thirdpty | .1838082 .2231329 0.82 0.410 -.2535242 .6211406 fourprty | .7373608 .2124591 3.47 0.001 .3209485 1.153773 cinclo | 3.244217 8.100468 0.40 0.689 -12.63241 19.12084 lncaprt | -.1182454 .0922508 -1.28 0.200 -.2990535 .0625628 namerica | .5764469 .5420669 1.06 0.288 -.4859847 1.638879 samerica | 1.021116 .6234834 1.64 0.101 -.200889 2.243121 europe | -1.336216 .6233907 -2.14 0.032 -2.55804 -.114393 africa | .7239108 .5153535 1.40 0.160 -.2861635 1.733985 nafmeast | .9164006 .4165958 2.20 0.028 .0998877 1.732913 asia | 1.27804 .4130209 3.09 0.002 .4685341 2.087546 _spline1 | .005288 .0006964 7.59 0.000 .003923 .0066529 _spline2 | -.005165 .0008105 -6.37 0.000 -.0067535 -.0035765 _spline3 | .0021274 .0004331 4.91 0.000 .0012785 .0029763 _cons | -3.971195 1.972317 -2.01 0.044 -7.836864 -.1055255 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *comment: other measures for Development; . *Mossaeau controls: replication of Oneal and Russett standard model; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo demgdpln contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr cinc > lo lncaprt thirdpty fourprty namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _spl > ine*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -8794.3151 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -8054.0343 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -5456.1865 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -5005.7027 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -4920.9679 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -4914.1251 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -4914.0193 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -4914.0192 Logit estimates Number of obs = 278161 Wald chi2(21) = 1819.57 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -4914.0192 Pseudo R2 = 0.4412 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.2349056 .0950484 -2.47 0.013 -.4211972 -.0486141 demhi | .0380283 .0106546 3.57 0.000 .0171457 .0589109 deplo | -37.40742 16.45992 -2.27 0.023 -69.66828 -5.146563 demgdpln | .0241261 .0120296 2.01 0.045 .0005485 .0477037 contig | 2.000529 .1956825 10.22 0.000 1.616998 2.384059 logdstab | -.5822388 .0796167 -7.31 0.000 -.7382846 -.426193 majpdyds | 1.817104 .2404383 7.56 0.000 1.345854 2.288355 alliesr | -.4147128 .195264 -2.12 0.034 -.7974232 -.0320023 cinclo | 11.29657 5.861481 1.93 0.054 -.1917236 22.78486 lncaprt | -.1986419 .0509473 -3.90 0.000 -.2984968 -.098787 thirdpty | .375851 .1254099 3.00 0.003 .130052 .6216499 fourprty | 1.431566 .1328767 10.77 0.000 1.171133 1.692 namerica | -.0051694 .3248572 -0.02 0.987 -.6418778 .631539 samerica | .9148828 .4586489 1.99 0.046 .0159475 1.813818 europe | -.7198708 .2728507 -2.64 0.008 -1.254648 -.1850932 africa | .6495612 .3018234 2.15 0.031 .0579983 1.241124 nafmeast | .8701448 .2661764 3.27 0.001 .3484485 1.391841 asia | 1.340869 .2631706 5.10 0.000 .8250637 1.856673 _spline1 | .0049753 .0004743 10.49 0.000 .0040457 .0059049 _spline2 | -.0048581 .0005688 -8.54 0.000 -.005973 -.0037433 _spline3 | .0019837 .0003141 6.31 0.000 .001368 .0025994 _cons | -1.165909 .6768262 -1.72 0.085 -2.492464 .1606458 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding capital; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl demgdpln contig logdstab majpdyds all > ies cinclo lncaprt thirdpty fourprty namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast a > sia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3844.7016 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2609.3745 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2219.8827 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2127.0134 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2114.9625 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2114.587 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2114.5865 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171509 Wald chi2(22) = 1838.02 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2114.5865 Pseudo R2 = 0.4500 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0795432 .1006156 0.79 0.429 -.1176597 .2767461 demhi | .0025632 .0119565 0.21 0.830 -.020871 .0259975 deplo | -16.0662 10.3841 -1.55 0.122 -36.41865 4.286256 capopenl | -.1644866 .049817 -3.30 0.001 -.2621261 -.0668471 demgdpln | -.0110272 .0131429 -0.84 0.401 -.0367869 .0147324 contig | 2.718155 .292387 9.30 0.000 2.145087 3.291223 logdstab | -.4333181 .0910293 -4.76 0.000 -.6117322 -.254904 majpdyds | 1.800097 .3554197 5.06 0.000 1.103487 2.496707 alliesr | -.250465 .2242981 -1.12 0.264 -.6900813 .1891513 cinclo | -10.2914 14.89678 -0.69 0.490 -39.48855 18.90575 lncaprt | -.1074114 .0599868 -1.79 0.073 -.2249833 .0101606 thirdpty | .4250595 .1767472 2.40 0.016 .0786413 .7714776 fourprty | 1.171868 .1715338 6.83 0.000 .8356678 1.508068 namerica | .4325154 .4480158 0.97 0.334 -.4455794 1.31061 samerica | .5596076 .4044769 1.38 0.167 -.2331526 1.352368 europe | -.7072064 .5091853 -1.39 0.165 -1.705191 .2907785 africa | .4280287 .3460683 1.24 0.216 -.2502527 1.10631 nafmeast | .4358846 .3301601 1.32 0.187 -.2112173 1.082986 asia | .958367 .3712544 2.58 0.010 .2307217 1.686012 _spline1 | .0043222 .000589 7.34 0.000 .0031677 .0054767 _spline2 | -.0039297 .0006755 -5.82 0.000 -.0052536 -.0026057 _spline3 | .0014246 .0003493 4.08 0.000 .00074 .0021092 _cons | -1.604963 .7912082 -2.03 0.043 -3.155702 -.054223 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding GDP/pop.; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo demgdpln contig logdstab maj > pdyds allies cinclo lncaprt thirdpty fourprty namerica samerica europe africa n > afmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3844.7016 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2608.6617 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2219.0671 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2126.0714 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2114.0258 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2113.6518 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2113.6512 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171509 Wald chi2(23) = 1814.92 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2113.6512 Pseudo R2 = 0.4502 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0500599 .0992908 0.50 0.614 -.1445465 .2446663 demhi | .0027683 .0118806 0.23 0.816 -.0205173 .026054 deplo | -21.29377 13.16572 -1.62 0.106 -47.0981 4.510565 capopenl | -.181295 .0566553 -3.20 0.001 -.2923373 -.0702526 rgdppclo | .0000411 .000036 1.14 0.253 -.0000294 .0001116 demgdpln | -.0076382 .0129229 -0.59 0.554 -.0329666 .0176903 contig | 2.717422 .2919332 9.31 0.000 2.145243 3.289601 logdstab | -.4311373 .091032 -4.74 0.000 -.6095567 -.2527178 majpdyds | 1.774666 .3546668 5.00 0.000 1.079532 2.4698 alliesr | -.2592286 .2246829 -1.15 0.249 -.699599 .1811418 cinclo | -12.6546 14.471 -0.87 0.382 -41.01725 15.70804 lncaprt | -.1085986 .059926 -1.81 0.070 -.2260514 .0088543 thirdpty | .4086765 .1752121 2.33 0.020 .0652671 .7520859 fourprty | 1.149585 .169725 6.77 0.000 .8169296 1.48224 namerica | .4699956 .4468731 1.05 0.293 -.4058596 1.345851 samerica | .5586291 .4059219 1.38 0.169 -.2369633 1.354221 europe | -.7631364 .497505 -1.53 0.125 -1.738228 .2119556 africa | .4590445 .3495272 1.31 0.189 -.2260163 1.144105 nafmeast | .3914993 .333862 1.17 0.241 -.2628582 1.045857 asia | 1.006514 .3705109 2.72 0.007 .2803259 1.732702 _spline1 | .0043198 .0005895 7.33 0.000 .0031644 .0054752 _spline2 | -.0039264 .0006761 -5.81 0.000 -.0052515 -.0026012 _spline3 | .0014234 .0003496 4.07 0.000 .0007381 .0021087 _cons | -1.669278 .789003 -2.12 0.034 -3.215696 -.1228608 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding contiguity x GDP/pop.; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg demgdpln contig log > dstab majpdyds allies cinclo lncaprt thirdpty fourprty namerica samerica europe > africa nafmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3844.7016 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2592.2148 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2199.7908 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2103.6946 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2090.2867 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2089.8171 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2089.8162 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171509 Wald chi2(24) = 1803.55 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2089.8162 Pseudo R2 = 0.4564 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0012986 .0907249 0.01 0.989 -.176519 .1791161 demhi | .0037648 .0121273 0.31 0.756 -.0200042 .0275339 deplo | -5.092429 8.413671 -0.61 0.545 -21.58292 11.39806 capopenl | -.1803752 .0548802 -3.29 0.001 -.2879383 -.072812 rgdppclo | .000203 .0000376 5.39 0.000 .0001292 .0002768 gdpcontg | -.0002853 .0000482 -5.92 0.000 -.0003798 -.0001908 demgdpln | -.0007937 .0114765 -0.07 0.945 -.0232873 .0216999 contig | 3.393772 .3003886 11.30 0.000 2.805022 3.982523 logdstab | -.4046308 .0880613 -4.59 0.000 -.5772278 -.2320339 majpdyds | 1.746094 .3442969 5.07 0.000 1.071284 2.420903 alliesr | -.2520108 .2207534 -1.14 0.254 -.6846796 .180658 cinclo | -5.828381 16.79382 -0.35 0.729 -38.74367 27.08691 lncaprt | -.1043325 .0573827 -1.82 0.069 -.2168004 .0081355 thirdpty | .3393907 .1698956 2.00 0.046 .0064016 .6723799 fourprty | 1.111377 .1606952 6.92 0.000 .7964197 1.426333 namerica | .5340843 .4529094 1.18 0.238 -.3536018 1.42177 samerica | .6566399 .3967804 1.65 0.098 -.1210355 1.434315 europe | -.7031383 .4487167 -1.57 0.117 -1.582607 .1763301 africa | .3202012 .3493132 0.92 0.359 -.3644401 1.004842 nafmeast | .5446743 .3084964 1.77 0.077 -.0599674 1.149316 asia | .8231162 .3810462 2.16 0.031 .0762794 1.569953 _spline1 | .0043044 .0005851 7.36 0.000 .0031577 .0054511 _spline2 | -.0039244 .0006729 -5.83 0.000 -.0052432 -.0026055 _spline3 | .0014372 .0003488 4.12 0.000 .0007536 .0021208 _cons | -2.263421 .7813696 -2.90 0.004 -3.794877 -.7319646 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding interests; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg sun2cati demgdpln c > ontig logdstab majpdyds allies cinclo lncaprt thirdpty fourprty _spline*, clust > er(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2580.6151 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2160.9805 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2048.1409 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2032.3227 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2031.6709 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2031.6692 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(19) = 1800.36 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2031.6692 Pseudo R2 = 0.4611 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .1122006 .0975333 1.15 0.250 -.0789613 .3033624 demhi | -.0142933 .0127058 -1.12 0.261 -.0391963 .0106096 deplo | 2.258066 8.050654 0.28 0.779 -13.52093 18.03706 capopenl | -.159288 .0541497 -2.94 0.003 -.2654195 -.0531566 rgdppclo | .0001784 .0000386 4.63 0.000 .0001028 .000254 gdpcontg | -.0003099 .0000542 -5.72 0.000 -.0004162 -.0002037 sun2cati | -.9251082 .1953163 -4.74 0.000 -1.307921 -.5422952 demgdpln | -.0142485 .0122257 -1.17 0.244 -.0382105 .0097135 contig | 3.688412 .2757507 13.38 0.000 3.14795 4.228873 logdstab | -.3984698 .0790167 -5.04 0.000 -.5533396 -.2436 majpdyds | 1.11931 .2760342 4.05 0.000 .578293 1.660327 alliesr | -.0365294 .2179011 -0.17 0.867 -.4636077 .3905488 cinclo | 17.41417 9.277033 1.88 0.061 -.7684793 35.59682 lncaprt | -.086264 .0575297 -1.50 0.134 -.19902 .0264921 thirdpty | .3892677 .1656866 2.35 0.019 .064528 .7140074 fourprty | 1.146392 .1558155 7.36 0.000 .8409993 1.451785 _spline1 | .0044308 .000578 7.67 0.000 .003298 .0055636 _spline2 | -.0040415 .0006734 -6.00 0.000 -.0053613 -.0027217 _spline3 | .0014792 .0003532 4.19 0.000 .000787 .0021714 _cons | -1.50952 .7077385 -2.13 0.033 -2.896662 -.1223779 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . * Measures for similar interests; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig log > dstab majpdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _sp > line*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2563.599 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2156.4616 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2049.9244 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2033.5486 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2032.8341 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2032.832 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(21) = 1700.98 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2032.832 Pseudo R2 = 0.4607 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0011305 .012327 -0.09 0.927 -.0252909 .0230299 demhi | -.0143591 .0122329 -1.17 0.240 -.0383352 .009617 deplo | -4.215048 8.403694 -0.50 0.616 -20.68598 12.25589 sun2cati | -1.171537 .1971046 -5.94 0.000 -1.557855 -.7852191 capopenl | -.2018497 .0594202 -3.40 0.001 -.3183111 -.0853882 rgdppclo | .000222 .0000368 6.03 0.000 .0001498 .0002942 gdpcontg | -.0002894 .00005 -5.79 0.000 -.0003874 -.0001914 contig | 3.428292 .2629782 13.04 0.000 2.912864 3.94372 logdstab | -.4099244 .0897938 -4.57 0.000 -.5859171 -.2339317 majpdyds | 1.566355 .2995293 5.23 0.000 .9792884 2.153422 alliesr | .063493 .2428819 0.26 0.794 -.4125468 .5395327 lncaprt | -.164574 .0579636 -2.84 0.005 -.2781806 -.0509675 namerica | .7237426 .4728222 1.53 0.126 -.202972 1.650457 samerica | 1.094862 .4215374 2.60 0.009 .2686635 1.92106 europe | -.4272748 .4623467 -0.92 0.355 -1.333458 .4789081 africa | .0396097 .3495056 0.11 0.910 -.6454087 .724628 nafmeast | .8984526 .2968223 3.03 0.002 .3166916 1.480214 asia | 1.277096 .3503503 3.65 0.000 .5904216 1.96377 _spline1 | .0043949 .0005863 7.50 0.000 .0032457 .005544 _spline2 | -.0040358 .0006765 -5.97 0.000 -.0053617 -.0027099 _spline3 | .0014913 .0003507 4.25 0.000 .0008039 .0021787 _cons | -1.163525 .7959685 -1.46 0.144 -2.723595 .3965442 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *UN residuals; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo residsun capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig log > dstab majpdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _sp > line*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2563.599 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2156.4616 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2049.9244 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2033.5486 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2032.8341 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2032.832 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(21) = 1700.98 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2032.832 Pseudo R2 = 0.4607 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0085388 .0126002 -0.68 0.498 -.0332347 .0161571 demhi | .0027595 .0124162 0.22 0.824 -.0215758 .0270949 deplo | -4.215048 8.403694 -0.50 0.616 -20.68598 12.25589 residsun | -1.171537 .1971046 -5.94 0.000 -1.557855 -.7852192 capopenl | -.2018497 .0594202 -3.40 0.001 -.3183111 -.0853882 rgdppclo | .000222 .0000368 6.03 0.000 .0001498 .0002942 gdpcontg | -.0002894 .00005 -5.79 0.000 -.0003874 -.0001914 contig | 3.428292 .2629782 13.04 0.000 2.912864 3.94372 logdstab | -.4099244 .0897938 -4.57 0.000 -.5859171 -.2339317 majpdyds | 1.566355 .2995293 5.23 0.000 .9792884 2.153421 alliesr | .063493 .2428819 0.26 0.794 -.4125468 .5395327 lncaprt | -.164574 .0579636 -2.84 0.005 -.2781806 -.0509675 namerica | .7237426 .4728222 1.53 0.126 -.202972 1.650457 samerica | 1.094862 .4215374 2.60 0.009 .2686635 1.92106 europe | -.4272748 .4623467 -0.92 0.355 -1.333458 .4789081 africa | .0396097 .3495056 0.11 0.910 -.6454087 .724628 nafmeast | .8984526 .2968223 3.03 0.002 .3166916 1.480214 asia | 1.277096 .3503503 3.65 0.000 .5904216 1.96377 _spline1 | .0043949 .0005863 7.50 0.000 .0032457 .005544 _spline2 | -.0040358 .0006765 -5.97 0.000 -.0053617 -.0027099 _spline3 | .0014913 .0003507 4.25 0.000 .0008039 .0021787 _cons | -2.088868 .7871273 -2.65 0.008 -3.63161 -.5461271 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *IGO ties; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo s_igocount_uw capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg conti > g logdstab majpdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asi > a _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3844.6312 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2609.2362 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2217.7026 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2122.0275 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2109.2096 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2108.7946 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2108.7939 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171488 Wald chi2(21) = 1731.33 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2108.7939 Pseudo R2 = 0.4515 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0185859 .012755 -1.46 0.145 -.0435853 .0064135 demhi | .0142461 .0125422 1.14 0.256 -.0103362 .0388283 deplo | -2.797538 8.213178 -0.34 0.733 -18.89507 13.29999 s_igocount~w | 4.072315 1.160551 3.51 0.000 1.797678 6.346953 capopenl | -.2058602 .0569056 -3.62 0.000 -.3173932 -.0943272 rgdppclo | .0002187 .0000393 5.56 0.000 .0001416 .0002958 gdpcontg | -.0002888 .000049 -5.90 0.000 -.0003848 -.0001928 contig | 3.392973 .3099334 10.95 0.000 2.785514 4.000431 logdstab | -.3993234 .0898662 -4.44 0.000 -.5754578 -.2231889 majpdyds | 1.965462 .355199 5.53 0.000 1.269285 2.661639 alliesr | -.3544436 .2289281 -1.55 0.122 -.8031345 .0942473 lncaprt | -.0311311 .0637 -0.49 0.625 -.1559809 .0937186 namerica | .5527587 .4739032 1.17 0.243 -.3760744 1.481592 samerica | .7339294 .3787977 1.94 0.053 -.0085004 1.476359 europe | -1.046221 .4817884 -2.17 0.030 -1.990509 -.1019336 africa | .102624 .3483498 0.29 0.768 -.580129 .7853771 nafmeast | .9127658 .3000679 3.04 0.002 .3246435 1.500888 asia | .489696 .3688346 1.33 0.184 -.2332066 1.212599 _spline1 | .0044558 .0006095 7.31 0.000 .0032612 .0056503 _spline2 | -.0040968 .0006957 -5.89 0.000 -.0054603 -.0027332 _spline3 | .0015188 .000356 4.27 0.000 .000821 .0022166 _cons | -5.655623 1.243781 -4.55 0.000 -8.093388 -3.217858 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *learning - Cederman; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig log > dstab majpdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia dem > year1 autyear1, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2655.694 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2349.4201 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2282.5627 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2275.1978 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2275.0423 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2275.0422 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(20) = 1419.71 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2275.0422 Pseudo R2 = 0.3965 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0044939 .0149399 -0.30 0.764 -.0337755 .0247878 demhi | -.009342 .0284476 -0.33 0.743 -.0650983 .0464142 deplo | -10.49614 9.735082 -1.08 0.281 -29.57655 8.584265 sun2cati | -1.32603 .2591213 -5.12 0.000 -1.833898 -.8181614 capopenl | -.1982004 .0651757 -3.04 0.002 -.3259424 -.0704584 rgdppclo | .000189 .0000364 5.19 0.000 .0001177 .0002604 gdpcontg | -.0002685 .0000724 -3.71 0.000 -.0004103 -.0001266 contig | 3.818517 .3442577 11.09 0.000 3.143784 4.49325 logdstab | -.5759986 .1002056 -5.75 0.000 -.772398 -.3795992 majpdyds | 1.159355 .3471977 3.34 0.001 .47886 1.83985 alliesr | -.1647605 .3475921 -0.47 0.635 -.8460285 .5165075 lncaprt | -.1335024 .0703362 -1.90 0.058 -.2713587 .004354 namerica | .5592846 .5747243 0.97 0.330 -.5671543 1.685723 samerica | .9724589 .5958801 1.63 0.103 -.1954446 2.140362 europe | -.9073504 .5302942 -1.71 0.087 -1.946708 .1320072 africa | .1509947 .4677901 0.32 0.747 -.765857 1.067846 nafmeast | 1.372881 .36137 3.80 0.000 .6646084 2.081153 asia | 1.426643 .4162246 3.43 0.001 .6108582 2.242429 demyear1 | .0095753 .0102076 0.94 0.348 -.0104313 .0295818 autyear1 | .0096044 .0102331 0.94 0.348 -.0104521 .0296609 _cons | -20.38636 20.09711 -1.01 0.310 -59.77597 19.00325 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig log > dstab majpdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia dem > year2 autyear2, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2655.8146 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2349.0655 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2282.1544 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2274.7795 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2274.6236 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2274.6235 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(20) = 1427.33 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2274.6235 Pseudo R2 = 0.3966 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0100204 .0257063 0.39 0.697 -.0403631 .0604039 demhi | -.0136433 .0143099 -0.95 0.340 -.0416902 .0144035 deplo | -11.05024 9.539257 -1.16 0.247 -29.74685 7.646356 sun2cati | -1.330942 .2565801 -5.19 0.000 -1.83383 -.828054 capopenl | -.2001241 .0651279 -3.07 0.002 -.3277725 -.0724758 rgdppclo | .0001926 .0000362 5.33 0.000 .0001217 .0002635 gdpcontg | -.0002671 .0000726 -3.68 0.000 -.0004093 -.0001249 contig | 3.816358 .3440728 11.09 0.000 3.141987 4.490728 logdstab | -.5760457 .0999748 -5.76 0.000 -.7719927 -.3800987 majpdyds | 1.153776 .3460533 3.33 0.001 .4755236 1.832028 alliesr | -.1567807 .3447586 -0.45 0.649 -.8324951 .5189337 lncaprt | -.1305862 .0708679 -1.84 0.065 -.2694848 .0083124 namerica | .5411482 .5664619 0.96 0.339 -.5690968 1.651393 samerica | .9638874 .5887531 1.64 0.102 -.1900475 2.117822 europe | -.9056339 .5287066 -1.71 0.087 -1.94188 .1306121 africa | .1489334 .4662621 0.32 0.749 -.7649234 1.06279 nafmeast | 1.371058 .3602989 3.81 0.000 .664885 2.077231 asia | 1.427146 .4181403 3.41 0.001 .6076055 2.246686 demyear2 | .0094988 .0101427 0.94 0.349 -.0103804 .0293781 autyear2 | .009638 .0101246 0.95 0.341 -.0102059 .0294818 _cons | -20.36533 19.91754 -1.02 0.307 -59.40298 18.67233 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig log > dstab majpdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia dem > year1, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2657.2861 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2350.759 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2283.7949 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2276.3906 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2276.2343 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2276.2342 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(19) = 1425.04 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2276.2342 Pseudo R2 = 0.3962 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0027089 .014282 -0.19 0.850 -.0307011 .0252832 demhi | -.0102495 .0284908 -0.36 0.719 -.0660906 .0455915 deplo | -11.41305 9.973376 -1.14 0.252 -30.9605 8.134411 sun2cati | -1.301149 .2501769 -5.20 0.000 -1.791486 -.810811 capopenl | -.1937158 .0640894 -3.02 0.003 -.3193287 -.0681028 rgdppclo | .000191 .0000366 5.22 0.000 .0001193 .0002626 gdpcontg | -.000266 .000071 -3.75 0.000 -.0004052 -.0001269 contig | 3.795984 .3447704 11.01 0.000 3.120246 4.471722 logdstab | -.5777973 .1003199 -5.76 0.000 -.7744208 -.3811738 majpdyds | 1.185012 .3471717 3.41 0.001 .5045676 1.865456 alliesr | -.1711526 .3471718 -0.49 0.622 -.8515968 .5092917 lncaprt | -.1368207 .070101 -1.95 0.051 -.2742161 .0005748 namerica | .5688753 .5721125 0.99 0.320 -.5524446 1.690195 samerica | .9726457 .5961333 1.63 0.103 -.1957541 2.141046 europe | -.939253 .5318774 -1.77 0.077 -1.981713 .1032075 africa | .17324 .465787 0.37 0.710 -.7396858 1.086166 nafmeast | 1.393924 .3584466 3.89 0.000 .6913815 2.096466 asia | 1.453409 .4170719 3.48 0.000 .635963 2.270855 demyear1 | -.0000155 .0002285 -0.07 0.946 -.0004635 .0004324 _cons | -1.395624 .9200982 -1.52 0.129 -3.198984 .4077352 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig log > dstab majpdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia dem > year2, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2657.3123 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2350.4077 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2283.3999 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2275.9877 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2275.8312 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2275.8311 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(19) = 1433.02 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2275.8311 Pseudo R2 = 0.3963 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0111907 .0252516 0.44 0.658 -.0383016 .060683 demhi | -.012939 .0141949 -0.91 0.362 -.0407605 .0148825 deplo | -12.10635 9.755534 -1.24 0.215 -31.22684 7.014147 sun2cati | -1.306396 .2483202 -5.26 0.000 -1.793095 -.8196977 capopenl | -.1959155 .0641417 -3.05 0.002 -.3216309 -.0702001 rgdppclo | .0001946 .0000363 5.36 0.000 .0001235 .0002657 gdpcontg | -.0002644 .0000712 -3.72 0.000 -.0004039 -.0001249 contig | 3.793651 .3445174 11.01 0.000 3.118409 4.468893 logdstab | -.5777295 .1000849 -5.77 0.000 -.7738922 -.3815668 majpdyds | 1.180263 .3455767 3.42 0.001 .5029451 1.857581 alliesr | -.1642341 .3442955 -0.48 0.633 -.8390409 .5105727 lncaprt | -.1338542 .0706536 -1.89 0.058 -.2723326 .0046242 namerica | .5512106 .5639922 0.98 0.328 -.5541938 1.656615 samerica | .9658952 .5886177 1.64 0.101 -.1877743 2.119565 europe | -.9362691 .5305788 -1.76 0.078 -1.976184 .1036462 africa | .1728242 .4638964 0.37 0.709 -.736396 1.082044 nafmeast | 1.392807 .3570823 3.90 0.000 .6929384 2.092675 asia | 1.45117 .4193571 3.46 0.001 .6292457 2.273095 demyear2 | -.0001335 .0002152 -0.62 0.535 -.0005553 .0002883 _cons | -1.30201 .9131093 -1.43 0.154 -3.091671 .4876517 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *comment: basic analysis plus controls; . *replication of Oneal and Russett standard model; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr cinclo lncapr > t thirdpty fourprty namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _spline*, clu > ster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -8830.8566 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -8084.7148 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -5484.4056 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -5042.2217 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -4959.7738 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -4953.0405 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -4952.9403 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -4952.9402 Logit estimates Number of obs = 282287 Wald chi2(20) = 1806.67 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -4952.9402 Pseudo R2 = 0.4391 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0540884 .0137865 -3.92 0.000 -.0811094 -.0270673 demhi | .0343002 .0102444 3.35 0.001 .0142216 .0543789 deplo | -33.58443 14.48474 -2.32 0.020 -61.974 -5.194873 contig | 1.968202 .1968239 10.00 0.000 1.582434 2.35397 logdstab | -.5813491 .0779117 -7.46 0.000 -.7340531 -.428645 majpdyds | 1.829042 .2380799 7.68 0.000 1.362414 2.29567 alliesr | -.3700326 .1927953 -1.92 0.055 -.7479044 .0078392 cinclo | 10.48936 6.338942 1.65 0.098 -1.934737 22.91346 lncaprt | -.2035747 .0506124 -4.02 0.000 -.3027731 -.1043762 thirdpty | .3551424 .1242611 2.86 0.004 .1115951 .5986897 fourprty | 1.409833 .1304453 10.81 0.000 1.154165 1.665501 namerica | -.0271942 .3251758 -0.08 0.933 -.6645269 .6101386 samerica | .8011743 .4572477 1.75 0.080 -.0950148 1.697363 europe | -.7743248 .2614576 -2.96 0.003 -1.286772 -.2618773 africa | .6471043 .3029353 2.14 0.033 .053362 1.240847 nafmeast | .7329981 .2630761 2.79 0.005 .2173784 1.248618 asia | 1.431387 .245819 5.82 0.000 .9495908 1.913184 _spline1 | .0050069 .0004761 10.52 0.000 .0040738 .0059399 _spline2 | -.0048721 .0005684 -8.57 0.000 -.0059861 -.0037581 _spline3 | .0019781 .0003126 6.33 0.000 .0013653 .0025909 _cons | -1.035981 .6529478 -1.59 0.113 -2.315735 .243773 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding capital; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl contig logdstab majpdyds allies cincl > o lncaprt thirdpty fourprty namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia _spli > ne*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3866.2247 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2634.5259 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2241.2859 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2147.2493 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2135.2977 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2134.9358 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2134.9353 Logit estimates Number of obs = 174548 Wald chi2(21) = 1804.13 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2134.9353 Pseudo R2 = 0.4478 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0067309 .0138024 -0.49 0.626 -.0337832 .0203214 demhi | .0040444 .0118746 0.34 0.733 -.0192295 .0273183 deplo | -18.57131 10.70769 -1.73 0.083 -39.55799 2.415373 capopenl | -.1661232 .0503194 -3.30 0.001 -.2647474 -.067499 contig | 2.708193 .2884625 9.39 0.000 2.142817 3.273569 logdstab | -.4416996 .0919102 -4.81 0.000 -.6218403 -.261559 majpdyds | 1.796546 .3534316 5.08 0.000 1.103833 2.489259 alliesr | -.2866266 .2247322 -1.28 0.202 -.7270937 .1538404 cinclo | -10.40037 14.92662 -0.70 0.486 -39.65601 18.85526 lncaprt | -.101553 .0592946 -1.71 0.087 -.2177684 .0146623 thirdpty | .4413995 .1774035 2.49 0.013 .093695 .789104 fourprty | 1.198815 .1723374 6.96 0.000 .8610401 1.53659 namerica | .4718853 .4474718 1.05 0.292 -.4051434 1.348914 samerica | .624473 .4023386 1.55 0.121 -.1640962 1.413042 europe | -.7159343 .5028233 -1.42 0.154 -1.70145 .2695813 africa | .3668815 .3460387 1.06 0.289 -.3113419 1.045105 nafmeast | .4983426 .2961306 1.68 0.092 -.0820626 1.078748 asia | .9597594 .3702317 2.59 0.010 .2341187 1.6854 _spline1 | .0043917 .0005936 7.40 0.000 .0032283 .0055551 _spline2 | -.0040129 .0006799 -5.90 0.000 -.0053454 -.0026804 _spline3 | .0014657 .0003504 4.18 0.000 .0007789 .0021525 _cons | -1.604394 .7842325 -2.05 0.041 -3.141462 -.0673269 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding GDP/pop.; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo contig logdstab majpdyds all > ies cinclo lncaprt thirdpty fourprty namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast a > sia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3844.7016 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2608.7929 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2219.3142 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2126.4253 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2114.3949 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2114.0221 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2114.0216 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171509 Wald chi2(22) = 1777.46 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2114.0216 Pseudo R2 = 0.4501 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0099977 .0139548 -0.72 0.474 -.0373485 .0173532 demhi | .0042656 .0118013 0.36 0.718 -.0188645 .0273956 deplo | -23.28182 13.54143 -1.72 0.086 -49.82254 3.258908 capopenl | -.1848837 .0582672 -3.17 0.002 -.2990853 -.0706822 rgdppclo | .0000483 .0000374 1.29 0.197 -.0000251 .0001217 contig | 2.71866 .2913573 9.33 0.000 2.14761 3.28971 logdstab | -.4321282 .0915435 -4.72 0.000 -.6115501 -.2527063 majpdyds | 1.763928 .3530925 5.00 0.000 1.071879 2.455976 alliesr | -.2756721 .2224022 -1.24 0.215 -.7115724 .1602283 cinclo | -13.01127 14.36406 -0.91 0.365 -41.16431 15.14177 lncaprt | -.1064894 .0596881 -1.78 0.074 -.2234761 .0104972 thirdpty | .4123036 .1758629 2.34 0.019 .0676187 .7569886 fourprty | 1.151646 .1696428 6.79 0.000 .8191524 1.48414 namerica | .4948612 .4484146 1.10 0.270 -.3840152 1.373738 samerica | .5971064 .4037076 1.48 0.139 -.1941459 1.388359 europe | -.7673311 .498627 -1.54 0.124 -1.744622 .2099598 africa | .4474789 .3496176 1.28 0.201 -.237759 1.132717 nafmeast | .4325811 .30727 1.41 0.159 -.1696571 1.034819 asia | 1.012294 .3677067 2.75 0.006 .2916026 1.732986 _spline1 | .0043207 .0005899 7.32 0.000 .0031644 .0054769 _spline2 | -.0039292 .0006766 -5.81 0.000 -.0052553 -.002603 _spline3 | .0014257 .0003498 4.08 0.000 .0007402 .0021113 _cons | -1.712773 .7789961 -2.20 0.028 -3.239578 -.1859689 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding contiguity x GDP/pop.; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig logdstab maj > pdyds allies cinclo lncaprt thirdpty fourprty namerica samerica europe africa n > afmeast asia _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3844.7016 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2592.246 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2199.8514 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2103.7061 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2090.2911 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2089.8212 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2089.8203 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171509 Wald chi2(23) = 1806.01 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2089.8203 Pseudo R2 = 0.4564 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0049994 .0127284 -0.39 0.694 -.0299466 .0199477 demhi | .0039408 .0119019 0.33 0.741 -.0193865 .0272681 deplo | -5.170684 8.35584 -0.62 0.536 -21.54783 11.20646 capopenl | -.1807641 .0562024 -3.22 0.001 -.2909188 -.0706094 rgdppclo | .0002039 .0000361 5.65 0.000 .0001331 .0002747 gdpcontg | -.0002855 .0000476 -5.99 0.000 -.0003789 -.0001921 contig | 3.394135 .2990637 11.35 0.000 2.807981 3.980289 logdstab | -.4047518 .0882684 -4.59 0.000 -.5777546 -.2317489 majpdyds | 1.745071 .3415538 5.11 0.000 1.075638 2.414504 alliesr | -.2537592 .2189102 -1.16 0.246 -.6828152 .1752969 cinclo | -5.861733 16.72502 -0.35 0.726 -38.64218 26.91871 lncaprt | -.104155 .0573626 -1.82 0.069 -.2165837 .0082737 thirdpty | .3396775 .1707361 1.99 0.047 .005041 .6743141 fourprty | 1.11158 .1611132 6.90 0.000 .7958038 1.427356 namerica | .5365978 .4518055 1.19 0.235 -.3489246 1.42212 samerica | .6603976 .3964449 1.67 0.096 -.1166201 1.437415 europe | -.7056601 .4554958 -1.55 0.121 -1.598416 .1870953 africa | .318649 .3495871 0.91 0.362 -.3665291 1.003827 nafmeast | .5481217 .294312 1.86 0.063 -.0287192 1.124962 asia | .8233091 .3805288 2.16 0.030 .0774864 1.569132 _spline1 | .0043046 .0005854 7.35 0.000 .0031573 .0054519 _spline2 | -.0039249 .0006732 -5.83 0.000 -.0052443 -.0026054 _spline3 | .0014376 .0003488 4.12 0.000 .0007541 .0021212 _cons | -2.268043 .7676763 -2.95 0.003 -3.772661 -.7634248 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding interests; . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg sun2cati contig log > dstab majpdyds allies cinclo lncaprt thirdpty fourprty _spline*, cluster(dyadid > ); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2582.7882 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2163.0228 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2049.6578 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2033.7693 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2033.1177 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2033.116 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -2033.116 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(18) = 1798.41 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2033.116 Pseudo R2 = 0.4607 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0018235 .0118832 -0.15 0.878 -.0251142 .0214672 demhi | -.010382 .0122867 -0.84 0.398 -.0344634 .0136994 deplo | -.1489235 8.609303 -0.02 0.986 -17.02285 16.725 capopenl | -.1673193 .0555867 -3.01 0.003 -.2762673 -.0583713 rgdppclo | .000195 .0000336 5.80 0.000 .0001291 .000261 gdpcontg | -.0003072 .0000496 -6.20 0.000 -.0004044 -.0002101 sun2cati | -.9183642 .1955514 -4.70 0.000 -1.301638 -.5350906 contig | 3.687835 .271739 13.57 0.000 3.155236 4.220433 logdstab | -.4004205 .0805316 -4.97 0.000 -.5582595 -.2425816 majpdyds | 1.083378 .2766028 3.92 0.000 .5412466 1.62551 alliesr | -.0713284 .2147637 -0.33 0.740 -.4922576 .3496007 cinclo | 17.05995 9.335976 1.83 0.068 -1.238227 35.35813 lncaprt | -.0804278 .0571133 -1.41 0.159 -.1923678 .0315122 thirdpty | .4223852 .1710208 2.47 0.014 .0871906 .7575799 fourprty | 1.190984 .1607307 7.41 0.000 .8759577 1.506011 _spline1 | .0044401 .0005793 7.66 0.000 .0033047 .0055756 _spline2 | -.004055 .0006749 -6.01 0.000 -.0053778 -.0027321 _spline3 | .0014891 .0003538 4.21 0.000 .0007957 .0021826 _cons | -1.607477 .7085557 -2.27 0.023 -2.996221 -.2187335 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *comment: replicating table 1, basic analysis using GEE; . *replication of Oneal and Russett standard model; . xtgee maoznewl demlo demhi deplo contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr lncaprt namer > ica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia , family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar > 1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 809 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .11509405 Iteration 2: tolerance = .01224447 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00185445 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00025718 Iteration 5: tolerance = .0000353 Iteration 6: tolerance = 4.834e-06 Iteration 7: tolerance = 6.616e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 281478 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 11090 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 25.4 Correlation: AR(1) max = 43 Wald chi2(14) = 1303.82 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0531397 .0130541 -4.07 0.000 -.0787252 -.0275542 demhi | .0334882 .0096856 3.46 0.001 .0145048 .0524716 deplo | -66.05208 24.18166 -2.73 0.006 -113.4473 -18.65689 contig | 2.344697 .2153391 10.89 0.000 1.92264 2.766754 logdstab | -.7342134 .0870592 -8.43 0.000 -.9048463 -.5635805 majpdyds | 2.572773 .2554316 10.07 0.000 2.072136 3.07341 alliesr | -.7243313 .2188055 -3.31 0.001 -1.153182 -.2954804 lncaprt | -.2866697 .0585932 -4.89 0.000 -.4015103 -.171829 namerica | .2147538 .3559832 0.60 0.546 -.4829604 .9124679 samerica | 1.369177 .5239232 2.61 0.009 .3423065 2.396048 europe | -.9911568 .3081657 -3.22 0.001 -1.59515 -.3871632 africa | .5755495 .3594858 1.60 0.109 -.1290298 1.280129 nafmeast | 1.662519 .2813093 5.91 0.000 1.111163 2.213875 asia | 1.454496 .2477096 5.87 0.000 .9689942 1.939998 _cons | -.7172628 .746134 -0.96 0.336 -2.179659 .745133 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding capital; . xtgee maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl contig logdstab majpdyds allies lncap > rt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia , family(binomial) link(logit) > corr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 2138 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .15002239 Iteration 2: tolerance = .00150086 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00004734 Iteration 4: tolerance = 2.950e-06 Iteration 5: tolerance = 1.414e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 172410 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 8469 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 20.4 Correlation: AR(1) max = 27 Wald chi2(15) = 1403.93 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0027017 .0138724 -0.19 0.846 -.0298911 .0244878 demhi | .0088228 .0128893 0.68 0.494 -.0164396 .0340853 deplo | -20.00969 10.52508 -1.90 0.057 -40.63847 .6190885 capopenl | -.1780722 .0481685 -3.70 0.000 -.2724808 -.0836636 contig | 3.107421 .3244058 9.58 0.000 2.471597 3.743244 logdstab | -.6585214 .1007899 -6.53 0.000 -.856066 -.4609767 majpdyds | 1.74173 .367246 4.74 0.000 1.021941 2.461519 alliesr | -.6138198 .3042454 -2.02 0.044 -1.21013 -.0175098 lncaprt | -.1039078 .0647652 -1.60 0.109 -.2308452 .0230296 namerica | .7049744 .5225035 1.35 0.177 -.3191136 1.729062 samerica | .9353092 .5780604 1.62 0.106 -.1976684 2.068287 europe | -1.377904 .5414346 -2.54 0.011 -2.439096 -.3167115 africa | .3827333 .461738 0.83 0.407 -.5222565 1.287723 nafmeast | 1.546141 .3596917 4.30 0.000 .8411583 2.251124 asia | .9441567 .3824355 2.47 0.014 .1945968 1.693717 _cons | -1.339387 .8809848 -1.52 0.128 -3.066086 .3873113 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding GDP/pop.; . xtgee maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo contig logdstab majpdyds all > ies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia , family(binomial) li > nk(logit) corr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 2107 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .17147465 Iteration 2: tolerance = .00244376 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00008017 Iteration 4: tolerance = 4.602e-06 Iteration 5: tolerance = 2.353e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 169402 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 8257 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 20.5 Correlation: AR(1) max = 27 Wald chi2(16) = 1467.60 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0058847 .0144974 -0.41 0.685 -.0342991 .0225296 demhi | .0094589 .0128064 0.74 0.460 -.0156413 .034559 deplo | -23.13875 11.25964 -2.06 0.040 -45.20724 -1.070268 capopenl | -.1912678 .0561226 -3.41 0.001 -.3012661 -.0812696 rgdppclo | .00004 .0000419 0.96 0.339 -.0000421 .0001221 contig | 3.121201 .3307635 9.44 0.000 2.472917 3.769486 logdstab | -.6452874 .1008472 -6.40 0.000 -.8429444 -.4476305 majpdyds | 1.706761 .3606025 4.73 0.000 .9999927 2.413528 alliesr | -.5940532 .3000208 -1.98 0.048 -1.182083 -.0060232 lncaprt | -.105267 .0652924 -1.61 0.107 -.2332378 .0227039 namerica | .7337257 .5190835 1.41 0.158 -.2836592 1.751111 samerica | .9046851 .5779813 1.57 0.118 -.2281374 2.037508 europe | -1.474296 .5524759 -2.67 0.008 -2.557129 -.3914635 africa | .4998648 .4669791 1.07 0.284 -.4153975 1.415127 nafmeast | 1.491451 .3652763 4.08 0.000 .7755228 2.20738 asia | .9994481 .3865182 2.59 0.010 .2418864 1.75701 _cons | -1.512823 .8746181 -1.73 0.084 -3.227043 .2013966 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding contiguity x GDP/pop.; . xtgee maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig logdstab maj > pdyds allies lncaprt namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia , family(bin > omial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 2107 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .21609542 Iteration 2: tolerance = .00204099 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00002865 Iteration 4: tolerance = 1.763e-06 Iteration 5: tolerance = 7.304e-08 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 169402 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 8257 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 20.5 Correlation: AR(1) max = 27 Wald chi2(17) = 1440.33 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0047224 .0136953 -0.34 0.730 -.0315646 .0221199 demhi | .0089449 .0131606 0.68 0.497 -.0168494 .0347393 deplo | -11.79634 8.65788 -1.36 0.173 -28.76548 5.172789 capopenl | -.188378 .0557462 -3.38 0.001 -.2976386 -.0791173 rgdppclo | .000189 .000035 5.40 0.000 .0001205 .0002576 gdpcontg | -.0002737 .0000663 -4.13 0.000 -.0004036 -.0001437 contig | 3.797031 .3676921 10.33 0.000 3.076368 4.517694 logdstab | -.6259491 .1000768 -6.25 0.000 -.8220961 -.4298022 majpdyds | 1.712921 .3554131 4.82 0.000 1.016324 2.409518 alliesr | -.5942452 .3026215 -1.96 0.050 -1.187372 -.0011181 lncaprt | -.1006385 .0645919 -1.56 0.119 -.2272364 .0259593 namerica | .7149799 .5340902 1.34 0.181 -.3318178 1.761778 samerica | .9215588 .5711735 1.61 0.107 -.1979207 2.041038 europe | -1.269787 .5528345 -2.30 0.022 -2.353322 -.1862511 africa | .3662766 .4773494 0.77 0.443 -.569311 1.301864 nafmeast | 1.566265 .3635126 4.31 0.000 .8537931 2.278736 asia | .8551532 .397582 2.15 0.031 .0759069 1.6344 _cons | -2.030289 .8857068 -2.29 0.022 -3.766242 -.2943352 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *adding interests; . xtgee maoznewl demlo demhi deplo capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg sun2cati contig log > dstab majpdyds allies lncaprt, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force rob > ust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 1828 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .09913455 Iteration 2: tolerance = .00197732 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00006551 Iteration 4: tolerance = 3.318e-06 Iteration 5: tolerance = 1.242e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 164312 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 8048 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 20.4 Correlation: AR(1) max = 27 Wald chi2(12) = 1259.64 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0220181 .014306 -1.54 0.124 -.0500574 .0060211 demhi | -.0092536 .0144094 -0.64 0.521 -.0374955 .0189882 deplo | -21.23819 16.54768 -1.28 0.199 -53.67103 11.19466 capopenl | -.2398542 .0615213 -3.90 0.000 -.3604337 -.1192747 rgdppclo | .0002133 .0000356 6.00 0.000 .0001436 .0002829 gdpcontg | -.0002637 .0000643 -4.10 0.000 -.0003898 -.0001377 sun2cati | -1.085376 .2240551 -4.84 0.000 -1.524516 -.6462363 contig | 4.219072 .3351654 12.59 0.000 3.56216 4.875984 logdstab | -.5887675 .0875709 -6.72 0.000 -.7604033 -.4171317 majpdyds | .9077905 .3131602 2.90 0.004 .2940078 1.521573 alliesr | -.3135722 .2872167 -1.09 0.275 -.8765066 .2493622 lncaprt | -.0922419 .0676768 -1.36 0.173 -.224886 .0404021 _cons | -1.361445 .8033533 -1.69 0.090 -2.935988 .2130988 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *comment: different measures of democracy using GEE; . *demdummy; . xtgee maoznewl demdumy2 deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppcln gdplnctg contig logdst > ab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europe a > frica nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 1998 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .23550636 Iteration 2: tolerance = .01221186 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00208733 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00018762 Iteration 5: tolerance = .00001263 Iteration 6: tolerance = 7.849e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 193191 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 9829 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 19.7 Correlation: AR(1) max = 27 Wald chi2(20) = 1443.54 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demdumy2 | -.212776 .2711425 -0.78 0.433 -.7442056 .3186537 deplo | -6.308362 9.019102 -0.70 0.484 -23.98548 11.36875 sun2cati | -1.161566 .2206243 -5.26 0.000 -1.593982 -.7291508 capopenl | -.1735443 .0507673 -3.42 0.001 -.2730465 -.0740422 rgdppcln | .8325228 .1551291 5.37 0.000 .5284754 1.13657 gdplnctg | -1.186328 .2008717 -5.91 0.000 -1.580029 -.7926268 contig | 12.04312 1.543094 7.80 0.000 9.018707 15.06752 logdstab | -.5794047 .0969247 -5.98 0.000 -.7693736 -.3894358 majpdyds | 1.04197 .3386914 3.08 0.002 .3781473 1.705793 alliesr | -.1079923 .2887364 -0.37 0.708 -.6739051 .4579206 thirdpty | -.0815218 .1506379 -0.54 0.588 -.3767667 .2137231 fourprty | .4768435 .1382317 3.45 0.001 .2059143 .7477728 cinclo | 16.1392 8.46233 1.91 0.056 -.4466606 32.72506 lncaprt | -.0929423 .0660345 -1.41 0.159 -.2223675 .0364829 namerica | .3811916 .5079964 0.75 0.453 -.614463 1.376846 samerica | .9875117 .5189594 1.90 0.057 -.0296301 2.004653 europe | -.9025883 .4917957 -1.84 0.066 -1.86649 .0613134 africa | .0272351 .4679298 0.06 0.954 -.8898905 .9443608 nafmeast | 1.26433 .371055 3.41 0.001 .5370756 1.991585 asia | 1.244149 .424381 2.93 0.003 .4123775 2.075921 _cons | -7.523991 1.416252 -5.31 0.000 -10.29979 -4.748187 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *idlo idhi Vanhanen data; . xtgee maoznewl idlo idhi tradelo sun2cati iecofrel rgdppcln gdplnctg contig log > dstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europ > e africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 209 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .3782461 Iteration 2: tolerance = .05304907 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00083267 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00016888 Iteration 5: tolerance = 4.842e-06 Iteration 6: tolerance = 5.351e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 88940 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 5825 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 15.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 23 Wald chi2(21) = 909.68 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- idlo | .0053123 .0134884 0.39 0.694 -.0211244 .031749 idhi | -.0072545 .0117088 -0.62 0.536 -.0302034 .0156944 tradelo | -.8315899 9.027565 -0.09 0.927 -18.52529 16.86211 sun2cati | -1.313104 .3135515 -4.19 0.000 -1.927654 -.6985547 iecofrel | -.5108851 .1039089 -4.92 0.000 -.7145428 -.3072274 rgdppcln | .9244176 .1870571 4.94 0.000 .5577924 1.291043 gdplnctg | -.6329192 .2673427 -2.37 0.018 -1.156901 -.1089372 contig | 7.798084 2.163989 3.60 0.000 3.556742 12.03942 logdstab | -.5491459 .1451884 -3.78 0.000 -.83371 -.2645818 majpdyds | .7723756 .3816253 2.02 0.043 .0244038 1.520347 alliesr | -.0093335 .419608 -0.02 0.982 -.8317501 .8130831 thirdpty | .3715882 .2248209 1.65 0.098 -.0690526 .812229 fourprty | .6693899 .2207751 3.03 0.002 .2366787 1.102101 cinclo | .2485237 5.92655 0.04 0.967 -11.3673 11.86435 lncaprt | -.0675639 .1076587 -0.63 0.530 -.2785712 .1434433 namerica | .5166878 .6593492 0.78 0.433 -.7756128 1.808988 samerica | .5766833 .7155591 0.81 0.420 -.8257867 1.979153 europe | -.8664031 .5013753 -1.73 0.084 -1.849081 .1162745 africa | .2633844 .7458481 0.35 0.724 -1.198451 1.72522 nafmeast | .7885288 .5191098 1.52 0.129 -.2289078 1.805965 asia | 2.02062 .5499269 3.67 0.000 .9427831 3.098457 _cons | -6.743315 1.986024 -3.40 0.001 -10.63585 -2.85078 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *jntid Vanhanen data and KAOPEN data; . xtgee maoznewl jntid tradelo sun2cati kaopenlo rgdppcln gdplnctg contig logdsta > b majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europe af > rica nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 1 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .16432697 Iteration 2: tolerance = .02171996 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00111357 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00011473 Iteration 5: tolerance = 3.156e-06 Iteration 6: tolerance = 3.418e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 76555 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 5145 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 14.9 Correlation: AR(1) max = 16 Wald chi2(20) = 727.35 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- jntid | -.0004068 .0005235 -0.78 0.437 -.0014328 .0006192 tradelo | -7.8617 13.43092 -0.59 0.558 -34.18583 18.46243 sun2cati | -.9672812 .3920721 -2.47 0.014 -1.735728 -.1988339 kaopenlo | -.2930144 .13703 -2.14 0.032 -.5615882 -.0244405 rgdppcln | .8110107 .2111142 3.84 0.000 .3972344 1.224787 gdplnctg | -1.144307 .2868276 -3.99 0.000 -1.706478 -.5821351 contig | 11.54349 2.30802 5.00 0.000 7.019858 16.06713 logdstab | -.8064274 .1756182 -4.59 0.000 -1.150633 -.462222 majpdyds | .9923443 .4886363 2.03 0.042 .0346347 1.950054 alliesr | .0318679 .4381906 0.07 0.942 -.8269699 .8907056 thirdpty | .3077124 .2476552 1.24 0.214 -.1776829 .7931077 fourprty | .7834004 .2399658 3.26 0.001 .3130761 1.253725 cinclo | 66.4473 18.06177 3.68 0.000 31.04688 101.8477 lncaprt | .0408715 .1061572 0.39 0.700 -.1671929 .2489358 namerica | .0527815 .6650723 0.08 0.937 -1.250736 1.356299 samerica | .6588049 .7749643 0.85 0.395 -.8600973 2.177707 europe | -1.351528 .9826992 -1.38 0.169 -3.277583 .5745274 africa | -.5741016 .800162 -0.72 0.473 -2.14239 .9941871 nafmeast | .5529882 .6086947 0.91 0.364 -.6400314 1.746008 asia | 1.747966 .6227798 2.81 0.005 .5273398 2.968592 _cons | -7.027874 2.419807 -2.90 0.004 -11.77061 -2.28514 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *gasdemlo gasdemhi Gastil Freedom House data; . xtgee maoznewl gasdemlo gasdemhi tradelo sun2cati fdi_gdpl rgdppcln gdplnctg cn > tigdum logdist majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samer > ica europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force r > obust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 457 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = 1.058473 Iteration 2: tolerance = .08543657 Iteration 3: tolerance = .0288831 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00510594 Iteration 5: tolerance = .00155217 Iteration 6: tolerance = .00057849 Iteration 7: tolerance = .00008114 Iteration 8: tolerance = .00003878 Iteration 9: tolerance = 8.342e-06 Iteration 10: tolerance = 2.542e-06 Iteration 11: tolerance = 7.592e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 97616 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 7357 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 13.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 18 Wald chi2(21) = 899.86 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- gasdemlo | -.0409703 .0459193 -0.89 0.372 -.1309704 .0490298 gasdemhi | .037767 .0555531 0.68 0.497 -.0711151 .1466491 tradelo | -27.78874 24.81818 -1.12 0.263 -76.43147 20.85399 sun2cati | -1.233301 .3782062 -3.26 0.001 -1.974571 -.4920304 fdi_gdpl | -1.017832 .4352679 -2.34 0.019 -1.870942 -.1647226 rgdppcln | .3710453 .2327791 1.59 0.111 -.0851934 .827284 gdplnctg | .0627457 .1343459 0.47 0.640 -.2005674 .3260588 cntigdum | 2.846441 1.037741 2.74 0.006 .8125055 4.880376 logdist | -.5606839 .1380714 -4.06 0.000 -.8312989 -.290069 majpdyds | 1.729804 .4676628 3.70 0.000 .8132016 2.646406 alliesr | .500085 .4602003 1.09 0.277 -.4018911 1.402061 thirdpty | .1836964 .2465409 0.75 0.456 -.2995148 .6669077 fourprty | .4734375 .2243518 2.11 0.035 .0337161 .9131589 cinclo | -.2986129 10.07415 -0.03 0.976 -20.04358 19.44636 lncaprt | -.178881 .1024215 -1.75 0.081 -.3796235 .0218615 namerica | .1314181 .7273876 0.18 0.857 -1.294235 1.557072 samerica | .527003 .786016 0.67 0.503 -1.01356 2.067566 europe | -2.048609 .8672062 -2.36 0.018 -3.748302 -.3489163 africa | -.1181373 .7150057 -0.17 0.869 -1.519523 1.283248 nafmeast | .4770844 .6126248 0.78 0.436 -.7236382 1.677807 asia | 1.640604 .6415782 2.56 0.011 .3831342 2.898074 _cons | -4.496691 2.125694 -2.12 0.034 -8.662975 -.3304067 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *jtgasdem Gastil Freedom House data; . xtgee maoznewl jtgasdem tradelo sun2cati fdi_gdpl rgdppcln gdplnctg cntigdum lo > gdist majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europ > e africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 457 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .91686386 Iteration 2: tolerance = .04808706 Iteration 3: tolerance = .01756161 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00324927 Iteration 5: tolerance = .00178596 Iteration 6: tolerance = .00024864 Iteration 7: tolerance = .00004936 Iteration 8: tolerance = .00001699 Iteration 9: tolerance = 3.880e-06 Iteration 10: tolerance = 1.250e-06 Iteration 11: tolerance = 2.999e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 97616 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 7357 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 13.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 18 Wald chi2(20) = 875.56 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- jtgasdem | -.0038093 .0043327 -0.88 0.379 -.0123012 .0046827 tradelo | -29.10849 25.0059 -1.16 0.244 -78.11916 19.90218 sun2cati | -1.320188 .3738202 -3.53 0.000 -2.052862 -.5875139 fdi_gdpl | -.9981127 .4296226 -2.32 0.020 -1.840158 -.1560678 rgdppcln | .4091137 .2354494 1.74 0.082 -.0523587 .8705862 gdplnctg | .0684426 .1332466 0.51 0.607 -.1927159 .3296012 cntigdum | 2.774332 1.026316 2.70 0.007 .7627907 4.785874 logdist | -.5705439 .1393021 -4.10 0.000 -.843571 -.2975167 majpdyds | 1.735441 .4855866 3.57 0.000 .7837083 2.687173 alliesr | .4750784 .4437617 1.07 0.284 -.3946786 1.344835 thirdpty | .1814678 .2454565 0.74 0.460 -.299618 .6625537 fourprty | .4675164 .218764 2.14 0.033 .0387469 .8962859 cinclo | 1.665681 9.642527 0.17 0.863 -17.23333 20.56469 lncaprt | -.1802363 .1026767 -1.76 0.079 -.3814788 .0210063 namerica | .1530386 .7343494 0.21 0.835 -1.28626 1.592337 samerica | .5232321 .7879231 0.66 0.507 -1.021069 2.067533 europe | -1.995409 .8613165 -2.32 0.021 -3.683558 -.3072599 africa | -.2528447 .7044273 -0.36 0.720 -1.633497 1.127807 nafmeast | .3307727 .6118255 0.54 0.589 -.8683833 1.529929 asia | 1.568187 .6429628 2.44 0.015 .308003 2.828371 _cons | -4.292503 2.110148 -2.03 0.042 -8.428316 -.15669 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *comment: replicating table 2, different IMF measures using GEE; . *capopenl; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg co > ntig distance majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force ro > bust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 1227 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .21929507 Iteration 2: tolerance = .09904413 Iteration 3: tolerance = .01091447 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00126856 Iteration 5: tolerance = .00013827 Iteration 6: tolerance = .00001534 Iteration 7: tolerance = 1.678e-06 Iteration 8: tolerance = 1.844e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 177864 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 8769 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 20.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 27 Wald chi2(21) = 1375.58 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0131238 .0271449 -0.48 0.629 -.0663269 .0400793 polityhi | -.0054956 .023937 -0.23 0.818 -.0524112 .0414201 tradelo | -1.766376 8.043063 -0.22 0.826 -17.53049 13.99774 sun2cati | -1.293409 .188192 -6.87 0.000 -1.662259 -.9245598 capopenl | -.1430741 .048045 -2.98 0.003 -.2372407 -.0489076 rgdppclo | .0001493 .0000292 5.11 0.000 .0000921 .0002066 gdpcontg | -.0002704 .0000573 -4.72 0.000 -.0003827 -.000158 contig | 3.622098 .2538654 14.27 0.000 3.124531 4.119665 distance | -.0002483 .0000551 -4.50 0.000 -.0003563 -.0001402 majpdyds | 1.094367 .3308859 3.31 0.001 .4458422 1.742891 alliesr | -.2187011 .2623498 -0.83 0.404 -.7328974 .2954951 thirdpty | .0261717 .1430065 0.18 0.855 -.2541159 .3064593 fourprty | .4484306 .1377657 3.26 0.001 .1784148 .7184464 cinclo | 16.5126 10.02432 1.65 0.100 -3.134699 36.15991 lncaprt | -.1443388 .0653579 -2.21 0.027 -.2724379 -.0162398 namerica | .3182385 .5510942 0.58 0.564 -.7618862 1.398363 samerica | .5984676 .5342019 1.12 0.263 -.448549 1.645484 europe | -.8787602 .4434187 -1.98 0.048 -1.747845 -.0096755 africa | .1305662 .3634455 0.36 0.719 -.581774 .8429063 nafmeast | 1.05469 .2870462 3.67 0.000 .4920897 1.61729 asia | 1.048421 .394567 2.66 0.008 .2750841 1.821758 _cons | -4.438667 .3686941 -12.04 0.000 -5.161294 -3.71604 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *capitall; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati capitall rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force ro > bust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 322 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .22858214 Iteration 2: tolerance = .01152993 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00189541 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00006833 Iteration 5: tolerance = 6.521e-06 Iteration 6: tolerance = 3.092e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 77685 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 5859 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 13.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 18 Wald chi2(21) = 706.92 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0383794 .0399623 -0.96 0.337 -.1167042 .0399453 polityhi | .0048971 .05222 0.09 0.925 -.0974522 .1072464 tradelo | -17.04067 14.62151 -1.17 0.244 -45.6983 11.61696 sun2cati | -1.246795 .3826751 -3.26 0.001 -1.996825 -.4967658 capitall | -.1861239 .0718901 -2.59 0.010 -.3270259 -.0452218 rgdppcln | 1.160145 .23215 5.00 0.000 .705139 1.61515 gdplnctg | -1.011479 .3084353 -3.28 0.001 -1.616001 -.4069573 contig | 10.43552 2.470408 4.22 0.000 5.593608 15.27743 logdstab | -.8022223 .1733937 -4.63 0.000 -1.142068 -.4623769 majpdyds | .9005849 .4561246 1.97 0.048 .006597 1.794573 alliesr | .3494266 .4722512 0.74 0.459 -.5761689 1.275022 thirdpty | .1844358 .25925 0.71 0.477 -.3236848 .6925564 fourprty | .4898943 .240653 2.04 0.042 .018223 .9615655 cinclo | 16.66126 9.480173 1.76 0.079 -1.91954 35.24205 lncaprt | -.0811405 .1068508 -0.76 0.448 -.2905643 .1282832 namerica | .2922792 .7118084 0.41 0.681 -1.10284 1.687398 samerica | .9416609 .7856802 1.20 0.231 -.5982439 2.481566 europe | -1.723934 .7576523 -2.28 0.023 -3.208905 -.2389628 africa | -.3407584 .7564833 -0.45 0.652 -1.823439 1.141922 nafmeast | .5909817 .5975903 0.99 0.323 -.5802738 1.762237 asia | 1.851672 .5792658 3.20 0.001 .7163318 2.987012 _cons | -8.538684 2.422748 -3.52 0.000 -13.28718 -3.790185 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *fdi_gdpl; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati fdi_gdpl rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force ro > bust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 322 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = 7.6466817 Iteration 2: tolerance = .11735106 Iteration 3: tolerance = .01682948 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00133681 Iteration 5: tolerance = .00002607 Iteration 6: tolerance = .00001384 Iteration 7: tolerance = 9.391e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 77685 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 5859 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 13.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 18 Wald chi2(21) = 749.43 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0095623 .0393336 -0.24 0.808 -.0866548 .0675302 polityhi | .0055368 .0507684 0.11 0.913 -.0939674 .1050411 tradelo | -9.091453 19.94096 -0.46 0.648 -48.17501 29.99211 sun2cati | -1.221491 .3831897 -3.19 0.001 -1.972529 -.4704529 fdi_gdpl | -1.276161 .5542035 -2.30 0.021 -2.36238 -.1899421 rgdppcln | 1.082624 .2246371 4.82 0.000 .6423428 1.522904 gdplnctg | -.9966799 .3180538 -3.13 0.002 -1.620054 -.3733058 contig | 10.44194 2.55349 4.09 0.000 5.437191 15.44669 logdstab | -.7343194 .1627057 -4.51 0.000 -1.053217 -.415422 majpdyds | .9465137 .4484159 2.11 0.035 .0676347 1.825393 alliesr | .333982 .4771099 0.70 0.484 -.6011361 1.2691 thirdpty | .2362648 .259165 0.91 0.362 -.2716893 .7442189 fourprty | .538642 .2367129 2.28 0.023 .0746932 1.002591 cinclo | 19.12207 9.399951 2.03 0.042 .6985002 37.54563 lncaprt | -.0650234 .1049029 -0.62 0.535 -.2706292 .1405825 namerica | .4532906 .7334832 0.62 0.537 -.9843101 1.890891 samerica | .8805072 .7942851 1.11 0.268 -.6762629 2.437277 europe | -1.836906 .7742397 -2.37 0.018 -3.354388 -.3194245 africa | -.1652698 .7676819 -0.22 0.830 -1.669899 1.339359 nafmeast | .5974874 .5945214 1.00 0.315 -.5677532 1.762728 asia | 1.886702 .5722418 3.30 0.001 .7651286 3.008275 _cons | -8.815942 2.308399 -3.82 0.000 -13.34032 -4.291563 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *portfl; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati portfl rgdppcln gdplnctg cont > ig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica > europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force robu > st; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 322 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .24170181 Iteration 2: tolerance = .01609646 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00199896 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00012582 Iteration 5: tolerance = 6.184e-06 Iteration 6: tolerance = 1.010e-06 Iteration 7: tolerance = 4.063e-08 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 77685 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 5859 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 13.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 18 Wald chi2(21) = 706.57 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0383837 .0395897 -0.97 0.332 -.1159781 .0392107 polityhi | .0040553 .0515565 0.08 0.937 -.0969935 .1051042 tradelo | -22.29961 14.41144 -1.55 0.122 -50.54552 5.946302 sun2cati | -1.260843 .3921386 -3.22 0.001 -2.02942 -.4922652 portfl | -.1315532 .0645562 -2.04 0.042 -.2580809 -.0050254 rgdppcln | 1.019402 .2173599 4.69 0.000 .5933842 1.445419 gdplnctg | -.9903202 .2975152 -3.33 0.001 -1.573439 -.4072012 contig | 10.29698 2.389366 4.31 0.000 5.613909 14.98005 logdstab | -.8007218 .178707 -4.48 0.000 -1.150981 -.4504625 majpdyds | .8827263 .4593904 1.92 0.055 -.0176623 1.783115 alliesr | .35266 .485354 0.73 0.467 -.5986165 1.303936 thirdpty | .195816 .2587572 0.76 0.449 -.3113388 .7029708 fourprty | .4879661 .2425503 2.01 0.044 .0125763 .9633559 cinclo | 17.2212 9.432356 1.83 0.068 -1.265883 35.70827 lncaprt | -.0940561 .1086811 -0.87 0.387 -.3070671 .1189549 namerica | .2845736 .7155441 0.40 0.691 -1.117867 1.687014 samerica | .9860923 .7882217 1.25 0.211 -.5587938 2.530978 europe | -1.729674 .771678 -2.24 0.025 -3.242135 -.2172125 africa | -.4255631 .7632097 -0.56 0.577 -1.921427 1.0703 nafmeast | .5558081 .6149672 0.90 0.366 -.6495055 1.761122 asia | 1.897979 .5779022 3.28 0.001 .7653118 3.030647 _cons | -7.610611 2.379914 -3.20 0.001 -12.27516 -2.946066 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *openlo and mousseau; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi demgdpln tradelo openlo sun2cati capopenl rgdp > pcln gdplnctg contig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt > namerica samerica europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) co > rr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 1853 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .2265373 Iteration 2: tolerance = .03916944 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00242268 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00033771 Iteration 5: tolerance = .00002373 Iteration 6: tolerance = 3.650e-06 Iteration 7: tolerance = 3.981e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 170214 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 8254 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 20.6 Correlation: AR(1) max = 27 Wald chi2(23) = 1440.20 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.1180048 .1637579 -0.72 0.471 -.4389644 .2029548 polityhi | -.0134465 .0257607 -0.52 0.602 -.0639366 .0370435 demgdpln | .0050876 .009796 0.52 0.604 -.0141121 .0242874 tradelo | -6.906931 9.085593 -0.76 0.447 -24.71437 10.9005 openlo | -.1119538 .576572 -0.19 0.846 -1.242014 1.018107 sun2cati | -1.219541 .1974371 -6.18 0.000 -1.60651 -.832571 capopenl | -.1700195 .0457688 -3.71 0.000 -.2597248 -.0803142 rgdppcln | .8727433 .1340088 6.51 0.000 .6100909 1.135396 gdplnctg | -1.176057 .1711875 -6.87 0.000 -1.511578 -.8405355 contig | 11.6162 1.305406 8.90 0.000 9.057649 14.17475 logdstab | -.619153 .1006306 -6.15 0.000 -.8163853 -.4219207 majpdyds | 1.131019 .3151767 3.59 0.000 .5132844 1.748754 alliesr | -.263616 .2952608 -0.89 0.372 -.8423166 .3150846 thirdpty | .0388405 .1355372 0.29 0.774 -.2268076 .3044886 fourprty | .4478528 .1287663 3.48 0.001 .1954755 .7002301 cinclo | 15.91831 8.396758 1.90 0.058 -.5390327 32.37566 lncaprt | -.1188447 .0658409 -1.81 0.071 -.2478906 .0102012 namerica | .4704772 .5381267 0.87 0.382 -.5842318 1.525186 samerica | 1.018503 .5702289 1.79 0.074 -.0991255 2.136131 europe | -.7999648 .4023836 -1.99 0.047 -1.588622 -.0113073 africa | .0648553 .4309977 0.15 0.880 -.7798847 .9095952 nafmeast | 1.138039 .3211664 3.54 0.000 .5085644 1.767513 asia | 1.309055 .3910157 3.35 0.001 .5426781 2.075432 _cons | -6.543155 1.267517 -5.16 0.000 -9.027441 -4.058868 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *comment: other economic measures using GEE; . *kaopenlo; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati kaopenlo rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force ro > bust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 5 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .16048319 Iteration 2: tolerance = .01389298 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00064114 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00001625 Iteration 5: tolerance = 1.739e-06 Iteration 6: tolerance = 1.121e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 68040 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 4743 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 14.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 16 Wald chi2(21) = 689.88 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0498517 .0474764 -1.05 0.294 -.1429037 .0432002 polityhi | -.0296392 .0517778 -0.57 0.567 -.1311219 .0718434 tradelo | -15.19374 18.52771 -0.82 0.412 -51.50738 21.1199 sun2cati | -1.028767 .4060159 -2.53 0.011 -1.824543 -.2329902 kaopenlo | -.3064198 .1334266 -2.30 0.022 -.567931 -.0449085 rgdppcln | .8394805 .2001556 4.19 0.000 .4471827 1.231778 gdplnctg | -1.010909 .2977889 -3.39 0.001 -1.594565 -.4272537 contig | 10.52034 2.412951 4.36 0.000 5.791045 15.24964 logdstab | -.8199883 .1779473 -4.61 0.000 -1.168759 -.471218 majpdyds | .8537857 .4929148 1.73 0.083 -.1123095 1.819881 alliesr | -.0235337 .5001021 -0.05 0.962 -1.003716 .9566483 thirdpty | .290388 .2760429 1.05 0.293 -.2506462 .8314222 fourprty | .748669 .2575516 2.91 0.004 .243877 1.253461 cinclo | 71.0664 21.03558 3.38 0.001 29.83742 112.2954 lncaprt | .098116 .1141225 0.86 0.390 -.12556 .321792 namerica | .5038395 .7366455 0.68 0.494 -.9399592 1.947638 samerica | .7013649 .820911 0.85 0.393 -.9075912 2.310321 europe | -1.290378 .8533982 -1.51 0.131 -2.963008 .3822516 africa | -.5019796 .7945605 -0.63 0.528 -2.059289 1.05533 nafmeast | .2802661 .6132615 0.46 0.648 -.9217044 1.482237 asia | 1.820263 .6538098 2.78 0.005 .5388193 3.101707 _cons | -6.826635 2.347681 -2.91 0.004 -11.428 -2.225265 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *jtkaopen; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati jtkaopen rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force ro > bust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 5 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .16603027 Iteration 2: tolerance = .01349685 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00068374 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00001188 Iteration 5: tolerance = 9.052e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 68040 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 4743 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 14.3 Correlation: AR(1) max = 16 Wald chi2(21) = 635.11 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0460465 .0462379 -1.00 0.319 -.1366712 .0445782 polityhi | -.0215286 .051721 -0.42 0.677 -.1229 .0798427 tradelo | -20.80643 19.04081 -1.09 0.275 -58.12573 16.51288 sun2cati | -1.056222 .4062606 -2.60 0.009 -1.852479 -.2599663 jtkaopen | -.0753041 .0482664 -1.56 0.119 -.1699046 .0192963 rgdppcln | .7112937 .1883732 3.78 0.000 .342089 1.080498 gdplnctg | -1.015404 .2950836 -3.44 0.001 -1.593758 -.4370512 contig | 10.60908 2.414627 4.39 0.000 5.8765 15.34167 logdstab | -.8498542 .1882731 -4.51 0.000 -1.218863 -.4808457 majpdyds | .6781325 .4891541 1.39 0.166 -.2805919 1.636857 alliesr | -.0015796 .5045764 -0.00 0.998 -.9905313 .987372 thirdpty | .2974361 .2798255 1.06 0.288 -.2510118 .8458841 fourprty | .7369686 .2572078 2.87 0.004 .2328505 1.241087 cinclo | 67.95316 20.08909 3.38 0.001 28.57925 107.3271 lncaprt | .0736854 .116814 0.63 0.528 -.1552658 .3026367 namerica | .4032395 .7314882 0.55 0.581 -1.030451 1.83693 samerica | .7069401 .8372097 0.84 0.398 -.9339609 2.347841 europe | -1.277229 .8346904 -1.53 0.126 -2.913192 .3587343 africa | -.658593 .8371879 -0.79 0.431 -2.299451 .9822652 nafmeast | .2669573 .6217793 0.43 0.668 -.9517078 1.485622 asia | 1.543853 .6477726 2.38 0.017 .2742423 2.813464 _cons | -5.261052 2.325729 -2.26 0.024 -9.819397 -.7027079 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *econfrel; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati econfrel rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force ro > bust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 766 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .0201714 Iteration 2: tolerance = .00031247 Iteration 3: tolerance = 2.155e-06 Iteration 4: tolerance = 1.049e-08 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 17117 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 4813 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 3.6 Correlation: AR(1) max = 5 Wald chi2(21) = 680.72 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | .0667656 .0501196 1.33 0.183 -.0314671 .1649983 polityhi | .1083412 .0749776 1.44 0.148 -.0386122 .2552946 tradelo | -5.264497 18.89592 -0.28 0.781 -42.29982 31.77082 sun2cati | -1.055668 .3772764 -2.80 0.005 -1.795116 -.3162202 econfrel | -.4480667 .1136505 -3.94 0.000 -.6708176 -.2253157 rgdppcln | .5157919 .3461193 1.49 0.136 -.1625894 1.194173 gdplnctg | -.4984747 .3790732 -1.31 0.189 -1.241445 .2444952 contig | 6.200748 2.969086 2.09 0.037 .3814461 12.02005 logdstab | -.7388486 .1876028 -3.94 0.000 -1.106543 -.3711538 majpdyds | 1.272428 .5017062 2.54 0.011 .2891018 2.255754 alliesr | .5965067 .5373941 1.11 0.267 -.4567664 1.64978 thirdpty | .2415042 .3691103 0.65 0.513 -.4819388 .9649471 fourprty | .5854808 .3681477 1.59 0.112 -.1360754 1.307037 cinclo | 7.336848 6.64077 1.10 0.269 -5.678822 20.35252 lncaprt | -.0962388 .1396411 -0.69 0.491 -.3699304 .1774527 namerica | .2431617 .7602237 0.32 0.749 -1.246849 1.733173 samerica | .5981971 .8356262 0.72 0.474 -1.0396 2.235994 europe | -1.52498 .6702342 -2.28 0.023 -2.838615 -.2113454 africa | .2774522 .8734382 0.32 0.751 -1.434455 1.98936 nafmeast | 1.254421 .7030991 1.78 0.074 -.1236279 2.63247 asia | 2.141665 .6307884 3.40 0.001 .9053424 3.377988 _cons | -3.841072 3.168875 -1.21 0.225 -10.05195 2.369809 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *iecofrel; . xtgee maoznewl politylo polityhi tradelo sun2cati iecofrel rgdppcln gdplnctg co > ntig logdstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica sameri > ca europe africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force ro > bust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 209 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .12192231 Iteration 2: tolerance = .02395277 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00024271 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00003867 Iteration 5: tolerance = 4.047e-07 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 80855 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 5495 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 14.7 Correlation: AR(1) max = 23 Wald chi2(21) = 1002.77 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0122066 .0377879 -0.32 0.747 -.0862696 .0618563 polityhi | .0037019 .0455125 0.08 0.935 -.085501 .0929048 tradelo | -4.692643 9.326944 -0.50 0.615 -22.97312 13.58783 sun2cati | -1.195177 .3091978 -3.87 0.000 -1.801193 -.58916 iecofrel | -.4590337 .0998842 -4.60 0.000 -.6548031 -.2632643 rgdppcln | .9089669 .1891906 4.80 0.000 .5381601 1.279774 gdplnctg | -.5616542 .2691021 -2.09 0.037 -1.089085 -.0342237 contig | 7.201053 2.193925 3.28 0.001 2.90104 11.50107 logdstab | -.572748 .1497877 -3.82 0.000 -.8663266 -.2791695 majpdyds | .6707355 .3765592 1.78 0.075 -.067307 1.408778 alliesr | -.0210339 .4231477 -0.05 0.960 -.8503881 .8083203 thirdpty | .3488909 .2310126 1.51 0.131 -.1038855 .8016673 fourprty | .670574 .2218521 3.02 0.003 .2357518 1.105396 cinclo | 4.755622 5.499314 0.86 0.387 -6.022836 15.53408 lncaprt | .0128198 .1111792 0.12 0.908 -.2050874 .2307269 namerica | .9030281 .6953162 1.30 0.194 -.4597665 2.265823 samerica | .6859034 .7442873 0.92 0.357 -.7728729 2.14468 europe | -.8796336 .4792354 -1.84 0.066 -1.818918 .0596505 africa | .53558 .7266094 0.74 0.461 -.8885482 1.959708 nafmeast | .807448 .5230621 1.54 0.123 -.2177349 1.832631 asia | 2.152427 .5498147 3.91 0.000 1.07481 3.230044 _cons | -7.009463 2.029381 -3.45 0.001 -10.98698 -3.031948 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *icapitlo; . xtgee maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati icapitlo rgdppcln gdplnctg contig log > dstab majpdyds alliesr thirdpty fourprty cinclo lncaprt namerica samerica europ > e africa nafmeast asia, family(binomial) link(logit) corr(ar1) force robust; note: some groups have fewer than 2 observations not possible to estimate correlations for those groups 90 groups omitted from estimation Iteration 1: tolerance = .13567799 Iteration 2: tolerance = .00615988 Iteration 3: tolerance = .00030059 Iteration 4: tolerance = .00002771 Iteration 5: tolerance = 1.303e-06 Iteration 6: tolerance = 7.401e-08 GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 79972 Group and time vars: dyadid year Number of groups = 3556 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 2 Family: binomial avg = 22.5 Correlation: AR(1) max = 43 Wald chi2(21) = 752.75 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | .0061061 .014865 0.41 0.681 -.0230287 .0352409 demhi | .0090064 .0214233 0.42 0.674 -.0329825 .0509953 deplo | -32.12704 20.71053 -1.55 0.121 -72.71893 8.464852 sun2cati | -.9713163 .2873177 -3.38 0.001 -1.534449 -.408184 icapitlo | -.0134772 .0065499 -2.06 0.040 -.0263148 -.0006395 rgdppcln | .6116394 .2171929 2.82 0.005 .1859492 1.03733 gdplnctg | -.8359435 .2653218 -3.15 0.002 -1.355965 -.3159223 contig | 8.469715 2.028196 4.18 0.000 4.494524 12.44491 logdstab | -.9766702 .1712484 -5.70 0.000 -1.312311 -.6410296 majpdyds | 1.495418 .3688677 4.05 0.000 .7724505 2.218385 alliesr | -.0972788 .4485624 -0.22 0.828 -.976445 .7818873 thirdpty | -.0258964 .2065877 -0.13 0.900 -.4308009 .379008 fourprty | .4701686 .1903111 2.47 0.013 .0971657 .8431714 cinclo | 19.98812 6.798114 2.94 0.003 6.66406 33.31218 lncaprt | -.1400116 .1058116 -1.32 0.186 -.3473984 .0673753 namerica | .3232502 .6324241 0.51 0.609 -.9162783 1.562779 samerica | 1.004015 .7838417 1.28 0.200 -.5322869 2.540316 europe | -1.634262 .769024 -2.13 0.034 -3.141521 -.1270024 africa | .2742995 .7040512 0.39 0.697 -1.105615 1.654214 nafmeast | 1.589826 .4583642 3.47 0.001 .6914485 2.488203 asia | 1.456936 .4812352 3.03 0.002 .5137319 2.400139 _cons | -2.589974 2.172417 -1.19 0.233 -6.847833 1.667886 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . *comment: additional tests; . corr bothwarsaw bothnato; (obs=386556) | bothwa~w bothnato -------------+------------------ bothwarsaw | 1.0000 bothnato | -0.0043 1.0000 . tab bothnato bothwarsaw; | WARSAW dummy NATO dummy | 0 1 | Total -----------+----------------------+---------- 0 | 381,732 639 | 382,371 1 | 4,185 0 | 4,185 -----------+----------------------+---------- Total | 385,917 639 | 386,556 . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati bothboth capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg c > ontig logdstab majpdyds allies lncaprt _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2627.7975 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2212.5864 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2093.0225 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2076.6124 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2075.9602 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2075.9586 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(16) = 1652.26 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2075.9586 Pseudo R2 = 0.4493 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0203765 .0122299 -1.67 0.096 -.0443466 .0035937 demhi | -.0036059 .0124264 -0.29 0.772 -.0279613 .0207494 deplo | -7.334257 9.5408 -0.77 0.442 -26.03388 11.36537 sun2cati | -.9858273 .2004319 -4.92 0.000 -1.378667 -.5929881 bothboth | .5648905 .4347161 1.30 0.194 -.2871374 1.416918 capopenl | -.2418735 .0574612 -4.21 0.000 -.3544954 -.1292516 rgdppclo | .0002401 .0000321 7.49 0.000 .0001773 .000303 gdpcontg | -.0002838 .000048 -5.92 0.000 -.0003778 -.0001898 contig | 3.763101 .2777473 13.55 0.000 3.218726 4.307475 logdstab | -.4182911 .0859178 -4.87 0.000 -.5866868 -.2498954 majpdyds | 1.385102 .2793001 4.96 0.000 .8376841 1.93252 alliesr | -.0766236 .2465623 -0.31 0.756 -.5598768 .4066296 lncaprt | -.1510138 .0550249 -2.74 0.006 -.2588606 -.0431669 _spline1 | .0047343 .0005907 8.02 0.000 .0035766 .005892 _spline2 | -.004388 .0006835 -6.42 0.000 -.0057277 -.0030483 _spline3 | .0016437 .0003552 4.63 0.000 .0009476 .0023398 _cons | -1.077566 .7693502 -1.40 0.161 -2.585465 .4303327 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati bothnato capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg c > ontig logdstab majpdyds allies lncaprt _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2627.4001 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2212.4385 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2092.852 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2076.4262 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2075.7726 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2075.7711 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(16) = 1653.71 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2075.7711 Pseudo R2 = 0.4494 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0205669 .0122835 -1.67 0.094 -.0446422 .0035084 demhi | -.0037126 .0124292 -0.30 0.765 -.0280733 .0206482 deplo | -7.371567 9.520496 -0.77 0.439 -26.0314 11.28826 sun2cati | -.9862275 .200408 -4.92 0.000 -1.37902 -.5934351 bothnato | .5946297 .440032 1.35 0.177 -.2678172 1.457076 capopenl | -.2417527 .0574416 -4.21 0.000 -.354336 -.1291693 rgdppclo | .0002397 .0000321 7.47 0.000 .0001768 .0003026 gdpcontg | -.0002842 .0000479 -5.93 0.000 -.0003781 -.0001903 contig | 3.764939 .2780866 13.54 0.000 3.219899 4.309978 logdstab | -.4183933 .0859585 -4.87 0.000 -.586869 -.2499177 majpdyds | 1.383657 .2797301 4.95 0.000 .8353962 1.931918 alliesr | -.0800066 .2470413 -0.32 0.746 -.5641987 .4041855 lncaprt | -.1511074 .0550036 -2.75 0.006 -.2589124 -.0433023 _spline1 | .0047261 .0005916 7.99 0.000 .0035666 .0058856 _spline2 | -.0043789 .0006844 -6.40 0.000 -.0057204 -.0030374 _spline3 | .0016394 .0003555 4.61 0.000 .0009425 .0023362 _cons | -1.077255 .7698652 -1.40 0.162 -2.586163 .4316528 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati bothwarsaw capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg > contig logdstab majpdyds allies lncaprt _spline*, cluster(dyadid); note: bothwarsaw != 0 predicts failure perfectly bothwarsaw dropped and 16 obs not used Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6271 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2630.2702 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2214.3759 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2094.9189 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2078.4586 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2077.8019 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2077.8003 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -2077.8003 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166124 Wald chi2(15) = 1607.69 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2077.8003 Pseudo R2 = 0.4488 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0170484 .0118823 -1.43 0.151 -.0403373 .0062404 demhi | -.0022043 .0125406 -0.18 0.860 -.0267833 .0223748 deplo | -5.303757 8.996834 -0.59 0.556 -22.93723 12.32971 sun2cati | -.9826976 .2004786 -4.90 0.000 -1.375628 -.5897669 capopenl | -.2470354 .0581371 -4.25 0.000 -.360982 -.1330887 rgdppclo | .0002481 .0000325 7.63 0.000 .0001844 .0003119 gdpcontg | -.0002777 .0000492 -5.64 0.000 -.0003742 -.0001813 contig | 3.741185 .2733294 13.69 0.000 3.20547 4.276901 logdstab | -.4163965 .0852836 -4.88 0.000 -.5835493 -.2492437 majpdyds | 1.402941 .2733981 5.13 0.000 .8670908 1.938792 alliesr | -.0063969 .2333839 -0.03 0.978 -.4638209 .4510271 lncaprt | -.1506672 .0554945 -2.71 0.007 -.2594345 -.0419 _spline1 | .0047339 .0005903 8.02 0.000 .0035769 .0058909 _spline2 | -.0043794 .0006838 -6.40 0.000 -.0057196 -.0030391 _spline3 | .001636 .0003554 4.60 0.000 .0009394 .0023326 _cons | -1.088009 .7615235 -1.43 0.153 -2.580567 .4045499 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati nuclear1 capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg c > ontig logdstab majpdyds allies lncaprt _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2616.679 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2205.4062 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2090.8433 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2075.0428 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2074.4269 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2074.4254 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(16) = 1868.98 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2074.4254 Pseudo R2 = 0.4497 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0158132 .0122166 -1.29 0.196 -.0397574 .0081309 demhi | -.0080573 .0132099 -0.61 0.542 -.0339483 .0178337 deplo | -1.582671 9.095774 -0.17 0.862 -19.41006 16.24472 sun2cati | -.8802815 .2207439 -3.99 0.000 -1.312932 -.4476314 nuclear1 | .5412393 .2988349 1.81 0.070 -.0444664 1.126945 capopenl | -.2414803 .0602355 -4.01 0.000 -.3595398 -.1234208 rgdppclo | .0002438 .0000327 7.46 0.000 .0001797 .0003078 gdpcontg | -.000287 .0000506 -5.67 0.000 -.0003862 -.0001877 contig | 3.759873 .2710865 13.87 0.000 3.228554 4.291193 logdstab | -.3762693 .0875805 -4.30 0.000 -.5479239 -.2046148 majpdyds | .9724417 .3970663 2.45 0.014 .1942061 1.750677 alliesr | .0556653 .2473724 0.23 0.822 -.4291757 .5405064 lncaprt | -.1424064 .0558116 -2.55 0.011 -.2517952 -.0330177 _spline1 | .0047085 .0005951 7.91 0.000 .0035422 .0058748 _spline2 | -.0043609 .0006863 -6.35 0.000 -.005706 -.0030159 _spline3 | .0016333 .0003548 4.60 0.000 .000938 .0023287 _cons | -1.52909 .8211511 -1.86 0.063 -3.138516 .0803366 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . logit maoznewl demlo demhi deplo sun2cati nuclear2 capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg c > ontig logdstab majpdyds allies lncaprt _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3769.6816 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2629.7455 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2213.575 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2094.2175 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2077.8441 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2077.1933 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2077.1918 Logit estimates Number of obs = 166140 Wald chi2(16) = 1618.39 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2077.1918 Pseudo R2 = 0.4490 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- demlo | -.0169974 .0119336 -1.42 0.154 -.0403867 .006392 demhi | -.0018656 .0124947 -0.15 0.881 -.0263548 .0226235 deplo | -5.581289 9.012859 -0.62 0.536 -23.24617 12.08359 sun2cati | -.9720544 .2002332 -4.85 0.000 -1.364504 -.5796045 nuclear2 | -.8751343 .9969823 -0.88 0.380 -2.829184 1.078915 capopenl | -.24687 .0579017 -4.26 0.000 -.3603553 -.1333847 rgdppclo | .000247 .0000325 7.60 0.000 .0001833 .0003107 gdpcontg | -.0002765 .0000495 -5.58 0.000 -.0003736 -.0001794 contig | 3.750661 .2730813 13.73 0.000 3.215432 4.285891 logdstab | -.4143672 .0849261 -4.88 0.000 -.5808193 -.2479151 majpdyds | 1.432998 .2776334 5.16 0.000 .8888462 1.977149 alliesr | -.0142504 .2329571 -0.06 0.951 -.470838 .4423372 lncaprt | -.1551225 .056044 -2.77 0.006 -.2649668 -.0452782 _spline1 | .0047383 .0005897 8.03 0.000 .0035825 .0058941 _spline2 | -.0043827 .000683 -6.42 0.000 -.0057213 -.003044 _spline3 | .001636 .0003551 4.61 0.000 .00094 .0023319 _cons | -1.104344 .758922 -1.46 0.146 -2.591804 .3831161 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . * more additional tests; . *data for figure 3 using model 2.1; . logit maoznewl politylo deplo sun2cati capopenl rgdppclo gdpcontg contig logdst > ab majpdyds allies lncaprt _spline*, cluster(dyadid); Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -3775.1831 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -2637.3539 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -2230.793 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -2114.0139 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -2097.4924 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -2096.8192 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -2096.8176 Logit estimates Number of obs = 171194 Wald chi2(14) = 1630.29 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log pseudolikelihood = -2096.8176 Pseudo R2 = 0.4446 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust maoznewl | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- politylo | -.0251153 .024742 -1.02 0.310 -.0736087 .0233782 deplo | -5.968127 8.587015 -0.70 0.487 -22.79837 10.86211 sun2cati | -1.006568 .1986146 -5.07 0.000 -1.395845 -.6172906 capopenl | -.2426685 .0541902 -4.48 0.000 -.3488793 -.1364577 rgdppclo | .0002298 .0000301 7.63 0.000 .0001707 .0002888 gdpcontg | -.0002656 .0000414 -6.42 0.000 -.0003467 -.0001845 contig | 3.759933 .2678127 14.04 0.000 3.23503 4.284836 logdstab | -.4214784 .0833938 -5.05 0.000 -.5849273 -.2580296 majpdyds | 1.394939 .2658665 5.25 0.000 .8738498 1.916027 alliesr | .0198731 .2208139 0.09 0.928 -.4129143 .4526605 lncaprt | -.1571295 .0549688 -2.86 0.004 -.2648663 -.0493926 _spline1 | .0045002 .0005722 7.86 0.000 .0033786 .0056217 _spline2 | -.0041202 .0006652 -6.19 0.000 -.005424 -.0028164 _spline3 | .0015124 .0003476 4.35 0.000 .0008311 .0021936 _cons | -.9536783 .7427253 -1.28 0.199 -2.409393 .5020365 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . gen temppred=politylo; (74642 missing values generated) . replace politylo=0; (362726 real changes made) . predict pmin; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . replace politylo=0+((1/4)*(2.426856-0)); (386556 real changes made) . predict p14mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . replace politylo=0+((1/2)*(2.426856-0)); (386556 real changes made) . predict p12mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . replace politylo=0+((3/4)*(2.426856-0)); (386556 real changes made) . predict p34mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . replace politylo=2.426856; (386556 real changes made) . predict pmean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . replace politylo=2.426856+((1/2)*2.792056); (386556 real changes made) . predict pm12sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . replace politylo=2.426856+(2.792056); (386556 real changes made) . predict pm1sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . replace politylo=2.426856+((2)*2.792056); (386556 real changes made) . predict pm2sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . replace politylo=10; (386556 real changes made) . predict pmax; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (175285 missing values generated) . summarize pmin p14mean p12mean p34mean pmean pm12sd pm1sd pm2sd pmax; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- pmin | 211271 .0032069 .0229952 .0000145 .7589244 p14mean | 211271 .0031665 .0227682 .0000143 .7561255 p12mean | 211271 .0031265 .0225428 .0000141 .7533047 p34mean | 211271 .003087 .0223191 .0000139 .7504621 pmean | 211271 .0030479 .0220969 .0000137 .7475976 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- pm12sd | 211271 .0029596 .021592 .0000132 .7409244 pm1sd | 211271 .0028736 .0210957 .0000127 .7341375 pm2sd | 211271 .0027083 .0201286 .0000119 .7202282 pmax | 211271 .0025958 .0194601 .0000113 .7100524 . drop pmin p14mean p12mean p34mean pmean pm12sd pm1sd pm2sd pmax; . replace politylo=temppred; (375212 real changes made, 74642 to missing) . drop temppred; . gen temppred=sun2cati; (43347 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=-1; (386064 real changes made) . predict pmin; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=-1+((1/4)*(0.7390797+1)); (386556 real changes made) . predict p14mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=-1+((1/2)*(0.7390797+1)); (386556 real changes made) . predict p12mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=-1+((3/4)*(0.7390797+1)); (386556 real changes made) . predict p34mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=0.7390797; (386556 real changes made) . predict pmean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=0.7390797+((1/4)*(1-0.7390797)); (386556 real changes made) . predict pm12sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=0.7390797+((1/2)*(1-0.7390797)); (386556 real changes made) . predict pm1sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=0.7390797+((3/4)*(1-0.7390797)); (386556 real changes made) . predict pm2sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . replace sun2cati=1; (386556 real changes made) . predict pmax; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (210148 missing values generated) . summarize pmin p14mean p12mean p34mean pmean pm12sd pm1sd pm2sd pmax; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- pmin | 176408 .011878 .0601356 .000121 .9176254 p14mean | 176408 .0087466 .0490344 .0000781 .8779208 p12mean | 176408 .0063384 .0387917 .0000504 .8227747 p34mean | 176408 .0045101 .0297551 .0000326 .7498168 pmean | 176408 .0031497 .0221502 .000021 .6592626 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- pm12sd | 176408 .0029799 .0211385 .0000197 .6443629 pm1sd | 176408 .0028181 .0201605 .0000184 .6291782 pm2sd | 176408 .0026641 .019216 .0000173 .6137337 pmax | 176408 .0025176 .0183048 .0000162 .598057 . drop pmin p14mean p12mean p34mean pmean pm12sd pm1sd pm2sd pmax; . replace sun2cati=temppred; (300507 real changes made, 43347 to missing) . drop temppred; . gen temppred=capopenl; (145956 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=0; (373833 real changes made) . predict pmin; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=((1/4)*(3.005964)); capopenl was byte now float (386556 real changes made) . predict p14mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=((1/2)*(3.005964)); (386556 real changes made) . predict p12mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=((3/4)*(3.005964)); (386556 real changes made) . predict p34mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=3.005964; (386556 real changes made) . predict pmean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=3.005964+((1/2)*1.627334); (386556 real changes made) . predict pm12sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=3.005964+1.627334; (386556 real changes made) . predict pm1sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=3.005964+((2)*1.627334); (386556 real changes made) . predict pm2sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . replace capopenl=8; (386556 real changes made) . predict pmax; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (133849 missing values generated) . summarize pmin p14mean p12mean p34mean pmean pm12sd pm1sd pm2sd pmax; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- pmin | 252707 .0083191 .0449743 .0000558 .8485359 p14mean | 252707 .0072467 .0406245 .0000465 .823581 p12mean | 252707 .0062935 .0365306 .0000388 .7955056 p34mean | 252707 .0054491 .0327014 .0000323 .7642412 pmean | 252707 .0047038 .0291414 .0000269 .7298203 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- pm12sd | 252707 .0039979 .0255915 .0000221 .6891738 pm1sd | 252707 .0033864 .0223553 .0000181 .6453836 pm2sd | 252707 .0024065 .0167925 .0000122 .5508004 pmax | 252707 .0016491 .0120944 8.01e-06 .4456693 . drop pmin p14mean p12mean p34mean pmean pm12sd pm1sd pm2sd pmax; . replace capopenl=temppred; (384056 real changes made, 145956 to missing) . drop temppred; . gen temppred=rgdppclo; (10018 missing values generated) . gen tempprd2=gdpcontg; (10018 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=221; (386482 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; (386553 real changes made) . predict pmin; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=221+((1/4)*(1760.643-221)); rgdppclo was int now float (386556 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; gdpcontg was int now float (386556 real changes made) . predict p14mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=221+((1/2)*(1760.643-221)); (386556 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; (386556 real changes made) . predict p12mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=221+((3/4)*(1760.643-221)); (386556 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; (386556 real changes made) . predict p34mean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=1760.643; (386556 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; (386556 real changes made) . predict pmean; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=1760.643+1958.456; (386556 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; (386556 real changes made) . predict pm12sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=1760.643+(2*1958.456); (386556 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; (386556 real changes made) . predict pm1sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=1760.643+(5*1958.456); (386556 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; (386556 real changes made) . predict pm2sd; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . replace rgdppclo=31969; (386556 real changes made) . replace gdpcontg=rgdppclo; (386556 real changes made) . predict pmax; (option p assumed; Pr(maoznewl)) (212556 missing values generated) . summarize pmin p14mean p12mean p34mean pmean pm12sd pm1sd pm2sd pmax; Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- pmin | 174000 .0031142 .02451 .0000103 .7821551 p14mean | 174000 .0030799 .024297 .0000102 .7797955 p12mean | 174000 .0030458 .0240854 .00001 .7774176 p34mean | 174000 .0030121 .023875 9.89e-06 .7750214 pmean | 174000 .0029787 .023666 9.76e-06 .772607 -------------+-------------------------------------------------------- pm12sd | 174000 .0028136 .0226231 9.10e-06 .7600406 pm1sd | 174000 .0026566 .0216141 8.48e-06 .7470072 pm2sd | 174000 .0022303 .0187861 6.87e-06 .7051925 pmax | 174000 .0011817 .0110934 3.30e-06 .535058 . drop pmin p14mean p12mean p34mean pmean pm12sd pm1sd pm2sd pmax; . replace rgdppclo=temppred; (386546 real changes made, 10018 to missing) . drop temppred; . replace gdpcontg=tempprd2; (386546 real changes made, 10018 to missing) . drop tempprd2; . end of do-file . exit no; data in memory would be lost r(4); . exit, clear